College Football Predictions: Picking the Winner of Each Power Five Conference
With the college football season nearly upon us, it seems like a great time to make some predictions. Last season, all four participants in the College Football Playoff were champions of Power Five conferences, and this year could produce a similar outcome.
This article will serve as a breakdown of each Power Five conference—and each division—to make the most logical prediction heading into the season. There will undoubtedly be some contention with each pick, and at this time of the season, that's exactly the point of making predictions. So please let us know where we got it wrong and why we're not taking your team seriously enough.
ACC
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Atlantic Division: Clemson
Quarterback Deshaun Watson represents Clemson's biggest reason for title hopes. As a freshman last season, Watson put up great numbers but was injury-plagued and missed significant time. He dealt with a cracked collarbone, a broken thumb and, finally, a torn ACL that required surgery to repair.
Watson is reportedly healthy and ready to go for 2015, per ESPN's David M. Hale, and the Tigers will be playoff contenders if he can stay that way. The Nov. 7 meeting with Florida State will be the most anticipated game of the season, but a Sept. 17 trip to Louisville on a Thursday night could be dangerous.
Coastal Division: Georgia Tech
There was a time in the middle of last season when the ACC Coastal was the epitome of mediocrity. Then Georgia Tech went on a tear in the second half of the year, highlighted by a 28-6 win over Clemson on Nov. 15.
That win started an impressive season-ending four-game stretch for the Yellow Jackets that included a 30-24 win at Georgia and a 49-34 win over Mississippi State in the Orange Bowl, with a tough 37-35 loss to Florida State in the ACC Championship Game in between.
Leading the charge for Georgia Tech in 2015 will be redshirt junior quarterback Justin Thomas. Thomas' 18 touchdown passes last season were the highest for any Georgia Tech quarterback since Reggie Ball threw 20 touchdown passes in 2006, and Ball had Calvin Johnson to throw to. With another season featuring a balanced attack, the Yellow Jackets should again find themselves atop the standings.
Key conference games include an Oct. 10 visit to Clemson, an Oct. 24 home meeting with Florida State and a trip to Miami on Nov. 21. In a fairly muddled division, the Hurricanes might be the biggest challengers. Quarterback Brad Kaaya showed tons of potential during his freshman campaign, and he could lead Miami to the next level if he can improve upon that performance.
Conference Champion: Clemson
Clemson has the conference's biggest game-changer in Watson, and if he stays healthy for the entire season, the Tigers will be in a great position in every big game. Georgia Tech plays with a style and discipline level that allows for it to maximize its potential, so this would be a great matchup. But we're giving the edge to the Tigers for having the best player on the field.
Big 12
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Conference Champion: TCU
Not having a conference championship game might hurt the Big 12 in sending a team to the College Football Playoff, but it makes for an easier time when making preseason predictions.
In a mostly two-team race, TCU earns the slightest of edges. Trevone Boykin returns at quarterback, and so does leading rusher Aaron Green and leading receiver Josh Doctson. Anyone who thought the top teams in the Big 12 are somehow inferior to those of other conferences was silenced after TCU's 42-3 beatdown of Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl, and that has plenty of folks excited for the team's chances in 2015.
The Horned Frogs were second in the nation last year in points per game, and they should be near the top of the list again in 2015, along with the team who finished first in that category—the Baylor Bears. Baylor had a fantastic 2014 season and, like TCU, was one win away from a spot in the CFP. The Bears must replace Bryce Petty at quarterback this season, but new starter Seth Russell appears ready for his moment, per ESPN's Max Olson.
Russell will have the luxury of having a plethora of talented skill players around him. Shock Linwood returns as the lead running back after posting 1,252 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns last season, giving the Bears a potent running game.
But the scariest part of Baylor's offense is its passing attack, and that is led by a dangerous receiving duo of Corey Coleman and KD Cannon. The pair combined for 2,149 yards and 19 touchdowns last season, and they'll make the adjustment from backup to starter much easier for Russell.
The biggest conference game of the season is an obvious choice—Baylor visits TCU on Nov. 27. While these two teams are clearly the favorites, other contenders include Oklahoma and Kansas State. The Sooners are led by running back Samaje Perine, who ran for 1,713 yards and 21 touchdowns as a freshman in 2014. Oklahoma went a disappointing 8-5 last season, so perhaps a bounce back is in store with some diminished expectations.
