UFC Fight Night 72: Main Card Betting Odds and Predictions
At UFC Fight Night 72, Michael Bisping will look to get back into the middleweight title-shot picture while halting the resurgence of Thales Leites.
Having alternated wins and losses over his past nine appearances, Bisping has not been able to gain enough momentum for his first shot at the 185-pound belt. A win over Leites, who has eight consecutive victories, would give Bisping two in a row and would be a big step in the right direction.
Undefeated in his five bouts since returning to the UFC roster, Leites has made an unlikely run toward the top of the middleweight division. The Brazilian fought for the belt in 2009 and was beaten by Anderson Silva, but a win over Bisping could mean Leites would be closing in on a second crack at UFC gold.
In addition to Bisping and Leites, the UFC Fight Night 72 will also feature Ross Pearson, Evan Dunham and others. Here are current odds and predictions for every matchup on the main card.
Stevie Ray (-200) vs. Leonardo Mafra (+160)
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With a submission win over Marcin Bandel in his UFC debut, Stevie Ray looks like very promising fighter in the lightweight division. On Saturday, he'll get a chance to take another step forward in front of his home crowd in Glasgow, Scotland.
Following a rough debut against Rick Story, Leonardo Mafra bounced back by beating Cain Carrizosa. Mafra also has some upside, but the Brazilian will be entering hostile territory at UFC Fight Night 72.
Ray should be able to feed off of the fans in attendance and beat Mafra on the ground. Given his lack of experience at the highest level, I wouldn't bet big on Ray, but I would be confident enough to lay some money down on Braveheart.
Prediction: Ray
Play: One percent bankroll on Mafra
Leon Edwards (-265) vs. Pawel Pawlak (+205)
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After suffering a close decision loss to Claudio Silva in his first trip to the Octagon, Leon Edwards needed a win in his sophomore outing. He got a big one, as he knocked out veteran Seth Baczynski in eight seconds to show he belonged on the UFC roster.
Pawel Pawlak also rebounded in his second UFC appearance after losing to Peter Sobotta. In April, Pawlak picked up his first victory inside the Octagon with a decision nod over Sheldon Westcott.
Edwards and Pawlak have both recorded several knockouts in their careers, so there is a good chance this one is decided with striking. If that is the case, I'll give the edge to Edwards after such a strong stand-up performance against Baczynski.
Prediction: Edwards
Play: One percent bankroll on Edwards
Joanne Calderwood (-365) vs. Cortney Casey-Sanchez (+275)
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When she joined the UFC roster, many figured Joanne Calderwood would be an immediate threat to capture the strawweight championship. As it has turned out, she still has some work to do on the ground before she can become the best at 115 pounds.
Originally, Calderwood was scheduled to meet Bec Rawlings on Saturday. However, she will now meet replacement opponent Cortney Casey-Sanchez on short notice this weekend. Casey-Sanchez will be making her UFC debut and only has five pro bouts under her belt.
Fighting in front of her home crowd against an inexperienced opponent, Scotland's Calderwood should be able to cruise to a win at UFC Fight Night 72.
Prediction: Calderwood
Play: Two percent bankroll on Calderwood
Joseph Duffy (-800) vs. Ivan Jorge (+500)
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Irishman Joseph Duffy has all his ducks in a row to make a run at title contention in the lightweight division. At 27 years old, he has time on his side and is training at a very solid camp: Tristar Gym.
Meanwhile, Ivan Jorge needs to make a move now if he wants to gain any recognition in the deep 155-pound class. The Brazilian has a respectable 2-1 UFC record, but he is already 34 years old and has 30 MMA bouts on his resume, which could mean he might not have much gas left in the tank.
All signs point to a Duffy win in this matchup. However, at these odds, the risk isn't worth what would be a very small return on investment.
Prediction: Duffy
Play: Pass
Ross Pearson (-210) vs. Evan Dunham (+170)
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In March, Ross Pearson picked up a big knockout win over Sam Stout. Now, he'll look to take another step toward lightweight contention with a similar result against Evan Dunham.
Dunham last appeared in January, when he ended a three-bout losing streak with a win over Rodrigo Damm. That win likely saved Dunham's UFC career, which has been going strong for more than six years now.
Pearson has an edge in striking, but Dunham is scrappy and tough to put away. I think he holds his own when standing and steals a decision by taking Pearson down a couple times.
Prediction: Dunham
Play: One percent bankroll on Dunham
Michael Bisping (-115) vs. Thales Leites (-115)
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Bisping hasn't been able to put two straight wins together since 2011. He's still a top middleweight, but he hasn't been able to gain nearly enough momentum to earn a shot at the belt.
Leites, on the other hand, has tons of momentum going. Since returning to the UFC roster, the Brazilian has posted a 5-0 record and most recently submitted Tim Boetsch.
With the right matchups, I think Leites could have made a run at his second UFC title shot. However, I don't think he matches up well against Bisping.
The Englishman has underrated defensive wrestling and possesses a big advantage in a five-round contest with his excellent conditioning.
Prediction: Bisping
Play: One percent bankroll on Bisping
Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.
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