Preseason College Football Rankings 2015: Predicting Amway Coaches' Top 25 Poll
As if college football coaches don't already have enough to do in preparation for the 2015 season, nearly half of those in the FBS ranks also must determine who will be ranked in the Amway Coaches' Poll preseason Top 25.
All told, 62 coaches will vote in this year's weekly rankings, which no longer have a bearing on the national title race as they did during the BCS era but nevertheless still provide something to debate about each week. That starts with the preseason poll, which like most before-the-season lists and rankings is based as much on how things went last year as it is on what is expected this fall.
Since we don't know which coaches are voting this year—that gets released along with the initial poll—we can only speculate as to what their thinking will be in how they rank teams at the start of the 2015 season. We've already projected what we think the Associated Press preseason Top 25 will look like, and now it's the coaches' turn to have their rankings predicted.
Please take note: This isn't how Bleacher Report would rank the teams heading into 2015—we'll have our own preseason poll come out just before the season begins—but rather how we expect those who are on the Amway panel will vote. With that in mind, take a look at our projections, and then give us your thoughts in the comments section.
Others Receiving Votes
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Missouri (11th in final Amway poll)
Despite two consecutive SEC East championships, Missouri continues to get overlooked by voters heading into the season. The Tigers began the 2014 season just outside the coaches' poll as well, only to finish with 11 wins. However, this time around they don't have an overwhelming defensive line to fall back on in case Maty Mauk can't click with his all-new receiving corps.
Nebraska (Not ranked)
It had become almost a guarantee that Nebraska would open in the Top 25 under Bo Pelini and usually somewhere in the low teens or upper 20s, with the expectation that this would be the year the Cornhuskers got past the 9-4 or 10-4 ceiling. Now that Pelini has been fired and replaced by Oregon State's Mike Riley, they return to the ranks of wait-and-see teams that need to prove themselves before getting enough votes to be ranked.
Stanford (Not ranked)
Last year was a major outlier for the Cardinal, who after four consecutive seasons with at least 11 wins regressed to 8-5. But the return of quarterback Kevin Hogan brings reason for optimism in Palo Alto, and though Stanford has to replace its entire defensive line there are talented replacements waiting in the wings.
Utah (20th)
The Utes were a mild surprise last year, knocking off Stanford, UCLA and USC en route to a nine-win season. They did so with an aggressive front four that paced an FBS-best 55 sacks. While main attacker Nate Orchard is gone, there are plenty of pieces remaining. Utah also has its most important player back in running back Devontae Booker, who could hit 2,000 yards if used as much as expected.
Wisconsin (13th)
Unlike Nebraska, which has failed to live up to expectations most years, Wisconsin has consistently performed at a high level despite surprising coaching turnover. Paul Chryst is the Badgers' third coach in four years, and though he doesn't get the good fortune of being able to call plays for running back Melvin Gordon, he's got a pretty good backup to work with in Corey Clement.
25. Boise State
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Final 2014-15 Amway ranking: 16th
The preseason polls tend not to give too much love to the non-power conferences, but Boise State isn't your run-of-the-mill "Group of Five" team. The Broncos beat Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl last season, their third time coming out victorious in that major showcase since 2007.
Bryan Harsin's first season was a major success, and Boise could be even better this year even though it has to replace a wildly efficient quarterback (Grant Hedrick) and a prolific running back (Jay Ajayi). The program is as strong as it ever was under Chris Petersen, and the Broncos figure to be the best bet to represent the little guys in a major bowl.
24. Georgia Tech
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Final 2014-15 Amway ranking: 7th
Georgia Tech's triple-option was unstoppable last year, and it helped the Yellow Jackets reach the ACC title game and then run over Mississippi State to win the Orange Bowl. That run-heavy system will be in place again in 2015, though with a whole new set of backs for quarterback Justin Thomas to work with.
Despite the skill-position losses, Tech was picked by a wide margin to repeat as ACC Coastal Division champions.
The Yellow Jackets have a schedule that could make them the best chance the conference has to get into the playoffs, provided they can navigate matchups against Clemson, Florida State, Georgia and Notre Dame.
23. Mississippi State
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Final 2014-15 Amway ranking: 12th
Mississippi State began last season as part of the "others receiving votes" in the Amway poll, effectively considered the 28th-best team in the nation by the voting coaches. Two months later, the Bulldogs moved to No. 1 and stayed there for several weeks.
MSU's 9-0 start was dulled by a 1-3 finish, including a loss to Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl, but it was still the program's best season since 1999.
