SEC Football: Which Teams Are Trending Up and Down Heading into 2015 Season?
SEC football is so difficult to predict this year because of the parity in the league and the lack of definite juggernauts.
There are few guarantees when it comes to who's going to be good and who's going to have a difficult time. The perfect example is that the Mississippi State Bulldogs were picked by the media to finish dead last in the rugged SEC West a year after winning 10 games.
Few still believe in Missouri despite back-to-back SEC championship game appearances, and everybody is jumping on hype trains rolling through Knoxville, Fayetteville, College Station and the Alabama Plains.
Some teams appear to be built for a sustained return to competitiveness such as Tennessee, while other powerhouses are facing some very real questions entering 2015.
It's always going to be a fun season with twists, turns and surprises. But where would the fun be in abstaining from trying to predict who'll live up to the hype and who'll fall flat on their faces?
Let's take a look at a few teams trending upward here a month before the season kicks off and which teams are heading in the opposite direction, if only for a short time.
As always, sound off in the comments.
Trending Up: Auburn
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Auburn's meteoric rise during Gus Malzahn's first season as the Tigers head coach in 2013 was followed by a bit of a collapse back to Earth last year.
This season should fall somewhere in the middle.
With a couple of breaks, however, the Tigers could find themselves in the College Football Playoff to close the season. There's that much excitement on the Plains, and publications such as Sports Illustrated are buying in.
"The last highly touted, 6' 5"-plus quarterback to stroll on to Auburn's campus won both the Heisman Trophy and the national championship in 2010," the website states. "So perhaps the comparison with Cam Newton isn’t fair to junior Jeremy Johnson, who has made only two starts on the Plains."
However, with the news that D'haquille Williams has missed two straight practices for personal reasons and there's no timetable for his return, all bets are off if the Tigers are without their superstar pass-catcher.
AL.com's Kevin Scarbinsky noted Malzahn called it a "discipline issue":
"When he takes care of that, he'll be back on the field," Malzahn said. "I'll make that decision. I'll let you know when he'll be back. Bottom line: Nobody's bigger than the team around here, and that's between him and me."
That's potentially a huge blow, and if he doesn't return to the team, all bets are off.
Though you may be skeptical of all the buzz surrounding new defensive coordinator Will Muschamp being able to fix what was miserably broken a year ago, he won't have to do it alone.
Sure, the Tigers gave up points in bucket loads a season ago, but Muschamp has a ton of new faces with which to work this year. The biggest key is the return of stud defensive end Carl Lawson, who missed last year recovering from a knee injury.
DaVonte Lambert also missed a swath of time a season ago, and he'll be back to full-strength.
In addition to those two, joining established starters Johnathan "Rudy" Ford, Joshua Holsey and Jonathan Jones in the defensive backfield are a pair of transfers. Tray Matthews (Georgia) and Blake Countess (Michigan) make AU deep and strong on the back level.
Offensively, there's never any question that Malzahn's group will be able to run the football and put up points. That doesn't appear to be a problem with Jovon Robinson, Roc Thomas and Peyton Barber all looking good.
Add the potential passing prowess of more traditional (but still athletic) quarterback Johnson, and all the pieces are in place for a major turnaround.
Trending Down: Florida
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Although Florida should be able to piecemeal a pass rush with some talented athletes to make up for the loss of Dante Fowler and despite having one of the most talented secondaries in the country, there are issues.
Deep-rooted issues.
New coach Jim McElwain inherited a bunch of problems from Will Muschamp's tenure. Unlike Muschamp, he'll get the most out of the offensive talent at his disposal, but there are still plenty of gaps that can only be fixed in recruiting.
Some Gators fans will tell you the much-publicized offensive line woes are overblown, but that isn't true at all. They're going to be relying on only one player (center Trip Thurman) with any starting experience in the SEC.
Some additions such as Mason Halter may help, but there's no guarantee the Fordham transfer is league caliber. Freshman Martez Ivey is going to be a superstar at some point, but asking him to be that in his first year is a stretch.
Nobody knows how that line will perform, and a bunch of first-year starters struggle more often than not.
That's not to mention the quarterback controversy (dual-threat Treon Harris or pro-style Will Grier?) as well as the dearth of proven offensive playmakers beyond exciting legacy running back Kelvin Taylor.
Players such as Adam Lane and Brandon Powell could emerge as exciting players, but there are plenty of questions beyond them. There are too many to have any real confidence.
When you factor in leading tackler Antonio Morrison being gimpy and unsure of when he'll return, per the Associated Press, and having to learn new offensive and defensive systems, there are reasons to fret.
The good news for UF is that it's in the wide-open East. The bad news is there are too many problems inherited from Muschamp to push for an eight- or nine-win season. Those are grumbled at in the Swamp, and better is expected.
Trending Up: Arkansas
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Unlike some on this list, Arkansas has things lined up for what may be a magical season before it goes back into the middle of the pack.
But, boy, what a strong season it's shaping up to be for the Razorbacks.
Coach Bret Bielema has two workhorse running backs in Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins, perhaps the best offensive line in the country, a fifth-year senior quarterback in Brandon Allen and some defensive playmakers.
Though that defense doesn't get a lot of publicity, Bielema had positive things to say about it at SEC media days, according to Channel 5 News Online's Heather Geller:
"I've kind of referenced our defense as the bad news bears for the people who are of that vintage, that can understand where we're coming from," Bielema said. "A bunch of kids that come from nowhere, play well together and have great results."
There are plenty of reasons why many publications and websites rank the Hogs among the top 25. That running game accounts for Reasons 1, 2 and 3, though. Everybody is excited to see that group rip defenses to shreds.
But Arkansas must run a gauntlet of difficulty to get to the level the Hogs think this team can take them.
