TUF 21 Finale: B/R Main Card Staff Predictions
I don't know if you have heard, but UFC 189 isn't the only UFC event this weekend.
On Sunday, the UFC will host a second event in two days at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. Headlined by welterweight contenders Jake Ellenberger and Stephen Thompson, The Ultimate Fighter 21 finale will bring an end to the latest season of the UFC reality show, which featured rival gyms American Top Team and Blackzilians.
The UFC switched up the format for this TUF season, but it didn't seem to rekindle a ton of interest in the series, which has steadily declined in relevance over recent years.
While this event won't receive much attention, seeing as it immediately follows one of the biggest MMA events in 2015, we're still here to give you our predictions. Riley Kontek, Scott Harris, Craig Amos, James MacDonald and Sean Smith are all here as usual.
2015 Staff Records
1 of 7
Not much has changed.
Kontek and MacDonald are still battling it out for the top spot. Amos and Harris are, well, not.
Then there is me, lying low in the middle of the pack until an opportunity to make a big move pops up.
| Riley Kontek | 69-37 |
| James MacDonald | 69-37 |
| Sean Smith | 65-41 |
| Craig Amos | 57-49 |
| Scott Harris | 57-49 |
Maximo Blanco vs. Mike De La Torre
2 of 7
Riley Kontek
It's hard to make a choice here, but Mike De La Torre has surpassed expectations in the UFC. Add in that he is training with the MMA Lab and that Blanco tends to brawl more than he should, and the American will be victorious.
De La Torre, Unanimous decision
Scott Harris
Blanco is popular because of his go-for-broke style. It's not super successful against top guys, though. Then again, Mike De La Torre is not a top guy. Expect a slugfest that breaks for Blanco.
Blanco, TKO, Rd. 2
Craig Amos
Blanco has posted checkered results since joining the UFC ranks, but he's posted back-to-back wins coming into this one. I can't decide whether wins over Andy Ogle and Daniel Hooker mean much, but Hooker did look good in his last fight. Anyway, Blanco is the pick. It's a close call, but he has more experience, and that should help him prevail in what looks like an evenly matched contest.
Blanco, Unanimous decision
James MacDonald
This is a tough fight to call. Neither man is likely to reach the division’s summit, but it should be a close contest at the very least. Blanco has faced stiffer competition and has the edge in experience, so that should see him get past De La Torre.
De La Torre, Unanimous decision
Sean Smith
Flip a coin. Both guys are too inconsistent to count on. I'll break the tie by picking Blanco, though. The Venezuelan has more UFC experience and appears to be a bit more well-rounded than De La Torre is.
Blanco, Unanimous decision
Angela Magana vs. Michelle Waterson
3 of 7
Riley Kontek
Michelle Waterson is in the driver's seat to be a star because of her fun style and looks. She also gets what people will call a "gimme" fight against Angela Magana to get her in the fast lane. Magana doesn't have a lot to offer at this point, as seen in her bout with Tecia Torres.
Waterson, Unanimous decision
Craig Amos
Magana has lost her last three fights (four if you count the loss on The Ultimate Fighter). Waterson is not the answer for stopping the bleeding. The former Invicta atomweight champion is moving up in weight, but she's talented enough that that should not be too much of a problem. At least not against Magana.
Waterson, Submission, Rd. 2
James MacDonald
Waterson is talented and marketable. However, I worry that she’s a little undersized at strawweight. Fortunately, she is facing a limited fighter in Magana. Waterson’s more complete game should make up for any physical disadvantages.
Waterson, Unanimous decision
Scott Harris
Please, Michelle Waterson. Free us from these Angela Magana restraints. Send this person and her non-UFC-level skill set out of the camera's eye. I really think you will, given that you might be the best strawweight on the planet. Good luck in your UFC debut, signed, Scott.
Waterson, Submission, Rd. 1
Sean Smith
After losing her Invicta FC atomweight title to Herica Tiburcio, Waterson decided to make the move to 115 pounds and joined the UFC roster. Size may be a problem for The Karate Hottie, but skill shouldn't be, especially against non-contenders like Magana. Waterson should have an advantage no matter where this fight goes, but I see her finishing the bout on the ground.
Waterson, Submission, Rd. 2
Jorge Masvidal vs. Cezar Ferreira
4 of 7
Riley Kontek
Ferreira was a monster at 185 pounds, and now he's going for 170? I foresee issues with his already questionable cardio. Not only that, but he is just not on the level of Jorge Masvidal. He's too easy to hit on the chin, and Masvidal is a head hunter.
Masvidal, KO, Rd. 1
Scott Harris
The only reason Masvidal lost to Al Iaquinta this spring was because he took his foot off the pedal. He won't be too cool to care this time around. He'll get to Mutante early and make sure he gets the W.
Masvidal, TKO, Rd. 2
Craig Amos
Ferreira got off to a hot start in his UFC career, but he's looked ordinary over his last three outings. Masvidal is far too good to lose to an ordinary, albeit imposing opponent. He'll get back into the win column, earning a stoppage for good measure.
Masvidal, TKO, Rd. 3
James MacDonald
Masvidal is clearly going to be the much smaller man here. However, he has far more tools at his disposal than Ferreira does. Masvidal will capitalize on his foe’s suspect cardio and secure the win with his superior all-around game.