The Bulldogs will get enough votes to start in the Top 25 this year, but because of only nine returning starters they'll be hard pressed to match what they did in 2014. If they do, though, it will be because dual-threat quarterback Dak Prescott is again dominating with his arm and legs.
22. Oklahoma State
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Final 2014-15 Amway ranking: Not ranked
Oklahoma State was a young team last season and it showed for much of the year, but a late push got the Cowboys into a bowl game and over the hump at 7-6. Now Mike Gundy's team has more experience and should be closer to the ones he had from 2010-13 when he won 41 games.
Quarterback Mason Rudolph had his redshirt pulled late last year but thrived once he got settled in, and he'll be the key to the Cowboys offense. The defense brings back eight starters, including the entire secondary as well as stellar defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah.
OK State was picked to finish fourth in the Big 12, but it will be as much as player as anyone else in the league thanks to a back-loaded schedule that has front-runners Baylor, Oklahoma and TCU all coming to Stillwater in November.
21. Texas A&M
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Final 2014-15 Amway ranking: Not ranked
Since bursting onto the SEC scene in its debut season in 2012, winning 11 games, Texas A&M has slid back to the pack the past two years. An 8-5 record last year was mostly due to a defense that couldn't make stops when it mattered most, negating another strong offensive performance.
Kevin Sumlin hopes he's found the answer to those defensive deficiencies by stealing coordinator John Chavis away from LSU. Chavis' Tigers teams stifled A&M the previous three seasons, and Sumlin admitted at SEC media days last week that he essentially went after Chavis since he couldn't beat him.
"I didn't kind of," Sumlin said, per Brandon Wheeland of the Dallas Morning News. "That's exactly what I did. There's really nothing more to the answer than that."
If the defense can improve, and sophomore quarterback Kyle Allen carries over his play from late last season, A&M will again be contending in the SEC.
20. LSU
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Final 2014-15 Amway ranking: Not ranked
Every year the preseason polls seem to have at least one team that, despite how it performed the year before, is given the benefit of the doubt that the upcoming season will be better. LSU is that team in 2015, though it's in spite of not just last year's results but from the past three.
Since losing to Alabama in the 2012 BCS title game, the Tigers haven't been serious championship contenders. The 11 losses over the last three seasons are the most for the program since 2007-09, despite perennially landing one of the best recruiting classes in the country.
That's again the case this year, as LSU's freshman class was rated fifth overall by 247Sports. That includes cornerback Kevin Toliver II, who figures to make as quick a splash as 2014 stud recruit Leonard Fournette did at running back.
19. Arkansas
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Final 2014-15 Amway ranking: Not ranked
Halfway through last season, Arkansas remained a team that seemed one win away from really becoming a force to be reckoned with. Then came back-to-back shutout victories, against LSU and Ole Miss, and now the Razorbacks have become just that team.
Bret Bielema lifted the Hogs from 3-9 in his first season to 7-6 last year, doing so with an against-the-grain offense that focused on NFL-sized blockers and a pair of 1,000-yard rushers (Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams), both of whom return for another season of big holes opened for them up front.
Arkansas also has a formidable defense coming back, though it might not be as good as last year. As a result, the SEC media only picked it to finish fourth in the ultra-tough West Division.
18. Arizona
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Final 2014-15 Amway ranking: 17th
Arizona won the Pac-12 South last season with its best record (10-4) since 1998 and made its first trip to a major bowl game (the Fiesta) since 1993. The Wildcats ended on a two-game losing streak, though, getting blown out by Oregon in the Pac-12 final and then falling to Boise State in the bowl game.
Despite that late slippage, the Wildcats should again be in contention for a division title thanks to the return of all of its key skill players including sophomores Anu Solomon at quarterback and Nick Wilson at running back. They also bring back most of their defensive front, most notably junior linebacker Scooby Wright.
Wright was the top defender in the country in 2014, winning three major national awards while leading FBS in tackles, tackles for loss and forced fumbles.
Rich Rodriguez has won 26 games in his first three seasons, the most for Arizona in a three-year span since the mid-1970s.
17. Tennessee
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Final 2014-15 Amway ranking: Not ranked
Tennessee is coming off its first winning season since 2009, a 7-6 campaign that South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier joked resulted in the Volunteers "doing cartwheels."
Vols coach Butch Jones begs to differ, noting that last year's success was just the start of the rise of his program.
"Contrary to reports, there were no back flips and there were no somersaults," Jones said, per CBS Sports' Chip Patterson. "In the world of college football, you're judged on wins and losses but you're also judged by, 'Did your team overachieve,' or 'Did your team underachieve?'. We expect to win, we don't just hope to win."
