UFC 189: McGregor vs. Mendes Main Card B/R Staff Predictions
Conor McGregor vs. Chad Mendes for the interim featherweight title might not be the UFC 189 main event we had hoped for, but Saturday’s card remains must-see television despite the withdrawal of featherweight champion Jose Aldo. After all, this is the McGregor show, and people will tune in to see the Irishman irrespective of his opponent.
In addition to the main event, we can look forward to a rematch between Robbie Lawler and Rory MacDonald for the UFC welterweight title, Dennis Bermudez vs. Jeremy Stephens, Brandon Thatch vs. Gunnar Nelson and Brad Pickett vs. Thomas Almeida. The event is about as stacked as a modern UFC card is likely to be.
As ever, Bleacher Report MMA’s prediction team is here to guide you through Saturday night’s main card. Read on for the views of Scott Harris, Riley Kontek, Sean Smith, Craig Amos and yours truly, James MacDonald.
2015 Staff Records
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It’s tight at the top of the staff leaderboard. Yours truly is tied with Riley Kontek for first place. Despite my best efforts, I can’t seem to shake last year’s champion.
Sean Smith is out on his own in third place, but he continues to put pressure on the leaders. Scott Harris and Craig Amos are tied for fourth. These two continue to tear chunks out of each other every week, with both men desperate to avoid the wooden spoon.
Here are the current standings:
James MacDonald: 69-37-0
Riley Kontek: 69-37-0
Sean Smith: 65-41-0
Scott Harris: 57-49-0
Craig Amos: 57-49-0
Brad Pickett vs. Thomas Almeida
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Kontek
A couple of years ago, Brad Pickett would have taken this fight without a problem. He now draws a top prospect buzz saw who is aggressive and consciousness-stealing. Almeida will get his keynote win Saturday night at the expense of a longtime Zuffa contender.
Almeida, TKO, Rd. 2
Harris
If you did not know about Thomas Almeida before, you will know about him this Saturday night. The heavy-hitting, do-it-all Chute Boxe prodigy is coming for Brad Pickett's soul, and he will have it.
Almeida, TKO, Rd. 1
Smith
Pickett did not have much success in the 125-pound division, but at 36 years old, there’s a chance that has more to do with him beginning to decline than the weight cut. Meanwhile, only 23 years old, Almeida looked like a future contender in a knockout win over Yves Jabouin the last time he stepped into the Octagon. The Brazilian will have a tough time stopping Pickett, who hasn’t been knocked out since 2005, but he will remain undefeated.
Almeida, Unanimous decision
Amos
Pickett has slid from the apex of his career, while Almeida is just beginning to ascend to his. The question is, has the young Brazilian already surpassed the declining Brit? The answer is a resounding "Yes!" of Diego Sanchez proportions.
Almeida, TKO, Rd. 2
MacDonald
Pickett has lost a little something over the last couple of years, so this is a tough test for him. Almeida has all sorts of potential, and I expect him to put that potential fully on display against Pickett on Saturday.
Almeida, Unanimous decision
Gunnar Nelson vs. Brandon Thatch
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Kontek
Boy, did Gunnar Nelson get a bad matchup in late replacement Brandon Thatch. Against John Hathaway, he was likely the clear pick. Here? He is undersized against a better striker who will thwart his takedowns. Expect another bump in the road for the Icelandic sensation.
Thatch, TKO, Rd. 2
Harris
Ahhhh, yes. The old striker vs. grappler matchup. Rick Story showed that Nelson can be bullied, and Brandon Thatch is a pretty good bully. Nelson is a brilliant grappler but has a hard time getting the motor started sometimes. It must be those harsh Icelandic winters. Thatch won't give him a chance to turn it over.
Thatch, TKO, Rd. 2
Smith
Although Nelson and Thatch are both coming off losses, they are two of the brightest up-and-coming stars in the welterweight division. Thatch is one of the most dangerous strikers at 170 pounds and isn’t bad on the ground either, but he did have a weakness exposed against Benson Henderson, a smaller but better grappler. Elite on the ground, Nelson should avoid standing with Thatch and win this on the canvas.
Nelson, Submission, Rd. 3
Amos
Thatch is a fast starter. Nelson is a slow starter. One of two things will happen: Thatch will overwhelm Nelson early and gain an edge, or he'll force Nelson to match his aggression and wind up on his back. This is just one tough call out of several on this stacked and competitive main card.
Thatch, TKO, Rd. 2
MacDonald
This is a rough fight for Nelson. He’s going to be at a size and strength disadvantage against an opponent with a formidable striking game. Nelson’s best bet is to get the fight to the floor. If he can manage it, the win is his. I’m just not sure he can get Thatch down before he gets knocked out.
Thatch, TKO, Rd. 2
Dennis Bermudez vs. Jeremy Stephens
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Kontek
I am so torn on this fight. After watching Jeremy Stephens beat up a wrestler in Darren Elkins in person, I have confidence he can employ the same strategy against Dennis Bermudez. The difference? Bermudez has improved his hands big time. That said, my loyalty as a Stephens fan will not allow me to pick against him here.
