Packers vs. Patriots: Previewing New England's Preseason Week 1 Matchup
Tom Brady's off-field saga is the big headliner leading up to the New England Patriots' first preseason contest, but with Deflategate's conclusion finally imminent, Thursday night should symbolically be a new chapter. The Pats are an incorrigible organization that never deviates from its businesslike mentality. So while it's only preseason, their first contest against the Green Bay Packers will finally place the attention on the field, where it belongs.
Granted, this matchup doesn't have a fraction of the sizzle of last year's much-hyped November matchup. Including the postseason, the Patriots' 26-21 defeat that afternoon was the only time over the final 15 games of the year when New England lost despite playing its starters. Excluding a Week 17 defeat when most starters rested, Green Bay was the team's only post-September hiccup en route to Super Bowl XLIX.
Fortunately, if the first preseason game is all about assimilating the team into game-like conditions, the Packers should provide a worthy tuneup to the subsequent dress rehearsals over the next two weeks. Green Bay possesses arguably the league's deepest roster headed into 2015, so this game should provide an early barometer of the Patriots' current depth.
As with every preseason game, the scoreboard takes a back seat to individual performances and the overall cohesiveness of each unit. With that in mind, here's a complete guide to everything you need to know from New England's perspective as the Patriots return to the field for the first time in over six months.
Location: Gillette Stadium; Foxborough, MA
Date and Time: Thursday, August 13 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Latest Injury News
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Though training camp is less than two weeks old, both teams have a lengthy list of banged-up players headed into the preseason opener.
New England's practice attendance rebounded a bit over the weekend, but wide receiver and running back stand out as two positions that could be rather thin during the early stages of the preseason. According to NESN's Doug Kyed, 11 players were absent during the Pats' Tuesday practice, the team's last one before the game. Tom Brady was a surprise inclusion on the list of absentees, and it's unclear if his Wednesday court appearance in New York was the reason for that absence.
However, that figure undersells the actual number of injuries on the roster, as Kyed reported that Julian Edelman and LeGarrette Blount were among several players to leave roughly halfway through practice. It's hard to imagine any of those players suiting up for the game, and that doesn't include Brandon LaFell or Chris Jones, who remain on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list.
Whereas the offensive skill position backups might get a chance to shine for New England, the linebackers in Green Bay might be in a similar situation. The Packers also got several returnees in their most recent practice, per SB Nation's Evan Western, but the likes of Clay Matthews and Mike Neal might not be ready for game action.
Thus, most of the starters in action on Thursday night will likely come when the Packers have the ball. If Brady suits up the day after his settlement hearing, he'll likely be throwing to an unfamiliar supporting cast.
Key Matchups
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Malcolm Butler vs. Jordy Nelson
Green Bay returns all 11 offensive starters from a unit that ranked first in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric last season. So paying fans at Gillette Stadium aren't likely to see much of Aaron Rodgers and Co., who probably don't need much of a preseason at all. However, when the Packers' first-string offense is on the field, keep an eye on this particular matchup on the perimeter.
It's no secret that cornerback is the biggest question mark on New England's defense headed into the season, but thus far, Malcolm Butler looks like a possible answer at the position. ESPN Boston's Mike Reiss reported that Butler has been entrenched at left cornerback during practice, whereas the Pats have rotated the rest of their corps at the right cornerback spot. Reiss believes that Butler "is currently viewed as the top choice," a strong statement from the always-plugged-in beat reporter.
Assuming Butler gets the majority of the first-team left cornerback reps, facing a consensus top-10 receiver in Nelson will provide a nice gauge of his current progress. Nelson burned Darrelle Revis on arguably the corner's worst play of 2014, so if only for a few plays, Butler figures to have his hands full.
Patriots Interior O-Line vs. Mike Daniels
How New England's callow interior offensive line holds up against a murderer's row of AFC East defensive tackles will be a recurring storyline throughout the regular season. Though we still don't necessarily know Bill Belichick's preferred Week 1 starting guard-center-guard trio, Thursday's contest will provide the first hints in that department.
Based on training-camp reports from WEEI's Chris Price and other Pats reporters, it's reasonable to expect an all-rookie guard tandem of Tre' Jackson and Shaq Mason in the starting lineup. With the aforementioned Wendell on PUP, the Pats have kept Jackson at his natural right guard spot and moved Mason into the left guard slot over players like Josh Kline and Jordan Devey, who combined to start eight games last season.
