NASCAR Sprint Cup: Complete Preview, Prediction for the Coke Zero 400 at Daytona
This is where things start to get really interesting—the unofficial start for the so-called "Race to the Chase"—which may ultimately prove as exciting as the actual Chase for the Sprint Cup itself.
With 16 races down, 10 more races to make the Chase and 20 races in total remaining in the season, things are starting to heat up, beginning with Sunday’s Coke Zero 400 at Daytona International Speedway.
Nearly a dozen drivers are still in pursuit of the elusive first win of the season that would all but guarantee that they make this year’s Chase.
When Kyle Busch won this past Sunday at Sonoma, he became the 11th different driver to win a race in 2015.
And as such, that means there are only five spots open to fill the 16-driver Chase field following the early September final Chase qualifying race at Richmond.
That’s why it’s so important for drivers like Jeff Gordon, Jamie McMurray, Kasey Kahne, Tony Stewart, Clint Bowyer, Danica Patrick, Greg Biffle, Ryan Newman, Paul Menard, A.J. Allmendinger, Aric Almirola and a few others to reach Victory Lane.
No, scratch that. It’s not just important, it's imperative—if not urgent—for the winless drivers to win.
And as soon as possible!
Sunday night’s race at Daytona is somewhat of a wild-card race. With it being one of two restrictor-plate tracks on the schedule, anything is possible—not to mention the chance of one, two or more big wrecks through the course of the 160-lap event.
Because so many drivers have already won a race this year, they don’t necessarily have to give it their all Sunday. They can afford to settle for a top-10 or even a top-15 finish, knowing they’re already in the Chase.
But those without a win will have to take chances they normally don’t take. They will forget they have teammates if necessary and will do everything possible to reach the checkered flag first.
Yep, Sunday night is going to be interesting. And we’ll have nine more races just like it following suit.
By the Numbers: Daytona International Speedway
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Coke Zero 400
Place: Daytona International Speedway
Date: Sunday, July 5
Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
TV: NBC Sports, 7 p.m. ET
Radio: Motor Racing Network, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio
Distance: 160 laps, 400 miles (2.5-mile oval)
Defending winner: Aric Almirola
Youngest winner: Trevor Bayne on February 20, 2011 (20 years, 0 months, 1 day)
Oldest winner: Bobby Allison on February 14, 1988 (50 years, 2 months, 11 days)
Youngest pole winner: Austin Dillon on February 23, 2014 (23 years, 9 months, 27 days)
Oldest pole winner: Mark Martin on July 2, 2011 (52 years, 5 months, 23 days)
Most wins: Richard Petty (10)
Most poles: Cale Yarborough (12)
Most race starts at Daytona: Richard Petty (74)
Most laps led: 1,286 (Dale Earnhardt Sr.)
Best average start (active driver): Jimmie Johnson (9.926)
Best average finish (active driver): Dale Earnhardt Jr. (13.065)
Track Notes
- Total number of races at Daytona to date: 136
- Total number of different pole winners in Daytona history: 58
- Races won from pole: 25
- Race record: Cale Yarborough, 183.295 mph (02/19/1970)
- Qualifying record: Bill Elliott, 210.364 mph (02/15/1987)
- Number of race winners at Daytona: 58
- Most top fives: Richard Petty (28)
- Most top 10s: Richard Petty (37)
Statistical information provided by NASCAR Media Relations.
Key Storylines
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Logano Redux: Joey Logano won the season-opening Daytona 500. Can he come back on Sunday night to make it two wins in a row at Daytona—not to mention make it just his second win of the season, as well? And what about teammate Brad Keselowski, who also has just one win thus far this season?
Almirola Deja Vu: Aric Almirola qualified for the Chase last season by winning at Daytona in a rain-shortened event. But even so, he was in the right place at the right time when the skies opened, and it earned him his first trip to the Chase. He’s in almost the same position this year: still needing a win to make the Chase. Will it be deja vu again for Almirola and Richard Petty Motorsports?
Tony, Tony, Tony: Well, so much for Tony Stewart getting hot in June, as has been the case typically throughout his career. Now, as we enter July, can the three-time champ finally shake off the worst season start of his career and not only win a race, but make the Chase as a bonus?
Can Kyle Do It: Now that he’s earned the one win he needed to at least qualify for the Chase, Kyle Busch needs to somehow make it into the top 30 in the point standings by the end of the Richmond race to truly make the playoffs. He’s more than 170 points out of 30th place right now, but with 10 races to go, it's mathematically possible for him crack the list. Given his win at Sonoma this past Sunday, it would not be surprising if the younger Busch brother goes on to win another two or three races in the next 10, which would help his cause.
One More Time at Daytona: Jeff Gordon was en route to a decent top-10 finish in the season-opening Daytona 500. All he had to do was finish the last lap. Unfortunately, he got caught up in someone else’s wreck and paid a costly price. It’s almost like he’s never recovered from that since. But now that the Cup series is back at Daytona, he might finally turn his bad luck into good luck—particularly in his final race ever at Daytona.