Tennessee was very young last year and will still be young in 2015 but far more experienced and confident. That starts and ends with dynamic quarterback Joshua Dobbs, whose insertion into the lineup midway through last season triggered the winning record.
16. Oklahoma
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Final 2014-15 Amway ranking: Not ranked
Last year's Amway preseason poll turned out to be pretty accurate, as the four teams that made the playoffs were all ranked in the top six. The most notable miss, though, was Oklahoma, which was picked third but ended up falling far short of expectations.
An 8-5 season prompted coach Bob Stoops to do a major overhaul in Norman, making numerous changes to his staff that included bringing in Lincoln Riley as offensive coordinator. And with that came a switch from the spread to the Air Raid, which Stoops used during much of his tenure with the Sooners to great success.
Who will run that offense remains to be seen, as Trevor Knight will battle Texas Tech transfer Baker Mayfield for the starting job. Mayfield ran the Air Raid in 2013 and was sharp, but he sat out last season.
15. UCLA
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Final 2014-15 Amway ranking: 10th
UCLA went into the 2014 season as a trendy pick to make the playoffs despite the program having not won its own conference since the late 1990s. The Bruins looked the part early on, but surprise home losses to Utah and Stanford kept them from even winning their own division.
Now they go into this fall likely starting a true freshman at quarterback, though star prospect Josh Rosen isn't like most first-year players. His high school career at St. John Bosco in California featured several nationally televised games, which should help him be prepared for the spotlight.
UCLA won't have to be too reliant on Rosen thanks to underrated running back Paul Perkins, as well as a strong defense full of playmakers like linebacker Myles Jack and lineman Eddie Vanderdoes.
14. Arizona State
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Final 2014-15 Amway ranking: 14th
Todd Graham has put together something special at Arizona State, winning 28 games in his first three seasons including back-to-back 10-win efforts. Now with his most experienced team during that run, the Sun Devils should be a strong contender for not just division and Pac-12 titles but also a push for the playoffs.
ASU has addressed its two biggest holes with players who were major contributors from a year ago. Mike Bercovici started three games at quarterback when Taylor Kelly was down with a broken leg, and that experience provided him with a baseline for being the man in charge in 2015 as a senior. The Sun Devils lost top receiver Jaelen Strong to the NFL draft, but thanks to depth at running back they were able to shift 1,000-yard rusher D.J. Foster into a slot receiver.
The Devils' schedule has plenty of opportunities to get national attention, starting with a high-profile opener against Texas A&M in Houston. There's also a killer run midway through the season when they face UCLA, USC and Oregon in a five-game stretch.
13. Ole Miss
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Final 2014-15 Amway ranking: 19th
Ole Miss matched its best win total of the past decade in 2014 by going 9-4, but it could have been so much better. A rash of injuries during the second half of the season stunted what the Rebels accomplished in starting 7-0, and now they must replace several key pieces from that team.
Most of those are on the defensive side, where the so-called "Landsharks" made their mark through stellar pass defense and a unit that allowed an FBS-best 16 points per game. But even with the departures, Ole Miss should again have a strong defense that will be called on to carry the load at times for an uncertain offense.
The Rebels still have to decide on a quarterback to replace gunslinger Bo Wallace, but the real key to the offense is the health of wide receiver Laquon Treadwell. His broken leg suffered late in a home loss to Auburn triggered the second-half slide, but he appears ready to be a star once again.
"With Treadwell back, optimism has returned to Oxford, and he's become one of those rare players who just about everyone in the SEC can't help but root for," Bleacher Report's Christopher Walsh wrote.
12. Clemson
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Final 2014-15 Amway ranking: 15th
Clemson was two distinctly different teams in 2014, one that had to rely on its defense to overcome an inconsistent offense and another that was the Deshaun Watson show. Had there been more of the latter, the Tigers would have done much better overall, but Watson couldn't stay healthy.
Watson broke his hand and suffered two knee injuries, the last causing the freshman quarterback to have offseason surgery that kept him out of most workouts this spring. He's on track to be at 100 percent for this year, which is the main reason Clemson was the overwhelming favorite by ACC media to unseat Florida State as conference champs.
The Tigers led the nation in total defense last year, but most of that unit has graduated. Assuming Watson can avoid further injury, Clemson won't need to keep the score down to win.
11. Georgia
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Final 2014-15 Amway ranking: 9th
Georgia has once again been picked to win the SEC's East Division, and like most years it's talented enough to take the entire conference and make a run for the national championship. But whether that happens this time around, or the Bulldogs stumble along the way as is often the case, is anyone's guess.
