Hungarian Grand Prix 2015: 5 Bold Predictions for Hungaroring Race

The 2015 Formula One Hungarian Grand Prix will end a three-week gap between races caused by the cancellation of the German round. Though Mercedes will again be the team to beat, the tight and twisty Hungaroring should see the running order behind the Silver Arrows somewhat shaken up.

Williams were best of the rest at Silverstone, but a circuit with slow corners and short straights is unlikely to suit the FW37.

Red Bull look the most likely team to take over as Ferrari's main rivals for the final podium slots; downforce is king in Budapest, and the weak Renault engine should hamper the RB11 far less than it has at recent races.

Further back, McLaren will enter the weekend with a little more optimism than usual and we're backing Carlos Sainz Jr. to come out on top in the battle of the rookies.

Here's how we predict the weekend will unfold.

Red Bull in the Hunt for a Podium

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Red Bull have been on a dreadful run of late.

Since the (relatively) impressive fourth and fifth in Monaco, the Austrian team's cars have scored just 11 points—a ninth in Canada, a 10th at their home race and sixth at the British Grand Prix.

They now lie a whopping 88 points behind Williams in the chase for third in the constructors' championship and have 105 fewer points than at this stage last year.

But we can expect to see a mini-resurgence in Hungary.

The Hungaroring is a circuit filled with slow- to medium-speed corners, the sort around which the RB11 excels. An added bonus is the the presence of just one noteworthy straight—this means their horsepower deficit won't matter as much.

We know Mercedes will be quicker, but behind them the Ferraris—especially the one being driven by Kimi Raikkonen—could be vulnerable. With a bit of luck and some exceptional driving, either Daniel Ricciardo or Daniil Kvyat could well score Red Bull's first podium of the year.

And if they fail, it won't be by much.

Williams Set for a Tough Weekend

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As rivals Red Bull have toiled, Williams have been on fire. The Grove-based outfit have scored 70 points in the last three rounds—17 more than Ferrari.

But those circuits—Montreal, Spielberg and Silverstone—could have been made for the FW37. If it's a quick circuit, the Williams tends to be a very happy bunny.

If it's slow one, not so much. After the team's woeful display in Monaco—where their two cars trailed home in 14th and 15th—Williams head of vehicle performance, Rob Smedley, was quoted by ESPN admitting, "In low-speed corners we know that we have a deficit that we are working on."

The Hungaroring isn't as slow as Monte Carlo and whatever weakness the Williams has will not be exposed quite so brutally. But the car does lack downforce relative to rivals like Ferrari and Red Bull, and the dearth of straights on the tight and twisty track means their greatest asset—straight-line speed—will be almost nullified.

Valtteri Bottas and Felipe Massa will score points, but there'll be no hope of a podium challenge.

The End of Mercedes' 100 Percent Podium Record

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Both Mercedes W06s have finished every one of the nine races of the 2015 season so far. More impressively, both have been on the podium every single time. No team has ever achieved this feat in the opening nine races of a season, and the Brackley-based outfit are surely now targeting a 100 percent podium record for the year.

It's looking increasingly unlikely any team will be able to stop them on pace alone. But in 2014, Mercedes spoiled their own party in Hungary with a mixture of mechanical and strategic failures—and could do so again this year.

Despite their excellent race reliability, Mercedes have exhibited a few weaknesses in free practice. At the last grand prix, Nico Rosberg's Friday was compromised by a hydraulic problem, while BBC Sport recounts Lewis Hamilton had a number of issues in free practice for Malaysia.

The reigning world champion also needed a new set of control electronics after his first failed at the opening round in Australia.

Sooner or later, one of those problems is going to surface in a race. Perhaps a race in which temperatures are usually high, cooling is often problematic and where both drivers have a power unit doing its fourth weekend?

Or perhaps, as so very nearly happened here last year, Hamilton and Rosberg are going to collide. Overtaking isn't easy in Hungary and mistakes are more likely if the attacking driver has to work for the position.

So—though one of them will undoubtedly win—we think the perfect podium streak will end in Budapest.

Top Rookie: Carlos Sainz Jr.

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All four of the 2015's F1 rookies (or five, if we include Will Stevens) have experience racing at the Hungaroring. Perhaps surprisingly, Roberto Merhi has the best Budapest record of the lot of them—but his Manor won't be competitive enough for him to do well this weekend.

The fight will be between Sauber's Felipe Nasr and the Toro Rosso pair of Carlos Sainz Jr. and Max Verstappen. None of the trio finished the last race; Nasr didn't even start due to a technical problem, Sainz suffered an electrical fault and Verstappen spun out.

But we expect at least one of them will be in the points in Hungary—with Sainz leading the way.

Overtaking is tough around the narrow, twisty track, making qualifying even more important than it is elsewhere. The Spaniard has excelled over a single lap in 2015, outqualifying team-mate Verstappen six times in nine races.

There's no reason to believe he won't do it again this weekend. Providing he gets a decent start, the advantage of superior track position should take care of the rest.

Nasr has also qualified well but it looks like the development race has left Sauber behind. He'll be ahead of Marcus Ericsson but is unlikely to have enough pace to challenge the two baby bulls.

McLaren Will Be Quick Enough for Points

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McLaren lucked into a point at their home race after retirements and rainfall left Fernando Alonso in a position to drag his MP4-30 home in 10th.

Their only other points score of the season came in Monaco. On that occasion, Jenson Button finished eighth more or less on merit—and now that we're back at a slow, high-downforce track, McLaren should be back in the mix.

The underpowered Honda engine in the back of Button and Alonso's cars will still hurt them—the main straight long enough for it to cost them a tenth or two, and there are a few other high-speed sectors to consider.

But most of the lap consists of a string of slow- to medium-speed twists and turns; these are far more important to lap time than the straights.

McLaren will therefore be able run a more optimal downforce setup, get more out of a chassis that is fundamentally decent and compete for points on pace alone.

Whether they'll reach the end of the race and get a chance to actually score them is another matter entirely.