Florida vs. New Mexico State Complete Game Preview
New head coach Jim McElwain begins his Florida career with what should be a blowout win over New Mexico State.
McElwain replaced Will Muschamp—who was fired before the bowl game last season—after three successful years as head coach at Colorado State. The Rams went 3-9 in 2011, but McElwain arrived from Alabama, where he served as the offensive coordinator under Nick Saban, and steered them to a 4-8 record in 2012, an 8-6 record in 2013 and a 10-3 record last season.
After a spring game that was mostly ugly, Gators fans are hoping to see cohesion—especially on offense—against an Aggies team that finished 2-10 and lost its final 10 games last season.
Anything less than a thorough blowout will lead to nerves before a Birmingham Bowl rematch against East Carolina in Week 2, a road trip to Kentucky in Week 3 and then a string of five straight conference games against teams ranked in the Associated Press Top 25.
This is the only easy game until November.
Florida had better make it count.
Date: Saturday, September 5
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium; Gainesville, Fla.
TV: SEC Network
Radio: Gator Sports Network; Sirius: 119, XM: 192; Aggie Sports Network
Line: Florida -37, according to Odds Shark
Note: All recruiting info refers to the 247Sports composite rankings.
Florida Keys to Victory
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Get Something—Anything—From the Passing Game
Sophomore Treon Harris and redshirt freshman Will Grier will both see time at quarterback. McElwain confirmed as much in late August, saying the competition "will play itself out [in live action]," per Mark Long of the Associated Press.
Regardless of which QB takes the snaps, Florida needs to make something happen through the air. In last year's season opener against Eastern Michigan, which the Gators won 65-0, Jeff Driskel and Harris completed 70 percent of their passes for 396 yards and three touchdowns.
Over the rest of the season, they completed 49 percent of their passes for an average of 160.3 yards and 1.4 touchdowns per game.
Needless to say, things need work.
Pressure the Quarterback
Florida has one of the best secondaries in college football but struggled last year to rush the passer. It was sound and efficient but didn't create as many negative plays as it wanted to.
New Mexico State is a good Week 1 opponent because its offense—while by no means conservative—does well to avoid sacks. It ranked No. 3 in the country with only 10 sacks allowed last season, including zero sacks allowed in nonconference play (which included a road trip to LSU).
If Florida can get to the quarterback, it nullifies one of the few things New Mexico State does well. This will be a great early test for Jonathan Bullard, an elite run defender who is looking to become more versatile, along with youngsters such as 5-star defensive end CeCe Jefferson.
New Mexico State Keys to Victory
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Don't Turn the Ball Over
In order to win this game—or even to stay within striking distance—New Mexico State must take care of the football.
This is true of all massive underdogs, but it's especially true for an Aggies team whose quarterback, Tyler Rogers, led the country last year with 23 interceptions.
Rogers threw at least one pick in all 12 games and at one point threw 18 interceptions over an eight-game stretch. Never in that stretch did he throw fewer than two interceptions in a game. New Mexico State lost its final 10 games of the season and often played aggressively because of the scoreline, but even so, those are staggering numbers.
Even one pick will be too many at Florida.
Hope Florida's Offensive Line Is a Trainwreck
No place on Florida's roster has more questions than the offensive line. If everything breaks right, it might be decent. If everything breaks wrong, it might be a trainwreck. More likely than not, it will fall somewhere in the middle: slightly below the national average.
But we can't know for sure until the games start, which gives New Mexico State at least a tiny flicker of hope. If Florida's offensive line is the offensive line from its Darkest Timeline, the Aggies might create just enough defensive stops to hang around.
Anything short of that, however, will prevent New Mexico State from stopping the run consistently. It's defensive line is just too small. You can't defend blue-chip offensive prospects—no matter how raw and undeveloped—with defensive tackles who look like fullbacks.
It's simply not plausible.
Florida Players to Watch
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QB Will Grier
Harris is the better-known commodity after appearing in nine games (six starts) last season. Grier is the bigger question and the name fans are more eager to see. Billed as the "pro-style" alternative to Harris' "dual-threat," Grier makes more sense in McElwain and offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier's system, which both coaches deployed under Nick Saban at Alabama. But there's a reason Harris beat Grier for the No. 2 job last season and then held him off all summer. Grier needs to show another gear.
OT Mason Halter
Mason Halter transferred to Florida this offseason after starting for three years at Fordham. He was a two-time FCS All-American and is listed as the starting left tackle, ahead of recently injured freshman Martez Ivey, on the official depth chart. Halter will face questions until he proves himself against a conference opponent, but a good game against New Mexico State—which theoretically resembles his previous level of competition—would put to rest some anxiety for Gators fans. Likewise, a bad game against New Mexico State would nudge the panic-meter among Gators fans toward DEFCON 1.
