Bayern Munich's Douglas Costa: Arjen Robben's Successor?
Meet Douglas Costa, the big-money signing who could be Bayern Munich's long-term successor to Arjen Robben.
Who Is Costa?
Stepping up to the ball, Costa laced his spot-kick into the roof of the net, putting Brazil 3-2 up in a penalty shootout against Ghana.
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Lacking Costa's composure, Souza Dias, Maicon Marques and Alex Teixeira choked under pressure.
Watching on helplessly, Costa's hopes of winning the 2009 FIFA Under-20 World Cup faded away.
Costa's statistics were below par (one goal, one assist) compared to the leading midfield/forward prospects of the tournament:
- Dominic Adiyiah (Ghana: eight goals, no assists).
- Vladimir Koman (Hungary: five goals, three assists).
- Aaron Niguez (Spain: four goals, two assists).
- Diego Alonso Estrada (Costa Rica: one goal, five assists).
- Jose Salomon Rondon (Venezuela: four goals, one assist).
Despite sitting out three games and averaging 55.3 minutes per game, Costa was a captivating talent.
Consequently, he was identified as an outstanding player by the FIFA technical study group: "Quick with the ball, good [dribbler and] skilful."
Looking like a star but not being ruthless in the final third is a recurring narrative.
"I had quite a tumultuous start to my career," Costa said, per FIFA's website. "I used to have two really good games but then my form would dip. I don't think people really understood me and I ended up dropping to the bench."
It may have been the red flag that caused Manchester United to hesitate in pulling the trigger to sign him from Gremio.
"Manchester United sent a fax to my club, Gremio, asking them to release me to their training ground so they could see my skills," Costa said, per Jonathan Wilson at the Guardian. "I like the style of Manchester United and if I could have chosen I would have preferred to go there, but they weren't ready."
Gremio miscalculated Manchester United's interest in Costa by attempting to inflate his transfer stock even when the Premier League club initially demanded a trial.
Manchester United called Gremio's bluff, per Mark Ogden at the Telegraph:
"[Gremio] have thus placed a €23.2 million/£20 million price tag on Costa ... Manchester United have no intention of meeting the asking price and a figure in the region of €8.1 million/£7 million, with incentives to escalate the fee should Costa succeed at Old Trafford, has been their opening offer to the Porto Alegre-based club.
... Manchester United have been monitoring Costa for more than six months after being alerted to his potential by the club's Brazil-based scout John Calvert Toulmin
... A move to take Costa on trial was rejected by Gremio [as the Brazilian club] believe that Real Madrid's underlying interest in the player will put pressure on Manchester United to raise their bid.
"
Shakhtar Donetsk moved into pole position and signed Costa for €6 million/£5.4 million in 2010.
It wasn't the first time that Gremio were willing to do business with a club in a second-tier league rather than relinquish an asset the instant a top club in a major league came calling.
Rafael Scheidt | Gremio → Celtic: €7.3 million/£4.8 million (1999; 23 years old).
Carlos Eduardo Marques | Gremio → Hoffenheim [1]: €7 million/£4.7 million (2007; 20 years old).
Douglas Costa | Gremio → Shakhtar Donetsk: €6 million/£5.4 million (2010; 19 years old).
Anderson | Gremio → Porto: €5 million/£3.5 million (2005; 16 years old).
Transfer fees adjusted for inflation, per Oanda.
[1] In the 2. Bundesliga at the time.
Amid the Russian military intervention in Ukraine, Costa, Dentinho, Facundo Ferreyra, Fred, Ismaily and Teixeira opted against returning to Shakhtar Donetsk.
On the surface, it appeared that the six foreigners were worried about their safety.
However, Costa's compatriot Luiz Adriano felt secure.
"I haven't heard of any player considering leaving [Shakhtar Donetsk]," Adriano said, per Rafael Saakov at the BBC. "I have a contract [and] I like it here."
It raised a question: How valid were the concerns of the mutinous six?
Shakhtar Donetsk manager Mircea Lucescu accused agent Kia Joorabchian of attempting to manufacture a transfer saga from the socio-political climate in Ukraine, per Canal+ (h/t the Associated Press and Omnisport via SBS):
"[Joorabchian] is taking advantage of the situation. This is a kidnapping.
The players are young and he convinced them [to follow him]. He [told] them not to return [to Shakhtar Donetsk], explaining that they would soon be [released from their contracts] and that [they] could sign with another club.
It is a pure scandal. These are important players for me. It all happened after the game against Lyon at [around] 2 a.m. at our hotel. I could not do anything.
"
Shakhtar Donetsk defused the tense stand-off with Joorabchian, but this is a snapshot into Costa's melodramatic tenure.
It appears Costa never quite got over what he may have perceived as his so-near-and-yet-so-far transfer to Manchester United not coming to fruition.
He actively campaigned for Shakhtar Donetsk to sell him.
"I'm grateful to Shakhtar Donetsk for all they have given me and, if I do stay, I will continue to give 100 per cent, but I think I am now ready for a big club," Costa said, per Gazzetta dello Sport (h/t Ben Gladwell at ESPN FC). "If I were to receive an offer [from AC Milan], I'd take it straight away."