Last year's success or failure was supposed to be dependent on how running back Todd Gurley performed, but when he was suspended by the NCAA and then lost to a knee injury there was no drop-off thanks to the emergence of freshman Nick Chubb. Now he's the focal point of the offense, helping to offset lingering uncertainty at the quarterback position.
The Bulldogs' strength might be on the defensive side of the ball, though, as second-year coordinator Jeremy Pruitt has one of the best linebacker groups in the country to work with.
Georgia will have no shortage of opportunities to prove its mettle, facing both Alabama and Auburn in SEC crossover games and also visiting rival Georgia Tech to end the season.
10. Oregon
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Final 2014-15 Amway ranking: 2nd
Oregon played in the national championship game for the second time in five seasons last year, but like after the 2010 season it fell short of a title. And now the Ducks move forward without arguably their best player in program history, Heisman-winning quarterback Marcus Mariota, who is now with the NFL's Tennessee Titans.
Who will replace Mariota is still uncertain, as transfer Vernon Adams still hasn't arrived from FCS Eastern Washington. He'll battle with Jeff Lockie, Mariota's backup, for the starting job, but whoever wins out will have no shortage of standout running backs and receivers to work with.
The Ducks' run to the championship game last season was fueled by an early nonconference win over Michigan State. They have to visit the Spartans this year, but again that result will set the tone for the year.
9. Florida State
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Final 2014-15 Amway ranking: 6th
Florida State had a magical two-year run that included a national championship and 29 consecutive wins, but now the Seminoles find themselves at a crossroads following the departure of 11 players who were drafted into the NFL. The most significant was quarterback Jameis Winston, and so far FSU hasn't figured out who will replace that star.
The best bet is Notre Dame transfer Everett Golson, but he alone won't be enough to keep FSU riding high. It needs strong contributions from a rebuilt offensive line and a talented but young set of skill players, which may or may not include sophomore running back Dalvin Cook pending his suspension following an assault arrest.
FSU isn't lacking for star power, especially on defense where it might have the best secondary in the country led by junior Jalen Ramsey.
8. Notre Dame
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Final 2014-15 Amway ranking: Not ranked
When Notre Dame went unbeaten in 2012 en route to the national title game, it was doing so with a talented but unproven young quarterback and a veteran defense. The Fighting Irish have a similar makeup this season, just with different jersey numbers than three years ago.
Malik Zaire is in the role previously held by Everett Golson, who lost his starting quarterback job during the offseason and opted to transfer to Florida State for his final year. Zaire has been fun to watch in his limited action and could be a huge weapon this season, but he still has to show he can do it on a full-time basis.
The same can't be said for Notre Dame's defense, which returns 10 starters led by stud linebacker Jaylon Smith.
Another strong schedule will make or break Notre Dame's playoff chances, as the Irish face eight bowl teams from a year ago including Clemson, Georgia Tech and USC.
7. USC
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Final 2014-15 Amway ranking: 21st
It wasn't long ago that USC was a regular fixture much higher than here in preseason polls. The Trojans were the preseason No. 1 in the 2012 Associated Press rankings, only to go 7-6 and finish closer to the bottom of the FBS than the top.
But after a strong 2014 season (that could have been stronger if not for a few missteps along the way), it looks like USC might be back. That's assuming its overabundance of talent is able to live up to expectations and coach Steve Sarkisian can shake off his reputation for not being able to win big.
Sarkisian won't have any excuses if this potentially explosive team doesn't win the Pac-12 and get into the playoffs, not with a stellar fifth-year senior quarterback in Cody Kessler and stars at nearly every position. He's also got possibly the most exciting individual player in the country in sophomore Adoree' Jackson, who has the potential to score on offense, defense and special teams in the same game.
6. Auburn
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Final 2014-15 Amway ranking: 23rd
We didn't know what to expect from Auburn during Gus Malzahn's first season in 2013, since the Tigers were coming off a 3-9 campaign and had a relatively unproven coach running the show. But then Auburn reached the final BCS title game, and now its returned to the ranks of the perennial contenders.
Even after a disappointing 2014 season, the Tigers are again expected to be in the mix for a title thanks to two major upgrades: defensive coordinator Will Muschamp and quarterback Jeremy Johnson.
Muschamp, who couldn't cut it as Florida's head coach, is expected to vastly improve Auburn's leaky defense that was a major liability last year. And Johnson, a junior who has started only two games in his career, comes in with a much-hyped arm that should enable Auburn to be far more balanced offensively than when it was guided by run-first quarterback Nick Marshall.
