NASCAR at New Hampshire 2015: Preview and Prediction for the New Hampshire 301

With eight races remaining to set the 16-driver field for the Chase for the Sprint Cup, Sunday’s race at New Hampshire marks the unofficial start of the so-called Race to the Chase, the eight-race runup to the playoffs that oftentimes is more exciting than the Chase itself.

There are still a number of drivers who have yet to earn their first victory of 2015, a key benchmark to make the Chase. Among those are Jeff Gordon, Kasey Kahne, Aric Almirola, AJ Allmendinger and Greg Biffle, all of whom made last year’s Chase.

New Hampshire Motor Speedway is a venue that brings out some outstanding racing. That’s why it’s not unusual that the Loudon, New Hampshire, track is typically sold-out or close to being sold-out when the NASCAR circus comes to town.

In case you’re wondering, the series returns to the normal aero package for this Sunday’s race. While last Saturday’s track-specific aero package at Kentucky Speedway was an overwhelming success, New Hampshire’s short track, as well as the lack of eye-popping speed, makes aero elements not as important as 1.5-mile and larger tracks.

As has been the case at several tracks of late, rain is always the wild card at New Hampshire. Let’s hope for sunshine and a 12th different winner in 2015.

By the Numbers: New Hampshire Motor Speedway

Cheryl Senter/Associated Press

Brad Keselowski is defending champion of this race.

5-HOUR ENERGY 301

Place: New Hampshire Motor Speedway

Date: Sunday, July 19

Time: 1:30 p.m. (ET)

TV: NBCSN, 1 p.m. (ET)

Radio: Performance Racing Network, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio

Distance: 301 laps, 318.6 miles (1.06-mile oval)

Defending winner: Brad Keselowski

Youngest winner: Joey Logano on June, 28, 2009 (19 years, one month, four days)

Oldest winner: Mark Martin on September 20, 2009 (50 years, eight months, 11 days)

Youngest pole winner: Brian Vickers on July 17, 2005 (21 years, eight months, 23 days)

Oldest pole winner: Bill Elliott on July 21, 2002 (46 years, nine months, 13 days)

Most wins: Jeff Burton (four)

Most poles: Ryan Newman (seven)

Most top fives: Jeff Gordon (16)

Most top 10s: Jeff Gordon (22)

Lead-lap finishes: Jeff Gordon (34)

Laps completed: Jeff Gordon (11,666)

Laps led: Jeff Gordon (1,371)

Most race starts at Loudon: Jeff Gordon (40)

Most laps led: 1,371 (Jeff Gordon)

Race record: Jeff Burton 117.134 mph (July 13, 1997)

Qualifying record: Brad Keselowski 140.598 mph (September 21, 2014)

Best average start: Ryan Newman (8.692)

Best average finish: Jimmie Johnson (10.269)

TRACK NOTES:

• Total number of races at Loudon to date: 40
• Total number of different pole winners in Loudon history: 18
• Races won from pole: five
• Last race won from pole: Ryan Newman (July 17, 2011)
• Number of race winners at Loudon: 24
• DNFs (most): Joe Nemechek (15)
• DNFs (least): Mark Martin (0)

Statistical information provided by NASCAR Media Relations.

Key Storylines

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Can Jeff Gordon win his first race of the season Sunday?

Could the Magic Mile Come Through for Jeff Gordon

Having failed to earn his first win—and in his last appearance—at Kentucky Speedway, Jeff Gordon returns to New Hampshire Motor Speedway. The track in Loudon has been one of Gordon’s better tracks in his career, with three wins, 16 top fives and 22 top 10s (plus four poles) in 40 starts there.

This will be Gordon’s second-to-last start at the flat one-mile surface. His last run will come in September during the Chase for the Sprint Cup.

Let’s Go Back to the Old Ways

After the very successful end result of a track-specific aero rules package implemented this past Saturday at Kentucky, NASCAR returns to the standard aero package at Loudon, which is a flat one-mile track. Drivers like racing at Loudon, but it can be very tight to pass.

Either Busch Brother Is All Right

Brothers Kurt and Kyle Busch have combined for four wins at New Hampshire between them: three for Kurt and one for Kyle. However, the last brother to win on the flat one-mile track is Kurt back in the summer of 2008.

Kyle, who won last Saturday at Kentucky, is a man on a mission to win as many races as he can between now and Richmond to potentially make the Chase. Look for him to put on yet another show on Sunday, potentially with Kurt right behind him.

The Countdown Continues

There are now just eight races left for drivers who remain winless in 2015 to visit Victory Lane and to qualify for the Chase for the Sprint Cup. Among those still with a zero in the "W" column are Jeff Gordon, Jamie McMurray, Kasey Kahne, Paul Menard, 2014 runner-up Ryan Newman, Clint Bowyer, Aric Almirola, AJ Allmendinger, Kyle Larson, Greg Biffle, Danica Patrick, Austin Dillon, Casey Mears, David Ragan, Tony Stewart, Sam Hornish Jr., Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Justin Allgaier and Cole Whitt.

A Blast from the Past

One of the main reasons so many drivers enjoy returning to New Hampshire is it’s a flat one-mile track similar to the kind of short tracks that so many of those same drivers grew up on. Plus, New England has plenty to see and do for drivers and their families, including great seafood, closeness to Canada and, if so inclined, a trip to Boston about 75 miles away.

