How Every NBA Lottery Pick Can Win 2015-16 Rookie of the Year
As each 2015 NBA lottery pick settles into his new destination, it's time to map out their ideal rookie campaigns.
There's a clear-cut top tier of Rookie of the Year contenders—only four or five players may actually vie for the prestigious award. But we're here to break down how each one could potentially join the race.
What kind of personnel and coaching decisions must the organization make to empower its newcomer? What improvements and surprising skill developments must the player demonstrate in order to reach his rookie ceiling? How can each of them fit into their squad's rotation?
Here's the blueprint for your favorite draftee to out-duel the competition.
14. Cameron Payne, Oklahoma City Thunder PG
1 of 14
The Oklahoma City Thunder have a strong, deep rotation that includes Russell Westbrook running the show at point guard. Murray State's Cameron Payne will likely serve as a backup floor general throughout his inaugural campaign, so his only chance he'd have to enter the ROY picture is if Westbrook suffered an unfortunate injury.
Instead of dealing with hypotheticals, let's talk about what OKC can do to maximize Payne's first season.
In order to find Payne's best-case scenario, coach Billy Donovan must give him a bunch of targets diving to the rim. Those receivers could come in the form of Mitch McGary cutting backdoor, Steve Adams rumbling to the rim as the roll man or Serge Ibaka sneaking to the cup from the weak side. Payne's keen quarterbacking instincts will produce dimes if Donovan keeps the machine's parts moving.
The Thunder must also play with pace, as Payne thrives during open-floor opportunities in transition. He loves to push the ball and give his teammates the rock with momentum toward the bucket. And lastly, Donovan should give Payne intermittent chances to jump in with the first team. Payne could do a bunch of damage setting the table for Kevin Durant or even making plays when Westbrook is an off-guard.
When afforded these kinds of opportunities, Payne could prove to be one of the best reserve guards in the league, averaging eight to 10 points and four-plus assists.
13. Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns SG
2 of 14
Gery Woelfel of the Racine Journal Times recently reported that the Phoenix Suns are close to inking a five-year, $70 million deal with point guard Brandon Knight. Shortly thereafter, ESPN.com's Marc Stein said the Suns would "seriously explore their Eric Bledsoe trade options" if the Knight deal becomes a reality.
For incoming shooting guard Devin Booker, the potential departure of Bledsoe would yield a more prominent role and a more productive rookie campaign.
His best avenue to jump into the ROY race is by lighting up foes from beyond the arc and then making them pay for overplaying his shooting.
Booker shot 41 percent from distance last year and is ready to serve as one of Phoenix's top perimeter assets. But he'll rise above expectations and join the top tier of rookies by attacking off the bounce.
We saw glimpses of him attacking closeouts and slashing at Kentucky. He'll have more room to do so in Phoenix, and he also has the capability to handle the ball in pick-and-rolls. Booker will have to share minutes with the likes of Gerald Green and Archie Goodwin, but a surprisingly versatile skill set could net him in excess of eight to 10 points per contest.
12. Trey Lyles, Utah Jazz PF
3 of 14
With Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors firmly entrenched in the Utah Jazz frontcourt, Trey Lyles won't have a starring role.
However, he may get more minutes and touches than most realize because he represents exactly what Quin Snyder needs to complement his bigs. The Jazz were lacking a 4- or 5-man who could face up and drive from the perimeter, as well as shoot beyond 15 feet. Neither Gobert nor Favors could do that.
When one of the star posts is resting, Lyles can come in and dynamically play off the other. Aaron Falk of the Salt Lake Tribune explained the Kentucky product's potential value:
"...It's Lyles' intelligence and playmaking abilities that should get him on the court early in his career," Falk said.
"One of the things that stood out for me in the workout was, when the ball was thrown ahead or [he was] rebounding the ball, his ability to push it on the dribble and make plays for other people," Snyder told Falk.
Hoisting the ROY hardware is a long shot, but Lyles could earn up to 20 minutes per game if Snyder really wants to mix in some floor-spacing sets.
11. Myles Turner, Indiana Pacers PF/C
4 of 14
In order to maximize Myles Turner's rookie season, the Indiana Pacers must utilize him better than the Texas Longhorns did.
Turner wasn't involved in enough pick-and-pop scenarios last year, nor was he given enough space to post up in Texas' lineup. Former coach Rick Barnes often employed three bigs on the floor at the same time with Turner only getting the scraps.
Frank Vogel must use the 7-footer as a ball screener and weak-side floor spacer. And when Roy Hibbert is resting (which is nearly 23 minutes per game), Turner should be targeted for mid-post turnarounds and low-post duck-ins. The former Longhorn should also be utilized closer to the basket defensively, which could affect how much he can play with Hibbert.