CB Vernon Hargreaves III
Assuming Vernon Hargreaves III covers receiver Teldrick Morgan, who last year caught 75 passes for 903 yards, it will be hard for New Mexico State to avoid him. Most teams employ a strict "Don't Throw at Hargreaves" game plan, but Morgan is the Aggies' best offensive player, and so they can't afford to cut him from the offense. VHIII is the best cornerback in college football and should get the chance, for once, to showcase his ball skills in coverage.
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New Mexico State Players to Watch
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LB Rodney Butler
Rodney Butler finished No. 2 in the Sun Belt with 119 tackles last season. No returning player in the conference had more. He has the frame of a Power Five linebacker (6'1", 235 lbs) and will need to play out of his mind to compensate for a defensive line whose biggest players are roughly the same size as him. Otherwise it will be a long day for New Mexico State's run defense.
S Kawe Johnson
Kawe Johnson is a playmaking safety whose tendency toward chaos could help the Aggies spring the major upset. He posted 12 tackles, two forced fumbles and an interception against LSU last season, which—yes—came in a 63-7 loss but still made it seem as if he belongs on the same field as SEC opponents. Florida needs to keep an eye on him and prevent him from forcing untimely turnovers.
WR Teldrick Morgan
Morgan caught 75 passes and finished No. 2 in the Sun Belt with 903 yards last season. He is a shifty receiver with unremarkable size (6'0", 195 lbs) and measurables but a knack for getting open. He caught 73.5 percent of his 2014 targets, per Bill Connelly of SB Nation, but he'll be lucky to crack 50 percent against Hargreaves, Jalen Tabor and whomever else Florida throws at him.
What They're Saying
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Florida
Head coach Jim McElwain on how he plans to split the quarterback reps, as stated at his Monday, August 31 press conference:
"We actually had a long meeting last night again and this morning just kind of looking at what’s going to be best. I think you know, probably I don’t know when we will determine it. We will go as is today. We have a prescribed amount of reps we are going to get and they split that in all the different situations again in the 58 minute practice we have. And come up with the best plan that we think is going to help us be successful.
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McElwain on the status of inside linebacker Antonio Morrison, who suffered a serious knee injury last November and was not expected back for the start of the season, per the same press conference:
"Yea he is [returning to play Week 1]. You have heard me throughout, it is unbelievable what he has done. I am really proud of what he has done and to see him recover like this. It won’t be one of those deals where he is playing 80 or 90 plays. At the same time, he has prepared himself and we will plan for that.
What he did just at the beginning of camp, there again what normally was a 10-12 month recovery he did in 6 months. And we have had the doctor in a bunch, probably more so for me not believing it. And yet the strength levels, all the tests, believe it or not it’s actually tighter than the other one. And uh again that’s a credit to him and what he did in the offseason to prepare himself to help this football team.
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McElwain on suspending three players—safety Marcus Maye, defensive end Alex McAllister and wide receiver Latroy Pittman—for the first game of the season, per the Associated Press:
"It's a choice and some strikes might have been against them obviously before we got here. And yet at the end of the day we all have those freedoms and those choices and you know for us there will be some guys that will get some valuable playing time obviously losing some guys like that. They'll be back with us and they'll serve their suspension and be ready and roll.
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New Mexico State
Head coach Doug Martin on how his team looked after the first day of fall practice, per Jason Groves of the Las Cruces Sun-News:
"It's the first day but we are light years ahead of where we were last year at this time. The talent level is so much better. We are faster and bigger and we have numbers. It looks like a college football team now. We have a lot of work to do, but we have closed the gap.
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Prediction
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Florida is going to kill New Mexico State.
The question is whether that means anything.
Unfortunately, the answer won't come until the Gators play a real opponent. There's nothing it can do against the Aggies that will prove it's turned a corner and is ready to contend in the SEC East. If last year's 65-0 obliteration of Eastern Michigan taught us anything, it's that an early-season blowout does not spell a happy season.
All Gators fans really want to see—and what I predict will happen—is a strong showing from the offense, especially at quarterback and along the offensive line. They want McElwain and Nussmeier to make this look easy, for the offense to play with confidence and for either Harris or Grier (preferably Grier) to seize the starting job and not look back.
The Aggies are creative enough to score, at some point, but they won't score often. And because Florida has so much to learn about its roster, it will not take its foot off the gas.
It feels like the Gators should cover.
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