Masvidal, Unanimous decision
Sean Smith
I hesitate to go all-in on Masvidal because he'll be so undersized in this matchup. However, if he's able to prevent Ferreira from getting his hands on him, Masvidal should shine in his welterweight return. It has been a while since Masvidal has recorded a knockout, but maybe he'll regain some power by moving back up to 170 pounds, and Ferreira's chin has become questionable following two knockout losses in his past three outings.
Masvidal, TKO, Rd. 1
Michael Graves vs. Vicente Luque
5 of 7
Riley Kontek
All indications tell me that Vicente Luque is the guy to go with here, but I was touting Mike Graves before the season began. Like Captain Smith on the Titanic, I too will go down with the ship if it comes to it. Graves is an exciting prospect who is well-rounded, rugged and talented. It will be close, but I will give Graves the slight edge.
Graves, Unanimous decision
Scott Harris
Wait, this is on the main card? I'm not mad. It's just amazing. American Top Team's Graves pulled out a fun victory when he came from behind against Jason Jackson. That was nice. Vicente Luque tapped Nathan Coy and came up just short against finalist Hayder Hassan. That was cool. I'll go with Graves. I like his wrestling.
Graves, Unanimous decision
Craig Amos
Both Graves and Luque had some ups and downs during their time on The Ultimate Fighter. Their inconsistency and limited professional experience make this a tough call, but Graves is the pick. He'll control the action en route to a decision victory.
Graves, Unanimous decision
James MacDonald
This has the potential to be an excellent fight. Luque was one of the more impressive fighters on the show, and was most people’s pick to represent the Blackzilians against Hassan. Graves is similarly talented, but his mentality remains questionable. For that reason, Luque should come out on top in a closely contested fight.
Luque, Unanimous decision
Sean Smith
I always have a tough time predicting these bouts between TUF contestants making their UFC debuts. The competitors are difficult to compare because they haven't been tested by top competition, and you never know how they'll respond under the spotlight. My gut is telling me to go with Luque in this one, but it could come down to the judges in a close decision.
Luque, Unanimous decision
Kamaru Usman vs. Hayder Hassan
6 of 7
Riley Kontek
These two were bound to meet given they were the biggest standouts on this season of TUF. I just think that Usman's style, although not the most exciting, is too good to write off. Hassan can hit a home run shot at any time, but Usman stifles guys and doesn't let them breathe.
Usman, Unanimous decision
Scott Harris
Usman was one of the few (and maybe the only) cast member who had big-time buzz before the show. He's incredibly powerful, and his wrestling is hard to stop, as viewers saw. No disrespect to Hassan, but he'll get smothered.
Usman, Unanimous decision
Craig Amos
Both guys had a couple of decision wins on The Ultimate Fighter but have been efficient finishers during their pro careers. While a stoppage could come from either side, Usman will dictate the tempo and, finish or not, win the fight.
Usman, Unanimous decision
James MacDonald
At the risk of flirting with cliche, Usman is an explosive fighter. He has excellent wrestling and decent striking. Hassan was the standout of the season, though, winning all three of his fights. He fights a bit like Hector Lombard: very flat-footed and with a ton of power on his strikes. However, he throws so much into his shots that he frequently finds himself off balance, and Usman has the wrestling to take advantage of that.
Usman, Unanimous decision
Sean Smith
Undefeated on TUF 21, Usman and Hassan were the top representatives from their gyms and will lock horns in the final bout of the season. It's a competitive matchup, but Usman is the more well-rounded competitor and is more capable of ending the bout should the pair get into a brawl.
Usman, KO, Rd. 2
Jake Ellenberger vs. Stephen Thompson
7 of 7
Riley Kontek
Jake Ellenberger did win his last fight, but he has looked to have lost a step in his last few bouts. The opposite can be said about Thompson, who has looked vastly improved. He has been developing his wrestling with some great partners, which could allow him to thwart Ellenberger's shots and light him up. Still, this is a big step up, and I can't go against the man with high-level experience.
Ellenberger, Unanimous decision
Scott Harris
Does Ellenberger have anything left in the tank? He doesn't until he does, which is my thinking. That chin has taken some licks, and it will take a few more against a striker nonpareil in Wonderboy.
Thompson, TKO, Rd. 2
Craig Amos
Ellenberger's win over Josh Koscheck is not nearly enough to make up for the three poor performances that preceded it. He does have an ideal style to take Thompson out of his comfort zone, but he simply is at the level necessary to beat a guy like Thompson, who is beginning to complement is otherworldly striking with a full set of MMA skills.
Thompson, KO, Rd. 3
James MacDonald
It’s probably fair to say that Ellenberger has already peaked in his MMA career. He just doesn’t look like the fighter we saw up until 2012. He managed to beat a worn-out Josh Koscheck, but I’m not convinced he can take out Thompson. Wonderboy has some holes in his overall game, but he continues to improve and his striking remains lethal. I'm sticking my neck out and giving the nod to Thompson in this one.
Thompson, TKO, Rd. 2
Sean Smith
Ellenberger bounced back in his last trip to the Octagon against Koscheck, but he looked terrible in recent outings before then. Thompson's defensive wrestling has been coming along, and he may not even need to use it that much. I look for him to take a page out of Rory MacDonald's book by jabbing away at Ellenberger.
Thompson, Unanimous decision
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