Daniels may not have the cache of an Ndamukong Suh or Muhammad Wilkerson, but the fourth-year pro is one of the game's underrated rising stars. Last year, Daniels ranked fourth in Pro Football Focus' pass-rushing productivity metric, as measured against other 3-4 defensive ends. Daniels shifts inside to the 3-technique spot in sub packages, so expect the rookies to get a heavy dose of Green Bay's best interior rusher.
Aaron Dobson and Brandon Gibson vs. Packers Cornerbacks
Dobson and Gibson might be competing for one spot on the final 53-man roster, but because of the injury rash at wide receiver, it wouldn't be a surprise if they get heavily run with the first- and second-string offense. Along with Danny Amendola, these two are the only currently healthy veteran wide receivers.
Thus, this will be a critical showcase for both Dobson and Gibson, both of whom could conceivably play the entire game. Dobson got off to a hot start early in camp, but more recently, Gibson has performed well with injuries pushing him up the depth chart.
Someone's positive momentum figures to come to an end at some point, though, and this game represents the first opportunity to create real separation. The duo figure to face the whole range of Green Bay's cornerback depth chart, from returning veteran starters Sam Shields and Casey Hayward to the rookie duo of Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins.
Matchup X-Factors
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Patriots X-Factor: Tarell Brown
New England's most recently signed cornerback could very well crack the starting lineup by Week 1. The 30-year-old Brown has started 56 games the past four seasons for San Francisco and Oakland, but offseason foot surgery left him sitting on the free-agent market until the Pats came calling at the start of camp.
Brown did visit Foxborough earlier in the offseason, so it appears New England was simply waiting for his foot to heal further before inking him to a deal. Based on observers who were at his first practice on August 2, Brown's movement fluidity would seemingly indicate that he's back to full strength:
"Very active day for CB Tarell Brown. Counted at least 3 pass deflections. Appears to be moving well
— Michael Giardi (@MikeGiardi) August 2, 2015"
It'll be interesting to see if the Pats give Brown first-string reps against the likes of Nelson, Randall Cobb and Davante Adams over Logan Ryan or Bradley Fletcher. However, regardless of when Brown does enter the game, he might find himself across from a receiver who has surprised thus far in Packers camp.
Packers X-Factor: Ty Montgomery
The Stanford alum Montgomery might have seemed like a curious choice in Round 3. NFL.com's Lance Zierlein labeled him a kick returner who might not be a natural fit at wide receiver, pinpointing Cordarrelle Patterson as his pro comparison.
However, based on those expectations, Montgomery has been far ahead of schedule after the first week of training camp. In fact, the Green Bay Press-Gazette's Pete Dougherty suggested that Montgomery might actually be ahead of second-year receiver Davante Adams, who was seemingly a lock at the No. 3 receiver spot headed into camp:
"Davante Adams was one of the stars of the offseason practices and coming into training camp appeared ready for a much bigger role in the offense as the No. 3 receiver in his second NFL season. There’s still no reason not to think so.
But considering the accolades from McCarthy and Rodgers when the team took its final offseason break in June, Adams has had a relatively quiet start to training camp.
Part of the perception probably is skewed by expectations, but it’s hard not to conclude that third-round draft pick Ty Montgomery has been the better playmaker early in camp. And one play involving Adams on Tuesday was a little jarring: cornerback Sam Shields’ leaping interception of a Rodgers throw on a go route.
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Montgomery's size (6'0", 221 pounds) and explosiveness figure to challenge New England's corners on the perimeter. It's still hard to imagine he'll end up beating out Adams on Green Bay's depth chart, but from a Patriots perspective, Montgomery should provide a nice test for the second-string corners.
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What the Experts Are Saying
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Gary Tanguay: Aldon Smith Worth the Risk
The free-agent market is typically barren at this time of year, but one proven All-Pro player approaching his prime remains available. Of course, Aldon Smith is practically radioactive at this point following another DUI arrest, on top of vandalism and hit-and-run charges. Nevertheless, CSNNE's Gary Tanguay argued that, "[The Patriots] should take a look at Aldon Smith...He's only 25 years old. He could be saved."
