7 College Football Teams with the Best Chance to Pull a Week 1 Upset
It's finally here. At long last, the 2015 college football season is upon us. We've survived recruiting, spring practice and summer workouts, and across the nation, programs are making final preparations for their season openers.
Every team is full of optimism, and with good reason: They haven't played a single game yet. It's easy to be in a good mood when you're undefeated, but that won't be the case for half of the nation's programs by this time next week.
Every season brings upsets, some more seismic than others. Who can forget Appalachian State marching into the Big House and stunning Michigan in 2007? It was an indelible moment in college football, one that fans will always remember.
We're not suggesting a stunner of that scale will happen this week, but surprises will occur. Here's a look at the seven squads with the best chance to pull off an upset. These teams were selected after examining their foes, performance last year, key returning players and offseason shuffles in rosters and coaching staffs.
BYU
1 of 7
This is a big week in Lincoln, Nebraska. Every season opener is big in Lincoln, of course, but this one feels a little different. The Cornhuskers have a new leader in head coach Mike Riley, who's replacing the volatile Bo Pelini, fired after yet another nine-win season.
Nebraska's expectations are high as always with the return 12 starters, but the Huskers will deploy a pro-style offense different from the system Pelini ran. Meanwhile, BYU is anxious to make an impression on the national stage.
The Cougars' opening month includes games against Nebraska, Boise State, UCLA and Michigan, but they return dual-threat quarterback Taysom Hill, who suffered a season-ending broken leg in his team's fifth game last fall. Hill and BYU will give the Huskers a serious challenge in Riley's debut.
Central Michigan
2 of 7
Oklahoma State has one of the more unusual season openers. The Cowboys finished 2014 with a flourish, defeating archrival Oklahoma and taking down Washington in the Cactus Bowl. But Mike Gundy's group must travel to Mount Pleasant, Michigan, to take on MAC foe Central Michigan.
The Cowboys are 24.5-point favorites, per Odds Shark, but they must face a solid Chippewas offense led by junior quarterback Cooper Rush, last seen throwing an FBS bowl-record seven touchdowns in the Bahamas.
This is a game Oklahoma State should win, but Central Michigan will surely be fired up for new head coach John Bonamego's debut. It's a matchup that has "trap game" written all over it.
Louisville
3 of 7
Bobby Petrino is headed back to the Georgia Dome for the first time since his triumphant return in 2013. Louisville's head coach will guide his team as it takes on Auburn on Saturday in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game.
The Cardinals are the underdogs, but it'd be a mistake not to take them seriously. As AL.com's Brandon Marcello noted, Petrino has been preparing all year for the Tigers. Auburn running backs coach Tim Horton, who spent four years on Petrino's staff at Arkansas, knows he'll be ready.
"He's just a terrific coach, and that's going to challenge our team because the one thing he always did when I coached with him for four years at Arkansas was he put a lot of emphasis and a lot of preparation time into that first game. Now we're the first game, so we know we're going to get their very best shot.
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Auburn begins the season as the nation's sixth-ranked team. No one knows how quickly new defensive coordinator Will Muschamp will be able to put his stamp on a unit that struggled last fall under Ellis Johnson, but he does get a talent infusion led by defensive end Carl Lawson, a 2013 freshman All-American who missed last year with a torn ACL. The Tigers will also be breaking in new quarterback Jeremy Johnson and have some uncertainty at tailback following the departure of Cameron Artis-Payne, the SEC's leading rusher in 2014.
The Cardinals return only seven starters from a group that finished 9-4, but they have SEC-caliber additions in the secondary with Georgia transfers Josh Harvey-Clemons and Shaq Wiggins. Petrino and Co. will be plenty motivated to make a splash in Atlanta, and that could spell trouble for Auburn.
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North Carolina
4 of 7
North Carolina and South Carolina don't get together very often anymore. They've met just twice since 1991, so their neutral-site season opener in Charlotte's Bank of America Stadium will be unique. Both teams are coming off disappointing seasons (North Carolina was 6-7, South Carolina 7-6), but the Gamecocks are 3.5-point favorites, per Odds Shark.
North Carolina returns 16 starters, led by dual-threat senior quarterback Marquise Williams, but must improve a defense that yielded 39 points per game last fall, which cost coordinator Vic Koenning his job.
South Carolina also has a new defensive boss in co-coordinator Jon Hoke, who was brought in to revamp a unit that allowed 30.4 points per game last fall, third-worst in the SEC. On the other side of the ball, Steve Spurrier is breaking in a new starting quarterback in sophomore Connor Mitch.
It wouldn't be surprising to see the Tar Heels gain the upper hand in a game both teams need in order to open the season on a high note.
Western Kentucky
5 of 7
Let's not mince words: Vanderbilt was awful last year. Following consecutive nine-win seasons under head coach James Franklin, the Commodores completely fell apart with Derek Mason at the helm, slipping to 3-9. Vandy never recovered after losing its season opener to Temple 37-7. Mason fired both his offensive and defensive coordinators and could be coaching for his job this fall.
The Commodores return 17 starters but have a tough season opener against Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers return 14 starters from a team that won eight games a year ago, and they're the favorite to win the East division in Conference USA.
Western Kentucky is led by Brandon Doughty, who topped the FBS with 4,830 passing yards in 2014. The Toppers averaged 44.4 points per game last fall, No. 6 nationally. Vanderbilt should absolutely be on upset alert with this bunch coming to town.
Virginia
6 of 7
UCLA is a trendy College Football Playoff pick, and with good reason. The Bruins are coming off consecutive 10-win seasons and return 17 starters, including nine on offense. Coach Jim Mora Jr.'s team has its home opener against Virginia, which is coming off a 5-7 season and likely playing for head coach Mike London's job.
UCLA's task is not as easy as you might think. A year ago, the Cavaliers gave the Bruins a serious scare in Charlottesville: UCLA needed three defensive touchdowns to escape with a 28-20 win. UVA has a returning starting quarterback in junior Matt Johns and one of the nation's best defensive backs in sophomore safety Quin Blanding.
With Bruins freshman Josh Rosen getting his first start at quarterback, that could be a concern. The Cavaliers aren't one of the ACC's best teams, but they could push the Bruins in Pasadena.
Wisconsin
7 of 7
Paul Chryst surely could have picked an easier opener for his debut as Wisconsin head coach. The Badgers will begin 2015 with a neutral-site showdown against Alabama, the defending SEC champion and a College Football Playoff qualifier.
Both teams landed in the preseason Associated Press Top 25, with Alabama ranked No. 3 and Wisconsin No. 20. It's fair, however, to have doubts about the Crimson Tide, at least early on. Alabama returns just nine starters, including only two on offense. The Tide are still sorting out their quarterback situation and could play two signal-callers in the opener.
A year ago, Nick Saban's bunch struggled to put away West Virginia in a 33-23 win in Atlanta. Meanwhile, Wisconsin blew a 24-7 lead against LSU, falling 28-24. The Badgers must replace Heisman Trophy runner-up Melvin Gordon, but they return 12 starters, including seven on defense and three from a solid secondary. Wisconsin was stingy defensively last fall, allowing 20.8 points per game.
It's not unreasonable to think the Badgers could give a young but talented Alabama team a serious challenge deep in the heart of Texas.
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