Stephens, Unanimous decision
Harris
Yes, Bermudez got stopped against Ricardo Lamas. No, Stephens won't have that opportunity. Bermudez is a battering ram at 145 pounds and is going to ram the hard-hitting Stephens into a little place I like to call the canvas.
Bermudez, Unanimous decision
Smith
This is a tough one to call between two really good 145-pounders who have run into tough competition recently. With his unreal power for this division, I wouldn’t be shocked if Stephens ends it early. However, Bermudez has a big advantage on the ground and will survive long enough to score a takedown or two that he’ll need to score a submission win.
Bermudez, Submission, Rd. 2
Amos
Even when he looks good, Bermudez tends to absorb some punishment, which doesn't bode well against a hard hitter like Stephens. But Bermudez is the more talented fighter on the whole, and a solid game plan and adequate effort will be enough for him to get back into the win column.
Bermudez, Unanimous decision
MacDonald
This should be a fun fight. Bermudez has lost a little momentum, but he’s still on course for the top of the division. Stephens is dangerous, but he remains somewhat limited. So, I’m going with the more well-rounded Bermudez.
Bermudez, Unanimous decision
Robbie Lawler (c) vs. Rory MacDonald
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Kontek
I have said for the last year or more that Rory MacDonald is the uncrowned champion at 170 pounds, and I still mean it. There is no doubt Lawler has looked unbelievable lately, and we will remember his unlikely run for a long time. I know he has a previous victory over MacDonald, but this is MacDonald's time to take the torch.
MacDonald, Unanimous decision
Harris
If Lawler turns on the jets and finds MacDonald's chin, it'll be an "and still" situation Saturday night. But I'm thinking the fightbot in the challenger's corner ratchets up his offense just enough to outpoint Lawler while steering clear of the big shot. Lawler is well-rounded, but MacDonald is more so. All hail the Red King.
MacDonald, Unanimous decision
Smith
Less than two years ago, Lawler and MacDonald battled to a split decision. So, there’s reason to believe this will be another competitive bout. It is scary for other welterweights, but being only 25 years old, MacDonald is still improving. The Canadian took Lawler down four times in their last meeting, so he can definitely sway the scorecards in the other direction if he’s able to do a little more with those takedowns this time around.
MacDonald, Unanimous decision
Amos
Lawler already owns a win over MacDonald, but the Canadian continues to develop with each passing fight, so this is a whole new ballgame. On Saturday, he will show that he has eclipsed the champion and fulfill the destiny of supplanting former welterweight kingpin and friend Georges St-Pierre.
MacDonald, Submission, Rd. 4
MacDonald
Despite Lawler’s obvious improvements, I still haven’t quite bought into the hype. His first fight with MacDonald was close, and his performance took everyone by surprise. There will be no surprises this time around. My namesake boasts a more complete game and will leave with the belt on Saturday night.
MacDonald, Unanimous decision
Conor McGregor vs. Chad Mendes
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Kontek
I feel like a lot of people are going with McGregor here, but he just simply has not been tested by a wrestler, especially one of this caliber. Mendes is also not bad on the feet, but he needs to beat McGregor up early, or the Irishman will get comfortable and pick at him from a distance.
Mendes, TKO, Rd. 3
Harris
McGregor is a false favorite here. Mendes, with his big takedowns, his excellent offensive wrestling and his much-improved and dangerous stand-up, really should be the one ahead with the oddsmakers. But odds aren't really about fairness, are they? In any case, with all that said, I'm drinking the Kool-Aid and going with McGregor to pull the "upset." He has the striking and the gas tank to consistently keep Mendes on the outside. I believe, man. I believe.
McGregor, TKO, Rd. 2
Smith
The UFC is risking a lot by having McGregor take on Mendes rather than having the Irishman wait on Jose Aldo to heal up. Ranked No. 1 among 145-pound contenders, Mendes isn’t going to simply be another steppingstone on McGregor’s path to the featherweight belt. On the contrary, Mendes will utilize his wrestling to exploit a potential chink in McGregor’s armor and spoil the party.
Mendes, Unanimous decision
Amos
So much has been made of the "what happens if Mendes wins" storyline that I've nearly forgotten he still has to beat McGregor. That's no simple task, lest you have forgotten. The takedown is key for Mendes, but McGregor will put so much of his focus into stopping the shot that Mendes will have to work to get the action to the mat. It won't happen frequently enough, and McGregor will claim the interim title and set up an even bigger showdown with Jose Aldo somewhere down the line.
McGregor, TKO, Rd. 3
MacDonald
Perhaps I’m buying into the hype, but McGregor has an uncanny ability to make you believe in him. I fully expect Mendes to get McGregor to the floor on more than one occasion, but I’m not sure his ground game has an awful lot of depth. The Irishman will give him problems on the floor and even bigger problems in the striking exchanges. So, I have to go with my gut and say McGregor will catch Mendes on the feet at some point and finish him on the ground.
McGregor, TKO, Rd. 3
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