Drivers to Watch
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Martin Truex Jr.: Truex is coming off his worst finish of the season, when he was accidentally—or intentionally, depending how you look at it—turned by David Ragan while battling for position at Sonoma this past Sunday. Will that be just a one-race setback, or will it impact Truex’s good fortune up to now?
Carl Edwards: Call it a gut feeling, but Edwards is someone to keep your eye on Sunday. His record at Daytona is fairly marginal, with zero wins, four top-five and eight top-10 finishes in 21 starts, but Edwards has failed to deliver on his preseason promise of 10 wins in 2015, capped off with the championship. With one win thus far, he better start moving if he hopes to live up to that prediction.
Danica Patrick: It may be living in the past, but it’s hard to forget that Danica Patrick won the pole position at Daytona for the 2013 Daytona 500. She also finished eighth in that race. Could she potentially do something similar this weekend? She’s certainly capable. And with Patrick still looking for a new contract and sponsor for 2016, a strong run Sunday could be just what she needs to put her over the top.
Kyle Busch: There’s just one reason why this race is so important to Kyle Busch: Daytona is where he suffered a broken right leg and fractured left foot in a spectacular crash in the season-opening Xfinity Series race in February. Even though he won Sunday at Sonoma, Busch will be looking to avenge February’s wreck.
Tony Stewart: While Smoke has never won the Daytona 500, the Coke Zero 400 has been one of his more successful events, with four wins. There would likely be no better place for Stewart to finally snap the terrible season of bad luck that he’s had to date and get into the Chase.
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Favorites
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Jeff Gordon: This is a sentimental pick. Gordon has meant so much to Daytona over the last 23 years, and yet he comes into his final start at the 2.5-mile superspeedway begging the track to look upon him with favor so he can finally earn that first win of 2015 and punch his ticket into the Chase.
Kevin Harvick: Harvick knows his way around Daytona, with two wins—including a Daytona 500 victory—seven top-five and 12 top-10 finishes in 28 career starts at the 2.5-mile superspeedway. Having held the Sprint Cup points lead for much of this season, Harvick could put yet another exclamation mark on his season with a win on Sunday.
Jimmie Johnson: While it looked like the six-time Sprint Cup champ might win Sunday at Sonoma, he came up short in the end. Johnson has nothing to prove at Daytona on Sunday. He’s comfortably in the Chase—if not the likely ultimate No. 1 seed. If he finishes in the top 15 and stays out of trouble, it will be a good day. Johnson has three wins, 10 top-five and 13 top-10 finishes in 27 career starts at Daytona. He doesn’t need to win, but if he has a chance to take the checkered flag, he’s going to go for it.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: How can you not include Junior among the favorites for Sunday’s race? With three wins (including two Daytona 500s), 12 top-five and 18 top-10 finishes in 31 career starts at Daytona, this is one of Earnhardt’s best-performing tracks. Plus, he has the best overall finish of all active drivers at Daytona (13.065). Don’t be surprised to see the No. 88 in Victory Lane late Sunday night.
Joey Logano: If he can do it once, Logano can most certainly do it again. The last time he raced at Daytona, he surprised a lot of people by winning the biggest race in NASCAR, this year’s season-opening Daytona 500. But with this race shorter (400 miles rather than 500) and in the summer as opposed to late winter, the conditions will be different for all teams. Still, if Logano is able to win, it probably won’t be as much of a surprise this time as when he won the 500 nearly five months ago.
Dark-Horse Pick: Tony Stewart
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The name “Tony Stewart” and the word “dark horse” are practically oxymorons. They don’t belong in the same sentence—normally.
But this has been anything but a normal season for Stewart, who has struggled unmercifully.
This is not the same Stewart who has won three championships and nearly 50 Sprint Cup races. But if he’s going to make the Chase for the Sprint Cup for the first time since 2012 (yes, it has been three seasons since Smoke last made the playoffs), he needs just a turnaround as abrupt as the spiral he’s been in since the season-opening Daytona 500.
It’s time for Stewart to step up and get his season—if not his career—back on track. Sunday at Daytona is the best place to do just that.
And the Winner Is: Jeff Gordon
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Sentimentality rules for a second week in a row.
I picked Gordon to win at Sonoma last Sunday because it was his original home track and in the same area where he spent the first 14 years of his life growing up.
Sonoma was the true start of Gordon’s farewell tour, as he’ll be making the final start of his career at every remaining track on the circuit.
Daytona has meant so much to him, just as he’s meant so much to Daytona, that if all the stars line up like they have so many times in the past there, Gordon should win this one easily.
And if he does, consider the bonus: He finally punches his ticket for the Chase for the Sprint Cup.
As Charlie Sheen would say, “Winning!”—and that’s what Gordon will do Sunday night.
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