In his only year as a full-time starter, Smith recorded 19.5 sacks and accumulated an Approximate Value (AV) of 15, per Pro-Football-Reference. For sake of comparison, only eight defenders that season accumulated more AV, while J.J. Watt inched out Smith for the sack title. Nevertheless, as Smith's legal situation plays out, teams aren't likely to sign the young edge-rusher, especially with looming league discipline:
"Touched base with few GMs - some have taken risks with players - and none seemed ready to pounce on Aldon Smith. NFL investigating incident
— Chris Mortensen (@mortreport) August 7, 2015"
Considering that Smith served a nine-game suspension last season for personal-conduct-policy violations, it's not unreasonable to think that Roger Goodell could banish him for an entire season this time around. Thinking about Smith's fit on the Patriots would be placing a football spin on a story that has transcended the game, and it also ignores the fact that New England has been intolerant of off-field troubles since Aaron Hernandez's incarceration.
Dan Hope: Pressure Garoppolo's Biggest Concern
With Brady reportedly unlikely to settle with the NFL, per the Washington Post's Mark Maske, a four-game suspension for New England's most important player remains firmly on the table. If Jimmy Garoppolo does indeed lead the Patriots through September, Bleacher Report's Dan Hope believes that the second-year quarterback's tendency to hold on to the ball could represent his biggest pitfall:
"The most evident problem with Garoppolo’s game—one that is not as clearly discernible in a training-camp setting but will be noticeable in full-speed, full-contact game action—is that he simply holds on to the ball too long in the pocket, leaving himself in position to take sacks.
Opponents sacked Garoppolo five times last season on just 34 dropbacks, and on one of every three occasions he faced pressure in the pocket, according to Pro Football Focus.
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Moving quickly through progressions is arguably the toughest transition for any young quarterback, and it's a given that Garoppolo won't bring the same mental edge that Brady supplies the offense every week. In fact, according to research from Bryan Frye at Football Perspective, only eight quarterbacks since 1960 have been better at sack avoidance than Brady.
The Patriots will surely simplify the offense for Garoppolo, who certainly won't have the same pre-snap liberties or responsibilities as Brady. Preseason offense is typically vanilla, though, so it'll be hard to read much into Garoppolo's sense of timing when defenses aren't really disguising anything from the young quarterback.
Mike Reiss: Wendell Top Candidate at Left Guard
As mentioned on the previous slide, rookies Tre' Jackson and Shaq Mason are the top guard candidates at the moment. But Ryan Wendell coming off the PUP list, whenever that may be, should shake up the guard competition, and ESPN Boston's Mike Reiss believes that the seventh-year vet will ultimately end up at left guard in place of Mason:
"Jackson is primarily a right guard, and it wouldn't be a surprise if he assumes that starting role. He looks the part. Mason, who comes from a triple-option offense at Georgia Tech, is green in pass protection and that's why there is talk in some circles (including here) that Wendell would be a top candidate to slide into the left guard spot when he comes off the PUP list. I'm not sure Mason is ready yet.
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Pigeonholing Wendell at right guard doesn't make much sense; after all, his only experience entering 2014 was at center. Though the move was mostly out of necessity, Wendell proved more competent at guard than he did when he started every game at center in 2013.
Indeed, Wendell's quickness might be more advantageous against 3-techniques, as the undersized lineman was sometimes at a disadvantage when lining head-up against mammoth nose tackles. Given that he was arguably New England's most consistent offensive lineman last season, it's hard to imagine the Patriots phasing Wendell out at the start of the season.
Prediction: Patriots 18, Packers 15
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If you followed Bleacher Report's Patriots coverage last season, you'll know that this scribe isn't a huge fan of predicting final scores. And if you're truly concerned about the final score of Thursday's contest, well, maybe you've taken the offseason a little too hard.
Nevertheless, the scoreboard will provide a good indicator of the readiness level among New England's reserves. With the litany of injuries wreaking havoc on the depth chart, the preseason opener could either become a cause for alarm or a measure of reassurance as players take advantage of rare playing time.
Points certainly aren't the only indicator of success, though, and for the Pats, nothing is more important than seeing Jimmy Garoppolo play competently against a second-string defense. Granted, Garoppolo won't have the same supporting cast he'll work with if he indeed starts the regular season under center. Still, minimizing mistakes will be just as important as Garoppolo's ability to generate big plays.
A win won't do much to redeem last November's defeat at Lambeau Field. But if both Green Bay and New England see their seasons go according to plan, perhaps this is simply a precursor to another meeting in Santa Clara come February.
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