What Could Green Bay Packers Offense Look Like Without Jordy Nelson in 2015?

Early in the first quarter of the Green Bay Packers' preseason clash with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Packers wideout Jordy Nelson went down after leaping to secure a quick out from Aaron Rodgers. 

It was a non-contact injury, and it appeared to be nothing serious. Nelson even walked off the field and then back to the locker room under his own power. 

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Here's the non-contact injury of Jordy Nelson in the Packers-Steelers game. Initial reports are Torn ACL for Nelson. pic.twitter.com/tb0uWhSGYi

— Ben Segelbaum (@BegelbaumSports) August 23, 2015"

That's why it was so shocking when NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport revealed that the initial diagnosis, pending MRI results, is that Nelson tore his ACL. If confirmed, the Packers will lose him for the year. 

The Packers got a brief taste of life without Nelson early in the offseason when the veteran wideout sat out most of OTAs while recovering from an offseason hip surgery. 

But they never expected to be without him for a full season. 

Nelson is coming off the best performance of his career in 2014, with 98 receptions for 1,519 yards and 13 touchdowns. Those 13 scores were tied with Pittsburgh's Antonio Brown for second-most of all pass-catchers in the league last season, and the 94.9 yards per game Nelson averaged were the fifth-most. 

There's no question general manager Ted Thompson has always maintained a stable of veteran and developing pass-catchers for Rodgers. However, there's equally no denying how important a target Nelson is to this offense. 

One only has to remember that Nelson had 71 catches for first downs in 2014, third-most in the league, to underscore how big a role he plays in moving the team down the field. 

What will the offense look like without him? 

To start, put to bed the notion that Green Bay will hop on the phone with free agents such as Reggie Wayne and Wes Welker. Wayne—who visited with the New England Patriots over the weekend, per ESPN's Adam Schefter—was linked to the Packers earlier in the offseason, according to David Furst of WRTV in Indianapolis (h/t 247Sports). But Green Bay is a team that always has another man in the wings waiting to be called up, and that is what the Packers will do in this situation. 

Thompson's decision to select Stanford wide receiver Ty Montgomery in the third round of the 2015 NFL draft look prescient now, when some called it foolish earlier. The strategy behind continuing to stockpile weapons at a position of strength is simple: That's what allows it to remain a position of strength, even in the face of obstacles like Nelson's injury. 

His absence brings up the divisive question of what, exactly, is a No. 1 receiver, and who will become the Packers' new one. Whatever it is, Nelson is certainly one, but people have varying definitions.

Some consider the receiver on a team who receives the most targets to be the No. 1 receiver. Others consider that player to be the traditional outside X receiver, making the denomination more about where the player lines up than about usage. 

There's almost no question that Randall Cobb will become Rodgers' primary target without Nelson on the field. Aside from the years of chemistry and trust between wide receiver and quarterback, Cobb's skill is well-established: In 2014, he had a catch rate of 72.8 percent, which ranked 10th out of 110 wide receivers, per Pro Football Focus.

Cobb also had the best wide receiver rating among all wideouts in 2014, a Pro Football Focus stat that measures "the rating quarterbacks have whilst throwing to a wide receiver." Packers quarterbacks (Rodgers, Matt Flynn and Scott Tolzien) had a rating of 134.3 when targeting Cobb last season. 

David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

In other words, Cobb makes Rodgers better. They have been and will continue to be a lethal duo. 

Cobb will also, however, likely continue to see most of his snaps come from the slot. In 2014, he ran 87.3 percent of his routes out of the slot, making him the league's fourth-most-used slot receiver. His versatility, athleticism and size make him well-suited for that role. 

So, while Cobb may absorb the majority of targets that would have otherwise gone to Nelson, look for second-year player Davante Adams to take over Nelson's spot on the outside. Adams, a 6'1", 212-pound wideout, was a top performer in the vertical jump in the 2014 NFL combine, at 39.5 inches.

Adams has the skill set and the build to beat corners and win jump balls. He's even been building a Nelson-esque skill into his repertoire: the back-shoulder catch. That was something he started working on at Fresno State with now-Oakland Raiders quarterback, Derek Carr, per Tyler Dunne of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:

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With Adams, Carr learned he could throw high and back-shoulder. ...

The week after the Hawaii game, Carr called a "go" route for Adams. Get vertical. Both read that the cornerback was sitting atop the route—no audibles were called, no signals made—and Carr went back shoulder. Adams dorsiflexed his body nearly 360 degrees like Jordy Nelson and plucked the one-handed touchdown pass above his head. As Carr punctuated, "I don't care who you're playing—there's not a lot of people who can do that."

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With Cobb and Adams locking down two-thirds of the Packers' top three, who will round out the third spot?

Against Pittsburgh, after Nelson went down, it was second-year player Jeff Janis. He finished his day with seven targets and three receptions for 25 yards, doing most of his work with backup quarterback Scott Tolzien.

Nicknamed "Mr. August" for how well he performs in the preseason, Janis has flashed tons of raw talent in practice but barely saw the field in 2014. He needed more time to learn the playbook and to build trust with Rodgers. 

That endeavor was helped greatly by the extra snaps Janis earned working with the first-team offense in the offseason while Nelson recovered from his hip surgery. But does he have enough experience to replace Nelson in regular-season games? 

For his part, Janis is gaining confidence a little more than a year removed from his first snap with the Packers. "Now it’s a completely different world," Janis said in July, per Mike Spofford of Packers.com. "It’s really starting to slow down for me. I’m starting to see things a little differently, and it’s coming a lot easier."

Where does rookie phenom Montgomery fit in all this? While Janis has the size (6'3", 219 lbs) to play on the outside opposite Adams, there's been no denying Montgomery's talent this preseason. 

He didn't get any targets against Pittsburgh, though he was on return duty, returning one kick and one punt for 13 and 10 yards, respectively. Special teams will be an important role for the rookie in 2015, but don't underestimate how effective he can be in package plays for the Packers.

The Stanford product can line up wide, in the slot and out of the backfield, and he did all of the above in college. The Packers have used Cobb out of the backfield, but with the increased targets he'll be getting in Nelson's absence, look for Montgomery to play that role. Though Janis will likely earn the No. 3 nod to begin the season, it wouldn't be surprising to see Montgomery's snaps increase by midseason. 

Montgomery's ability to gain yards after the catch is another huge asset the Packers will hope to utilize. 

"He is a big-time threat after the catch, having forced 17 missed tackles on his catches in college, which was tied for fourth-best among draft eligible Power Five wide receivers," wrote Nathan Jahnke of Pro Football Focus. 

Moving on from the wide receivers, a player who could really take some of the sting out of the Nelson injury is second-year tight end Richard Rodgers. The Packers need more reliable red-zone targets, and the hope is that Rodgers is ready to take that step in 2015. 

The tight end had a nice game in Pittsburgh, with three receptions for 30 yards and a touchdown. In fact, he was the team's leading receiver on the day. 

Then, of course, there's the backfield, led by Eddie Lacy. Opposing defenses may be tempted to stack the box against Lacy with Nelson out, but then Rodgers can still look to Cobb, Adams, Janis, Montgomery and Richard Rodgers. 

Lacy's established excellence at the position over the last two years will force defenses to stay honest in 2015. 

Head coach Mike McCarthy did say after the game that he was still hoping for "good news" about Nelson's injury, per ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky. So until an MRI confirms that Nelson's injury was season-ending, there's a chance the veteran may play at some point in 2015. 

However, if he can't, the Packers offense should still be one of the NFL's best.