Setting Realistic Expectations for Each San Francisco 49ers Rookie

What are realistic expectations for the San Francisco 49ers’ 2015 rookie class?

A pessimist might say this rookie class will be one of the NFL's worst. The first-round pick, former Oregon defensive lineman Arik Armstead, is a project. His rookie season might be a “developmental” season, if there is such a thing in the NFL.

And the second-round pick, Jaquiski Tartt, is a free safety trapped behind a free safety who happens to be a Pro Bowler—Eric Reid. The Niners’ top two draft picks may not play at all on defense in 2015.

But an optimist might say the talent of the Niners’ rookie class is undeniable, and these youngsters will force their way onto the field sooner than later.

Let’s take a look at the optimistic, pessimistic and realistic expectations for each 49ers rookie.

Arik Armstead, Defensive Lineman

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Floor: After missing OTAs and minicamp, Arik Armstead falls behind the veteran defensive lineman and never catches up. Armstead spends training camp learning the playbook and his various assignments but doesn’t master them. He fails to earn the trust of the coaching staff and spends almost all of his rookie season on the bench.

Ceiling: Despite missing the first portion of the offseason, Armstead goes on a tear during training camp and quickly proves he’s the most talented defensive lineman on the team. He wins the starting job at right defensive end by Week 1 and plays at a Pro Bowl-level by the end of the season.

Realistic Expectation: Armstead isn’t ready to contribute early in the season. He’s a 21-year-old developmental prospect who has been a full-time football player for just one year. He needs to get stronger, and he will as the season progresses. If one of the starting defensive lineman gets hurt late in the season, Armstead takes his place.

Jaquiski Tartt, Safety

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

Floor: Former Samford free safety Jaquiski Tartt doesn’t have the ability to cover tight ends or slot receivers, so he fails to win a role in the 49ers’ sub-packages. He spends his rookie season on the bench backing up Pro Bowl free safety Eric Reid and covering punts and kickoffs for special teams.

Ceiling: Tartt does have the ability to cover and becomes the key member of the 49ers’ “Big Dime” package—three cornerbacks and three safeties.

Realistic Expectation: During OTAs and minicamp, Tartt seemed much more comfortable playing zone coverage as a free safety than playing man coverage as a strong safety. So he probably won’t play much in the 49ers’ sub packages. His best chance to see the field on defense is at free safety if Reid gets injured.

Eli Harold, Outside Linebacker

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

Floor: Eli Harold, a defensive end at the University of Virginia, struggles to transition to his new position—outside linebacker. So the Niners don’t use him in their base defense. They only use him as an edge-rusher in the sub-packages. But they don’t use him much because they have three edge-rushers who are better—Aldon Smith, Ahmad Brooks and Aaron Lynch.

Ceiling: Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks continue their decline from last season, and Aaron Lynch has a sophomore slump. They open the door for Harold, who establishes himself as the 49ers’ best pass-rusher by midseason and takes Smith’s job by the end of it.

Realistic Expectation: Harold is the 49ers’ most impressive rookie during the preseason. To create playing time for him, the Niners trade Brooks to a team desperate for an outside linebacker. But Harold never cracks the starting lineup as a rookie. He's the first edge-rusher off the bench.

Blake Bell, Tight End

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Floor: Former Oklahoma quarterback Blake Bell needs more time to develop as a blocker—he’s been a tight end for just one season. He falls to No. 4 on the tight end depth chart because the Niners’ decide they want their No. 3 tight end to be a blocking specialist for short-yardage situations.

Ceiling: During the preseason, Bell holds his own as a blocker, makes plays downfield and in the red zone as a receiver and beats out Vance McDonald for the No. 2 tight end job.

Realistic Expectation: Bell proves to be somewhat of a liability as a blocker, but the Niners give him the No. 2 tight end job anyway because he’s such a weapon in the passing game. Bell finishes the season with 25 catches.

Mike Davis, Running Back

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

Floor: Former South Carolina running back Mike Davis never passes the three veteran running backs on the roster—Carlos Hyde, Reggie Bush and Kendall Hunter. As the Niners’ No. 4 running back, Davis receives just a handful of carriers in 2015.