Same message, different club.
"I like Paris Saint-Germain a lot," Costa said, per Telefoot (h/t David Wright at the Daily Express). "They have become an enormous club and it would be a pleasure to wear [their] shirt."
Costa developed a habit of giving out backhanded compliments.
He was grateful for an introduction to European football from Lucescu yet wanted to be coached by Chelsea manager Jose Mourinho, even though no transfer had been ratified.
"I learned a lot here with Lucescu," Costa said, per Globoesporte (h/t Elliott Bretland at the Daily Mail). "But I also know that with Mourinho at Chelsea, my progress would be even greater."
Providing ammunition to the media in producing articles detailing a hypothetical transfer away from Shakhtar Donetsk illustrates a clear picture of Costa's desperation to leave.
Lucescu admitted Costa's mindset was counter-productive to Shakhtar Donetsk, per Obozrevatel (h/t From-UA via Michael Yokhin at ESPN FC):
"Costa is not thinking about the Ukrainian Premier League anymore. It is probably time for him to leave Shakhtar Donetsk, because he is not concentrating and makes a lot of mistakes. I can understand [how he thinks]. His qualities are indisputable—good dribbling, good speed, good shot, [so] it is natural that he wants to play at a higher level [than the Ukrainian Premier League].
"
Costa's visualisation became a reality when Bayern Munich provided a getaway route.
Transfer Details
Shakhtar Donetsk disclosed that Bayern Munich paid €30 million/£21.3 million to sign Costa.
Javi Martinez | Athletic Bilbao → Bayern Munich: €40 million/£31.7 million (2012; 23 years old).
Douglas Costa | Shakhtar Donetsk → Bayern Munich: €30 million/£21.3 million (2015; 24 years old).
Medhi Benatia | Roma → Bayern Munich: €28 million/£22.3 million (2014; 27 years old).
Arjen Robben | Real Madrid → Bayern Munich: €25 million/£22 million (2009; 25 years old).
Thiago Alcantara | Barcelona → Bayern Munich: €25 million/£21.6 million (2013; 22 years old).
Franck Ribery | Marseille → Bayern Munich: €25 million/£16.9 million (2007; 24 years old).
Transfer fees adjusted for inflation, per Oanda.
In terms of Bayern Munich buying footballers outside the Bundesliga, Costa is their second-most expensive acquisition in euros.
The elephant in the room is Benatia, Robben, Thiago and Ribery were signed from established European leagues—Costa wasn't.
Sixth in the UEFA's coefficient rankings, the Ukrainian Premier League is on the rise, but you can't take that to the bank.
Bayern Munich spent €11.8 million/£9.5 million on Xherdan Shaqiri in 2012, at the time a 20-year-old Basel wunderkind tearing apart defences in the Swiss Super League.
That figure is ideally what Bayern Munich should have signed Costa for.
Why were Shakhtar Donetsk in such a strong negotiating position when Bayern Munich held talks to buy Costa?
Shakhtar Donetsk is owned by Rinat Akhmetov, who is worth around €6.4 billion/£4.7 billion mainly due to his coal, iron ore and steel empire, per Forbes.
Making money is second nature to Akhmetov.
He dictates proceedings allowing him to secure outlandish transfer fees heavily favouring Shakhtar Donetsk.
Fernandinho | Shakhtar Donetsk → Manchester City: €35.3 million/£30 million (2013; 28 years old).
Willian | Shakhtar Donetsk → Anzhi Makhachkala: €35 million/£30.3 million (2013; 24 years old).
Douglas Costa | Shakhtar Donetsk → Bayern Munich: €30 million/£21.3 million (2015; 24 years old).
Henrikh Mkhitaryan | Shakhtar Donetsk → Borussia Dortmund: €27.5 million/£23.7 million (2013; 24 years old).
Dmytro Chygrynskiy | Shakhtar Donetsk → Barcelona: €25 million/£21.3 million (2009; 22 years old).
Transfer fees adjusted for inflation, per Oanda.
According to Costa, Shakhtar Donetsk negotiate from his inflated release clause.
"Willian had all that trouble [trying to leave] and his release clause was €35 million/£30 million. [My release clause is] around €50 million/£35.6 million [so] you can imagine that it won't be any easier [for me]," Costa said, per Marcus Alves at FourFourTwo. "I've also had talks with other sides like AC Milan and Monaco ... but none of them have reached the price asked by Shakhtar Donetsk."
A glass half-full perspective is that Bayern Munich slashed €20 million/£14 million off Costa's starting price.
The large majority of Bayern Munich's valuation of Costa is based on potential ability.
This suggests Bayern Munich are projecting Costa to be a future superstar.
Scouting Costa
| Age | 24 / 1990 |
| Height | 5'7" / 1.70 m |
| Weight | 143 lb / 65 kg |
| Nationality | Brazilian |
On The Ball
Costa is a left-footer predominately utilised as a right attacking midfielder in a 4-2-3-1.