Kansas State drew the short end of the stick in 2014 in terms of Big 12 scheduling—the Wildcats faced Oklahoma, TCU and Baylor all on the road last season. This year, all those games are home games, but they also all come within a four-game stretch that also features a road trip to Texas. If the Wildcats can somehow rise to the occasion and navigate through that mine field, they'll find themselves firmly in the mix for the conference title.
Big Ten
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East Division: Ohio State
Making predictions is never easy, but this one was by far the least challenging selection to make. The defending national champs are loaded, a fact embodied best by their embarrassment of riches in the backfield.
Either J.T. Barrett or Cardale Jones—or perhaps both—will get to work with Ezekiel Elliott in the backfield and throw to Michael Thomas and quarterback-turned-receiver Braxton Miller on the perimeter. Miller's transition to wideout has progressed quickly, per Bill Landis of Cleveland.com. Miller is an elite athlete and could be a game-changer once he gets some game reps under his belt.
The Buckeyes have talent all across the board, and their biggest challenge will be dealing with the pressure and spotlight that comes with trying to repeat as champions. They'll get everyone's toughest game, and staying focused each week is not as easy as it sounds. Key games include a season-opening trip to Virginia Tech on Sept. 7, a visit from Penn State on Oct. 17, Michigan State on Nov. 21 and the season finale at Michigan on Nov. 28.
The Spartans appear to be the Buckeyes' biggest challengers, and with Connor Cook returning at quarterback, Michigan State will have one of the most talented and experienced passers in the conference leading the way. A dark-horse candidate to make some noise is Penn State. The Nittany Lions only play three conference road games, and though they are against Ohio State, Northwestern and Michigan State, quarterback Christian Hackenberg has shown a knack for playing well in close games.
If Penn State can hang around into the fourth quarter of those games, then the team can muddle a division race that, at the onset of the season, seems to be a one-horse race.
West Division: Wisconsin
Wisconsin hasn't won a conference title since Bret Bielema's departure after the 2012 season, and last season's humiliating 59-0 loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game put a big damper on an otherwise successful season.
The Badgers will be without All-American running back Melvin Gordon, but the program has been known for producing workhorse tailbacks in the past decade, and the next player in line should be Corey Clement. Clement rushed for 949 yards and nine touchdowns as Gordon's backup last season, including a 105-yard performance against Auburn in Wisconsin's 34-31 win in the Outback Bowl.
Key conference games for Wisconsin include an Oct. 10 trip to Nebraska and the season finale at Minnesota on Nov. 28.
Nebraska returns Tommy Armstrong Jr. at quarterback, and he'll have to learn how to thrive without relying on running back Ameer Abdullah, who was picked by the Detroit Lions in the second round of the NFL draft. The Huskers ranked 60th in the nation in scoring defense last season, and they'll need to improve in order to contend for the division crown.
Conference Champion: Ohio State
Simply put, Ohio State is far and away the best team in the Big Ten. If the Buckeyes advance to the Big Ten Championship game and don't win, it will be a complete shock.
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Pac-12
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North Division: Oregon
Oregon must replace 2014 Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota, but the Ducks have a strong track record of replacing marquee quarterbacks. Since 2006, Oregon has had four different starters at the position, and each has been more successful than the last—Dennis Dixon, Jeremiah Masoli, Darron Thomas and Mariota.
It's highly unlikely that Vernon Adams or Jeff Lockie will be as good as Mariota, but with the number of weapons the team returns on offense, big things should be expected of whichever quarterback wins the starting job.
Stanford won the conference in 2012 and 2013 thanks to a strong running game and dominant defense, but the Cardinal struggled to run the ball last season, ranking eighth in the conference in rushing yards per game. Stanford will need to be much better to compete with Oregon in 2015. Stanford hosts Oregon on Nov. 14 in a game that will likely determine the winner of the North Division.
Among the rest of the North teams, Cal might have the best chance to surprise some people. The Bears were horrendous on defense last season, ranking 123rd in the nation in points allowed per game. But Cal has one of the most talented quarterbacks in the country in Jared Goff, and the Bears offense will be able to put up points against anybody.