Ceiling: Injury-prone backups Bush and Hunter suffer injuries during the regular season, and Davis becomes the No. 2 running back by default, playing mostly on third downs as a blocker or a receiver.

Realistic Expectation: Running backs take shots every time they carry the ball. It’s reasonable to expect one of the 49ers’ top three running backs to suffer an injury and miss some time eventually. If that happens, Davis will get his chance to play. Don’t be surprised if he’s part of a three-man running back rotation by November.

DeAndre Smelter, Wide Receiver

David Goldman/Associated Press

Floor: Former Georgia Tech wide receiver DeAndre Smelter spends the first six weeks of the regular season on the non-football injury (NFI) list recovering from a torn ACL he suffered his senior year. Then he spends the final 11 weeks of the season on the injured reserve (IR) list as he continues to rehab his surgically repaired knee.

Ceiling: After six weeks on the NFI list, Smelter’s knee feels better than ever, and the Niners immediately promote him to the 53-man roster. He quickly becomes the No. 3 receiver behind Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith. The final eight games of the season, Smelter makes 20 catches.

Realistic Expectation: The coaches decide they don’t want to throw a rookie into live action without him having a full offseason to acclimate himself to the league. But they choose to let Smelter get his feet wet the final few games of the season.

Bradley Pinion, Punter

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

Floor: Bradley Pinion averages 41.1 yards per punt—his career average at Clemson University—and ranks dead last in the NFL in average punting distance. The 49ers regret trading All-Pro punter Andy Lee.

Ceiling: Pinion leads the league in average hang time and punts that pin the opposition inside their own 20-yard line—his two specialties in college—and the Niners do not regret trading All-Pro punter Andy Lee.

Realistic Expectation: Pinion’s high, accurate punts help the 49ers win the field-position battle, and his booming kickoffs result in touchback after touchback. Although Pinion might not be as good as Lee in 2015, Pinion will be terrific, and the 49ers won’t regret making him the starter.

Ian Silberman, Guard

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

Floor: Former Boston College offensive lineman Ian Silberman struggles during training camp and preseason and finds himself behind nine offensive linemen on the Niners’ depth chart. The Niners decide to keep no more than nine offensive linemen, so Silberman winds up on the Niners’ practice squad.

Ceiling: Second-year guards Marcus Martin and Brandon Thomas struggle during training camp and preseason, and they create an opportunity for Silberman at right guard. Silberman takes advantage of the opportunity, dominates during the preseason and wins the right guard competition.

Realistic Expectation: Silberman plays well during training camp and preseason and beats out fourth-year guard/center Joe Looney for the ninth and final spot on the offensive line depth chart. Silberman spends his rookie season as the third-string right guard behind Martin and Thomas.

Trent Brown, Tackle

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

Floor: Trent Brown, the talented 22-year-old tackle with 36-inch arms from the University of Florida, struggles so badly during the preseason that the Niners put him on waivers, no team claims him and he spends his rookie season on the practice squad.

Ceiling: Brown outplays veteran tackle Erik Pears during training camp and wins the right tackle job outright. Brown turns out to be a steamrolling run-blocker, a surprisingly nimble pass protector and an upgrade over the Niners’ former starting right tackle, Anthony Davis.

Realistic Expectation: Brown spends his rookie season as the backup right tackle and rarely plays. But he transforms his body in the weight room over the course of the season and wins the starting right tackle job in 2016.

Busta Anderson, Tight End

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Floor: Former South Carolina tight end Busta Anderson (6’4”, 244 lbs) bombs as a blocker during the preseason and fails to impress as a receiver. The 49ers cut him and don’t even offer him a spot on the practice squad.

Ceiling: Anderson explodes during the preseason like he did his first two seasons at South Carolina, when he averaged 20.8 yards per catch and caught eight touchdown passes. Anderson sneaks onto the 53-man roster as the No. 4 tight end, beating out fourth-year vet Derek Carrier.

Realistic Expectation: Anderson plays well enough during preseason that the Niners fear another team will claim him if they cut him. So the Niners give him a spot on the final roster.

All practice observations obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.

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