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UNC Basketball: 5 Things That Should Worry Fans in 2015-16

Rob GoldbergJul 14, 2015

North Carolina will have an extremely talented roster for the 2015-16 season, but that doesn't necessarily guarantee a championship. A lot can go wrong for even the best teams in college basketball.

It's not hard to find flaws with the team, even with its deep roster full of experienced players and possible future NBA draft picks, paired with a head coach who has won multiple national championships. This doesn't necessarily imply a downfall, but there are certainly weaknesses to be cautious about before buying Final Four tickets.

Looking at the squad with an extremely critical eye, here are the things UNC fans should be most worried about going into next season.

Marcus Paige's Regression

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Two years ago, Marcus Paige was one of the best guards in the country. He was named first-team All-ACC as a sophomore after averaging 17.5 points per game and had understandably high expectations coming into last year.

Unfortunately, the junior struggled at times and only managed to score 14.1 points per game. While this still led the Tar Heels and he was willing to defer to his talented teammates, this might not cut it next year.

The problem last season was a lack of aggressiveness. While his three-point shooting numbers were about the same as the year before, Paige took about two fewer two-point attempts per game while getting to the free-throw line at a lower rate.

Even with a loaded roster around him, Paige needs to be the go-to option on the floor. He is the best shot-creater on the team and is the best one capable of getting a basket when the team truly needs it.

If he continues to pass up opportunities, North Carolina could be in trouble.

Perimeter Defense

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The only major loss from last season's team is J.P. Tokoto, after the guard declared for the NBA draft. Of all the contributions he provided, his outstanding perimeter defense will be what North Carolina will miss most.

Tokoto utilized his length and athleticism to smother opposing guards and prevent them from getting good looks in the lane. He led the team last year in defensive plus/minus, adding 5.3 points per 100 possessions, according to Sports Reference.

Neither Paige nor Justin Jackson could be considered true stoppers defensively, so the squad will likely have to rely on rising sophomore Theo Pinson to fill that role. He certainly has the potential to take out an opponent's best player, but the experience isn't there after injuries limited him to just 24 games last season.

Until Pinson proves he can be a full-time player, this will remain a major question mark for UNC.

Lack of Proven Shooters

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One of the biggest weaknesses for North Carolina last season was a lack of quality outside shooters.

Even with Paige making 39.5 percent of his shots from beyond the arc, few other players on the floor were capable of spreading the defense with their shooting. Jackson, Nate Britt and Joel Berry II have shown flashes of a shooting ability, but a lack of consistency makes them untrustworthy at this stage.

The best hope in this area is incoming freshmen Kenny Williams and Luke Maye. As a stretch 4, Maye might struggle to get playing time ahead of a deep list of frontcourt players, but Williams could come in and contribute immediately as instant offense off the bench.

Of course, there have been plenty of elite high school shooters who struggle when they get to college. Defenders are bigger and more athletic and close quicker, making everything tougher.

The talent is there for UNC to expand the offense with shooting, but we won't know until we see it.

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Ability to Handle Size Inside

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North Carolina will have one of the top frontcourts in the nation next season. Not only do Kennedy Meeks and Brice Johnson make a quality starting duo down low, but Isaiah Hicks and Joel James will also provide excellent depth throughout the year.

The only problem will come when an opposing team comes to town with a true inside scoring threat with size. At 6'9", 290 pounds, Meeks can handle strength but could be in trouble against a seven-footer with the ability to score over him.

While in reality there are only a handful of back-to-the-basket scorers in college basketball, UNC still has to be cautious of anyone if it wants to win a championship.

Nonconference games like Maryland, Texas and UCLA could be quality tests for this issue, with all of them having quality low-post players on the roster.

Duke's Reloaded Roster

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There is no question Tar Heels fans were excited to see the trio of Jahlil Okafor, Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones all declare for the draft after winning a national championship last season. However, Duke could be just as strong next year with a talented incoming class.

Brandon Ingram is expected to be a top-five NBA draft pick next season, according to DraftExpress, while Luke Kennard and Derryck Thornton could make an early impact in the backcourt. With rising sophomore Grayson Allen expected to take a big step forward after limited playing time last year, the Blue Devils should once again be a top contender for a title.

North Carolina should come into the upcoming year as ACC favorites with a legitimate chance to win a title. However, there will be a lot of disappointment if the group can't find a way to beat its biggest rival.

The players should be focused on a title, but don't be surprised to see plenty of fans worry about what Duke is doing throughout the 2015-16 season.

Follow Rob Goldberg on Twitter for the latest breaking news and analysis.   

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