Drifting centrally as an inverted wide player, Costa at times functioned in a quasi-deep-lying forward role, as evident with his average positioning in Shakhtar Donetsk's 2-2 draw against Karpaty Lviv.
Possessing high-speed acceleration combined with outstanding technical ability, Costa excels when isolating opposing players in one-on-one situations.
He completed 14 dribbles in Shakhtar Donetsk's 0-0 draw against Dynamo Kyiv, per Wyscout.
He can be a one-man counter-attack, as demonstrated when he received the ball inside his own half and embarked on a long run.
Blitzing past Artem Baranovskyi and Oleksandr Noyok, Costa squared the ball to Teixeira in Shakhtar Donetsk's 2-0 win over Metalurh Donetsk.
Viewing extracts of early scouting reports on Costa, taking on players is generally always mentioned, per Wyscout:
"September 28, 2010: "[Costa] was a significant threat throughout, showing excellent acceleration to get past his opponents."
December 6, 2009: "A skilful and dynamic player, [Costa] adopted a wide attacking role on the right of midfield."
January 19, 2009: "[Costa] really took the game to the opponents and confronted them with some mazy runs."
"
Costa has continued to refine his dribbling, which may have been a substantial factor in Bayern Munich's investment.
Bayern Munich manager Pep Guardiola requires another winger who can strike fear into opposing defences, like Robben.
While Costa can adequately control the ball with his weaker foot (right), he is excessively one-footed when he shoots: 91.9 per cent of his shots in the UEFA Champions League since the 2010/11 season have been taken with his left foot.
Costa's shot selection needs to improve because his pot shots from outside the box are low-percentage choices.
Off The Ball
Reacting quickly when Shakhtar Donetsk lose possession, Costa's recovery speed puts him in situations where he can force turnovers.
He averaged 1.8 tackles and 1.1 interceptions per UEFA Champions League game last season.
His defensive numbers were noticeably more prolific than Robben's 0.6 tackles and 0.4 interceptions per UEFA Champions League game.
In a 0-0 draw against Bayern Munich, Costa sacrificed individual glory for the team, acting as a quasi right-back.
He played just in front of Darijo Srna in a rigid 4-4-2, quashing Ribery's impact.
Conclusion
When asked if Costa would replace Ribery, Bayern Munich sporting director Matthias Sammer expressed his disdain for the question.
"In reference to Ribery, who is injured now for a long time, I think it is very disrespectful [to ask that]," Sammer said, per Luke Sheehan at Goal. "Douglas Costa is not [Ribery's] replacement."
The context being speculation of Ribery going through a blue phase during rehabilitation.
Apparently the physically and psychologically demanding process "prompted him to think about putting an end to his" career, per L'Equipe (h/t Josep Coves at Sport).
Sammer is right: Costa isn't a replacement for Ribery.
Costa plays on the right side, so it would be surprising if he permanently switched to the left wing.
Rather, Costa could be insurance if Robben's body gives way again.
"I knew right away, there's something broken [with my body]," Robben said, per 11 Freunde (h/t Alec Fenn at Goal). "I only felt emptiness. For a moment I was dead [inside]. Completely destroyed."
It seems Costa is the heir apparent to Robben because both are dangerous inverted left-footed wingers on the right flank.
That is where the comparisons end.
Robben has no problems converting in the final third, scoring 17 goals and providing seven assists in 21 Bundesliga games for Bayern Munich last season.
However, there are issues when it comes to Costa making the final pass or finishing in front of goal.
Scoring 29 goals and totalling 30 assists in 141 Ukrainian Premier League games is unimpressive.
Is Costa worth €30 million/£21.3 million right now? No.
Signing Costa could simply go down to him having the X-factor, kind of like when then-Bayern Munich president Wilhelm Neudecker spotted a player he liked in 1973, per Paul Simpson and Uli Hesse's book Who Invented the Stepover?:
"Conny Torstensson had stood out for [Swedish champions Atvidaberg] because he scored twice in the second leg and because of his footwear. Neudecker, who was Bayern Munich's president [at the time], said: "I want the striker with the red boots," and the club soon signed him [for 580,000 Deutsche Mark].
"
In 1973, the world transfer fee record had yet to reach seven figures, so Torstensson was a hefty investment.
Scoring 10 goals in 21 European Cup games for Bayern Munich, Torstensson was nicknamed "Mr European Cup," per Steffen Potter at UEFA's website.
Yet Torstensson failed to find consistency in the Bundesliga because he was a squad player, as exhibited by his Kicker player rankings.
- 1976/77: 221.
- 1975/76: N/A (rating in theory placed him at 212).
- 1974/75: N/A (rating in theory placed him at 220).
- 1973/74: N/A (rating in theory placed him at 214).
Costa provided highlight reel moments for Shakhtar Donetsk and maybe Torstensson did the same in his red boots for Atvidaberg.
But Costa's €30 million/£21.3 million transfer fee, coupled with expectations to replace Robben, could have mixed results for Bayern Munich, a la Torstensson.
When not specified, statistics via WhoScored.
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