Drivers to Watch

Terry Renna/Associated Press

Can Tony Stewart finally turn things around at New Hampshire?

Tony Stewart 

Is it finally Smoke’s time? Tony Stewart is experiencing the worst season ever of his career. Through 18 races, he has zero wins, zero top fives and just one top 10. He’s ranked 28th in the standings and, even worse, has not won a race since 2013 (more than two years). If there were ever a track for Smoke to turn things around, Loudon is the place. In 31 career starts there, he has three wins, 14 top-five and 18 top-10 finishes.

Martin Truex Jr.

It has been a rough last three races for Martin Truex Jr. He’s finished 42nd (Sonoma), 38th (Daytona) and 17th (Kentucky). And during that time, he’s also fallen from second to fifth place in the standings.

Truex has had mixed results at Loudon: In 18 starts, he has zero wins, three top-five and six top-10 finishes. He needs to make a big comeback after the disappointment he’s gone through the last three races, and there’s no better place right now for him than Loudon this Sunday.

Logano Back Home

Joey Logano returns to his home track this weekend. He’s won twice at Loudon, including last season's Chase race. It was also the sight of his first career Cup race in 2009 while with Joe Gibbs Racing. Logano has not won a race this season since the season-opening Daytona 500. He’s overdue. What better place than to win for a third time at his home track?

Ditto for Keselowski

Like Penske Racing teammate Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski has also won just one race this season (Fontana). And considering Keselowski won this race at New Hampshire last year, look for him to try to tag-team with his teammate for a one-two finish. Even though they are both in the Chase for the Sprint Cup, Keselowski and Logano both desperately need a win at this point of the season to at the very least show they still can.

Remember, Keselowski had a series-leading six wins last season, while Logano had five. New Hampshire could be the best place for both of them to achieve just that.

Danica Patrick Could Be a Surprise

Danica Patrick has made just four career Sprint Cup starts at Loudon, with finishes of 37th, 27th, 22nd and 19th. At least that shows an upward trend of improvement for her. Much like the way Dale Earnhardt Jr. broke his long streak of poor performances at Sonoma last season, finishing third (and top 10) for the first time ever there, Patrick has the potential to surprise at Loudon. It’s as simple a track as you can find, and that could very well be the kind of track Patrick needs to potentially earn the first top-five finish of her Cup career.

Favorites

John Raoux/Associated Press

Kyle Busch

Kyle Busch loves race tracks like New Hampshire. He likes to muscle his way around the tight one-mile track and has a knack for being in the right place at the right time. Plus, he has the incentive of further cutting down the margin of points he needs to be eligible for the Chase for the Sprint Cup. If he gets at least two more wins—and doesn’t suffer any setbacks—in the next eight races, it will go a long way toward getting him where he wants to be.

Kurt Busch

Older Busch brother Kurt is a master at New Hampshire, with three wins, seven top-five and 11 top-10 finishes there in 28 career Sprint Cup starts. The elder Busch is a threat to win there anytime, any day and any way. If he can stay out of trouble (as in other people’s wrecks), he has one of the best shots of winning on Sunday.

Tony Stewart

Of all the recent tracks the Sprint Cup circuit has visited, Tony Stewart just hasn’t been able to relive some of his past success at each of those. Things have the potential to change at New Hampshire. With three past wins there, Stewart knows how to navigate around the one-mile flat oval. Even a top-five finish will go a long way toward getting him back on track, both literally and figuratively.

Kyle Larson

We continue to wait for Kyle Larson to earn his first career Sprint Cup race. While Larson has had numerous opportunities at tracks that favor his style of driving, including Fontana, Bristol Motor Speedway, Richmond International Raceway and last week at Kentucky, he’s still not reached Victory Lane.

That could finally change Sunday, as Larson is a master of flat-track racing. Loudon lets drivers muscle their way around more than most other tracks, as well letting them slip and slide more—which is Larson’s specialty. If he finally wins Sunday, we won’t be surprised.

Denny Hamlin

How can you not include a guy like Denny Hamlin on this list? Hamlin loves racing on flat tracks and typically does well, particularly at New Hampshire. At the one-mile track, he has 18 starts, including two wins, seven top-five and 11 top-10 finishes.

Dark-Horse Pick: Clint Bowyer

Nick Wass/Associated Press

If his poor season keeps up, Clint Bowyer’s face is likely going to wind up on the side of a milk carton.

He has been so far under the radar that he’s practically a UFO.

But that can change dramatically with a win Sunday at New Hampshire, a place where Bowyer has a very good record: 18 starts, two wins, four top-five and seven top-10 finishes.

And the Winner Is: Joey Logano

Cheryl Senter/Associated Press

Joey Logano always seems to get up more for races at his home track in New Hampshire.

While he’s shown great consistency this season, wins have been in short supply.

Other than his triumph at Daytona International Speedway in the season opener, Logano has simply not come close to Victory Lane as much as he should have.

Look for him to change that on Sunday in front of his family and friends.

And what a great homecoming that will be.

Follow me on Twitter @JerryBonkowski.