5. Michigan State
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Final 2014-15 Amway ranking: 5th
Michigan State doesn't bring back a particularly large number of starters from last year's 11-win team, but it does bring back several very notable stars. Quarterback Connor Cook, defensive end Shilique Calhoun and center Jack Allen all passed on the NFL draft to return as redshirt seniors, and that kind of experience is incredibly valuable.
"The senior class talent is such that Michigan State is a legitimate national championship contender," MLive.com's Mike Griffith wrote.
Experience only goes so far, though. There's still the tall task of having to overcome defending national champion Ohio State just to be able to win its half of the Big Ten. Losing to the Buckeyes last season kept MSU out of the playoff picture, and the same would be the case this season, though this year the game is on the road.
4. Baylor
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Final 2014-15 Amway ranking: 8th
Baylor coach Art Briles hasn't been shy of late in explaining why he felt neither his team nor TCU were able to land a playoff berth in 2014 despite only one loss apiece. According to ESPN's Brett McMurphy, Briles said "if Baylor or TCU had an older brand name" one of them would have made it into the four-team field.
The Bears might not be as steeped in tradition as other top college football teams, but after the last few years it's hard to argue they're not a popular modern program. And with that comes raised expectations as well as a lofty preseason ranking.
Baylor has to replace a big part of the last two seasons' success in quarterback Bryce Petty, but successor Seth Russell is cut from pretty much the same cloth and should fit right into the uptempo system. He also has plenty of weapons at his disposal, not to mention a very soft early schedule to ease into the role.
That schedule again could be Baylor's kryptonite, since its lack of a notable nonconference opponent likely means the Bears have to go undefeated to reach the playoffs.
3. TCU
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Final 2014-15 Amway ranking: 3rd
A year ago, TCU was considered a dark horse, one that received some preseason votes despite having gone 4-8 the season before. No one could have predicted how big of a leap the Horned Frogs would take in one year, certainly no projections had them knocking on the door of the playoffs.
But now the Frogs are no longer a sleeper but instead are a true contender. Quarterback Trevone Boykin was unstoppable last year, and he enters 2015 as Odds Shark's early Heisman favorite. Boykin is once again loaded with weapons to work with.
TCU missed out on the semifinals last year because of its lone loss to Baylor as well as a perception that the Big 12's lack of a conference title game hindered the top teams' resumes. The same scenario is possible this year, which makes the Frogs' entire season likely come down to how it fares Nov. 27 at home against Baylor.
2. Alabama
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Final 2014-15 Amway ranking: 4th
The SEC media may have picked Auburn to win the conference—despite not being chosen to win its own division—but that league's coaches are more apt to go with the old standard of putting Alabama at the top and letting the rest play out.
Seven SEC coaches voted last year, and if the number is anywhere close to that in 2015 it should ensure having a team ranked rather high in the preseason despite the league struggling as much as it did in its bowl games. And the Tide should also benefit from voters being split as to which of the Big 12's top teams should be ranked higher, thus locking up the No. 2 spot.
It's not like Alabama isn't worthy of such a ranking, not with stud running back Derrick Henry poised to become the workhorse this year behind a solid offensive line as well as an ironclad defense that might feature the best front seven in the country. A question mark remains at quarterback, but that also existed in 2014 and offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin managed to turn Blake Sims into a star.
1. Ohio State
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Final 2014-15 Amway ranking: 1st
The only real suspense at the top of the preseason Amway poll is going to be whether Ohio State can be a unanimous No. 1 as defending national champions. Florida State had 56 of 62 votes in last year's preseason poll, with four other schools also getting consideration, but the Buckeyes appear far stronger than the Seminoles team that returned for 2014-15.
Ohio State returns a nearly intact unit from the one that rebounded from the shocking September home loss to Virginia Tech and ran off 13 straight wins. The Buckeyes didn't lose any significant pieces from that team and in fact have more coming back than that thanks to the presence of three star quarterbacks.
Senior Braxton Miller, junior Cardale Jones and sophomore J.T. Barrett will battle for the starting QB job, and coach Urban Meyer probably can't go wrong with whomever he chooses. However, if the uncertainty at that position becomes a distraction, it could lead to the Buckeyes failing to match or surpass last year's performance.
"There's no debating whether Ohio State will have a qualified signal-caller behind center, regardless of who is ultimately named the Buckeyes' starter," Bleacher Report's Ben Axelrod wrote. "But how the quarterbacks who wind up on the bench handle the situation could determine how the 2015 Buckeyes fare in their quest to repeat as national champions."
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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