South Division: USC
The Pac-12 South is arguably the toughest division in all of college football, so picking a winner is a tall task. By the slimmest of margins, USC gets the nod here. With nearly a full roster of scholarship players for the first time in years, the Trojans have as much talent as any team in the country. Fifth-year senior Cody Kessler returns as the starting quarterback and is among the leading candidates for the Heisman Trophy.
An infuse of young talent—the Trojans brought in one of the top recruiting classes of 2015—should put USC in better position to stay sharp late in close games, an important thing considering the team lost three games by six points or fewer last season, including twice in the game's final eight seconds.
UCLA has the look of a championship team. The Bruins have talent all over their roster but are most inexperienced at one position—quarterback. Though no starter has been announced as of yet, true freshman Josh Rosen will likely have the job when the season begins, and he'll have a lot of pressure to lead the program to new heights right away.
When the dust settled at the end of the 2014 regular season, it was Arizona who was left standing as the South champs. The Wildcats return starting quarterback Anu Solomon and a host of offensive skill players, including running back Nick Wilson. On defense, linebacker Scooby Wright III is the nation's most decorated defensive player, and he could be a Heisman candidate with another big year.
Arizona State and Utah are also legitimate threats to the South crown. The Sun Devils are headlined by running back-turned-wideout D.J. Foster, who totaled 1,769 yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns last season. Utah running back Devontae Booker was second in the league last season with 1,512 rushing yards, and the Utes defense returns several key players from a unit that ranked second in conference in total defense last season.
There are several key games that will shape the South race this season, but the conference slate ends with some juicy matchups—UCLA at Utah and Arizona at Arizona State on Nov. 21, then UCLA at USC on Nov. 28.
Conference Champion: USC
Picking the winner of a conference championship game is almost a coin flip, and this is no different. USC plays at Oregon on Nov. 21, so if these teams win their respective divisions, there will be some recent history to look back on.
The Trojans and Ducks haven't played since 2012, when Oregon won 62-51 at the Coliseum. A key factor that gives the Trojans the nod here is that the Pac-12 Championship Game will be played at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California, and the USC fanbase travels as well as any in the country. In a game with teams so evenly matched, that's enough to tilt the scales.
SEC
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East Division: Georgia
Last year's East champ, Missouri, benefited largely from a favorable schedule. The Tigers faced the two worst teams in the West—Texas A&M and Arkansas—in 2014, and they were unsurprisingly trounced by Alabama in the SEC title game.
Georgia gets the nod in these predictions, and though the Bulldogs don't get as lucky with their inter-divisional matchups—they host Alabama on Oct. 3 and play at Auburn on Nov. 14—they are the favorites to win the West largely due to the presence of Nick Chubb.
The freshman rushed for 1,547 yards and 14 touchdowns last season and should be among the leading Heisman candidates for 2015. Key dates on the Bulldogs schedule are against South Carolina on Sept. 19 and at Tennessee on Oct. 10.
The Volunteers are potential dark-horse candidates in 2015. After bringing in top-10 recruiting classes each of the last two seasons—and with dual threat Joshua Dobbs at quarterback—the Volunteers could rise up the SEC pecking order quickly.
West Division: Mississippi State
Only two of the seven teams in the SEC West have established starting quarterbacks heading into the 2015 season—Arkansas and Mississippi State. Though they sit just outside the preseason coaches poll, Mississippi State should be considered the favorite to win the West.
Picking the winner from the West is tough, but the Bulldogs earn the slight edge because of how valuable it is to have a proven option at quarterback. Dak Prescott is far and away the most accomplished quarterback in the division, and having him on the field instead of an unproven player gives Mississippi State a huge edge.
Two tough back-to-back road games against Auburn and Texas A&M in games four and five will be revealing, but beyond that the Bulldogs get their two toughest games at home—Alabama on Nov. 14 and Ole Miss on Nov. 28.
Alabama is the biggest threat to Mississippi State. The Tide must replace Blake Sims at quarterback, and Jake Coker should be the one to take the reins of the offense once the season starts. The winner of that Nov. 14 matchup will most likely be the team that advances to the SEC Championship Game.
Conference Champion: Georgia
Georgia head coach Mark Richt hasn't won a conference title since 2005, and after losing in back-to-back championship games in 2011 and 2012, Richt won't let another opportunity slip away in 2015. If Georgia makes it to Atlanta, Richt will make sure the Dawgs won't leave empty handed again.
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