Not only must they navigate the rugged SEC West, they've got to go to Neyland Stadium to take on the other hyped 7-6 team on the other side of the slate, Tennessee.
It isn't an easy schedule, but the way Bielema's boys ran roughshod over opponents at the end of 2014, imposing their will and piling up rushing yards by the hundreds, nobody in Fayetteville is scared. They're just hungry to show the rest of the league that the hype is real.
It very well may be.
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Trending Down: LSU
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This is going to be a controversial pick, but the boxing gloves aren't necessarily coming off. The expectations are so high at LSU that "trending down" will be defined in relative terms.
But this analysis will probably go over like a snowstorm in Baton Rouge, and that's OK.
The bottom line is the SEC West is still loaded. While everybody should stop short of saying it's definitely the best division in college football, it's almost definitely the deepest. You can be a good team and lose several games.
LSU will be a good team. But the Tigers have too many uncertainties to get through it with the kind of record their fans believe they should have. They've got perhaps the nation's best running back in Leonard Fournette, but what about after him?
There are a lot of questions.
It isn't just quarterback issues, either (though that's a massive part of the reason). The Tigers haven't gotten quality quarterback play in a long time, and that has hamstrung Cam Cameron, who is one of the most respected offensive coordinators in the game.
The Kevin Steele experiment is a boom-or-bust scenario for the Tigers, who are having to replace respected and revered defensive coordinator John Chavis. "Chief" Chavis bolted for Texas A&M, leaving a lawsuit in his wake.
As the Advocate's Scott Rabalas wrote, there are reasons to be concerned, even if help is on the way with the elite recruiting staff the Bayou Bengals have built.
Rabalas wrote about the concerns about defensive line depth and shifting to the 3-4 scheme. Though there are tons of talented cornerbacks at LSU, there's a competition on who'll play opposite Tre'Davious White.
Then, there are offensive line question marks and special teams battles.
Oh, and don't forget the quarterback. That's worth mentioning twice.
LSU could be the same ol' strong LSU this year, but there are reasons to wonder.
Trending Up: Tennessee
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There's a major gap between scraping and clawing for a bowl game and competing for the SEC East title, but that's exactly the leap many prognosticators expect Tennessee to take this year.
Even the SEC media picked the Vols to finish second in the division ahead of two-time champ Missouri and behind Georgia.
So, is it still considered a dark horse season if you aren't sneaking up on folks?
The answer is yes. When you've wandered in the wilderness of ineptitude as a program for nearly a decade, crawling into the light is always a big deal. And it's huge on Rocky Top where fans may be getting a little big for their britches in predicting the season.
Thankfully for Tennessee fans, the players and coaches aren't.
"We really have a target on our back now," senior offensive tackle Kyler Kerbyson told the Associated Press' Steve Megargee. "We're not seen as just the easy game on the schedule. Teams are going to give us their best, the best they have. Coach (Butch) Jones reminds us of that every day."
With so much talent (albeit young) stockpiled in Knoxville by third-year coach Jones, UT has reason to be excited. Out of the past two over-sized classes, the Vols have signed 32 4- and 5-star players, according to a study of 247Sports rankings.
It's difficult to find many preseason rankings that don't include UT.
That's mainly because of offensive skill-position rising stars such as quarterback Joshua Dobbs and running back Jalen Hurd. But don't sleep on a defense that will have an elite pass rush and a really good secondary.
If UT can find a viable middle linebacker to fit into the center of that defense, the Vols may even surprise those who think they'll have a nice season. A lot of the swing games are in Neyland Stadium, and a big early-season road trip to Gainesville should determine a lot.
Win that one, and UT may just be back.
Trending Down: South Carolina
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It's time for the Head Ball Coach to remind everybody why he's one of the most legendary coaches of all time.
Not only must the Gamecocks replace quarterback Dylan Thompson and running back Mike Davis, there are also key pieces gone from the offensive line and the wide receiving corps. Throw in a rebuilding defense trying to be resurrected by new coordinator Jon Hoke and a rough schedule, and you see why there are problems.
The Gamecocks are picking a bad time to go into rebuilding mode.
Starting out on offense, at least Carolina returns all-world receiver Pharoh Cooper, who could be one of the most exciting receivers in the country as long as quarterback Connor Mitch gets him the ball.
Spurrier will try to find ways to get his playmaker the ball, and he won't hand those responsibilities to anybody else.
"I plan to be the play-caller again," Spurrier told the Charleston Post & Courier's David Caraviello. "I did delegate at times last year, but I usually took over before the game was over. But I certainly plan on doing it, and I’ll be ready to do it and go from there."
Defensively, the Gamecocks were a mess a season ago. Though Kansas-transfer Isaiah Johnson will help an ailing back end of the defense, there are still holes. However, if the line can get immediate exciting play from JUCO transfer Marquavius Lewis and sophomore Dante Sawyer, it may be a bright spot.
There was a lot of mixing and matching in the spring and there figures to be more of that this fall as Hoke tries to put the best players in a position to make plays.
They'll need to with a schedule that starts tough and doesn't relent. They start out with North Carolina in Charlotte followed by a home game against Kentucky. Then they go to Georgia before coming home to play Central Florida and traveling to Missouri.
That's not even to mention LSU, Texas A&M, Florida, Tennessee and Clemson, who all remain on their schedule after that tough start.
Carolina wants nothing more than to return to the form that saw it win 11 games in three consecutive seasons before last year's hiccup. Unfortunately, that doesn't look like it'll happen this year.
All recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports' composite rankings unless otherwise noted. All statistics gathered from CFBStats.com unless otherwise noted.
Brad Shepard covers SEC football for Bleacher Report. Follow Brad on Twitter @Brad_Shepard.
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