The departure of David West via free agency should free up some playing time for Turner, but he may not have the speed or strength to compete at a high level right away. At any rate, Vogel could learn from Barnes' mistakes and get Turner into double figures.
10. Justise Winslow, Miami Heat
5 of 14
Justise Winslow's ROY chances took a hit when ESPN's Marc Stein announced Luol Deng will opt in to the final year of his contract with the Miami Heat.
Nevertheless, Duke's 6'6" swingman is a dark-horse contender because he'll provide fresh legs for an otherwise veteran-laden lineup. Winslow may start the season as sixth man, but he'll still have a key role and could make some starts when Dwyane Wade and Deng need a day off—or if the injury bug hits one of them again.
Despite his raw shot-creating skills, Winslow has the wherewithal to be one of the most powerful NBA newbies.
Why? He has tremendous athleticism, body control and a nose for the rim. More importantly, he will earn a role because his quickness and length allows him to defend positions 1 through 3. On a per-possession basis, he could be one of the top-three defenders and top-three attackers in the rookie class, proving to be the group's finest two-way weapon.
Winslow's odds of toppling the rest of the rookie class are tiny considering his place in the Heat pecking order. But if anything happens to shake up that order, the incoming Blue Devil is ready to pounce.
9. Frank Kaminsky, Charlotte Hornets
6 of 14
The way the Charlotte Hornets are currently comprised, there probably won't be enough playing time or touches for Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky to outshine his rookie peers.
But if the Hornets deal a big man like Cody Zeller, which is what they were trying to do prior to the draft (per Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski), then the Badger will be in striking distance of the ROY trophy.
Kaminsky will be a dangerous weapon alongside Al Jefferson as a floor-spacing shooting threat, as he hit 42 percent of his triples in 2014-15. And when Big Al's not in the middle, Steve Clifford can use Frank the Tank's refined low-post skills near the hoop.
He was drafted in the top 10 because he's the most NBA-ready frontcourt player in this draft. He can hurt opponents in a multitude of ways, and his inside-out scoring blend could churn out 12-16 points per game.
Charlotte is hurting for offensive efficiency. The Hornets averaged just 100 points per 100 possessions in 2014-15, good for 28th place in the Association. Kaminsky's arrival as a stretch big could immediately help streamline their attack, making him more valued and utilized as the season unfolds.
8. Stanley Johnson, Detroit Pistons SF
7 of 14
Detroit Pistons newcomer Stanley Johnson isn't a favorite to contend for ROY. After all, he'll be playing alongside Andre Drummond, Reggie Jackson and Brandon Jennings, all of whom will require copious offensive touches.
However, if Stan Van Gundy doesn't add a major forward in free agency, Johnson could be a high-impact arrival and demolish projections.
Johnson exceeded expectations with a respectable 37 percent from three-land at Arizona in 2014-15. If his perimeter game takes another step in the right direction, he could supply a superb mix of shooting and attacking off the bounce. It's not a stretch to think he could score 12-15 points per game if the Pistons need it.
Bleacher Report's Zach Buckley notes that Johnson's influence and value will be even higher on the other end of the court:
"Defensively, he has the physical tools and mental makeup to be an impact player from Day 1. The Pistons, which wrapped up this campaign ranked 21st in defensive efficiency, should be glad to give him that opportunity."
In an era that increasingly values versatility, and efficiency, Johnson could earn ROY votes as the draft's best do-it-all player.
7. Emmanuel Mudiay, Denver Nuggets PG
8 of 14
The first step in Emmanuel Mudiay's quest to win ROY is to hope Ty Lawson finds a new home—and that's exactly what the Denver Nuggets have been trying to do for a while.
If Mudiay has a prominent role as the Nuggets' primary playmaker, he'll have a legitimate chance to shine as an electrifying rookie.
New coach Mike Malone needs to put the Chinese League star in plenty of pick-and-roll situations, because that's Mudiay's most dangerous weapon. The 6'5" Congolese-American guard is adept at turning the corner, weaving his way into the paint and creating for himself and teammates.
"...Malone said he wants to play with pace and defend well, which means he should absolutely love Mudiay," said CBSSports.com's James Herbert. "He will be asked to get to the basket and score as well as find open teammates."
Mudiay's pick-and-roll vision, slashing athleticism and defensive tools should be enough to earn 12-14 points and five to seven assists per night. But in order to win ROY, he'll have to reach the 15-plus point range via surprisingly good shooting.
Mudiay's back-to-back performances of 2-of-4 shooting from behind the arc to finish 2014-15 might not be a fluke. His shooting mechanics are flawed but not beyond repair, and he'll score in the 15-17 point range if he can hit a few more jumpers than we expected.
6. Willie Cauley-Stein, Sacramento Kings C
9 of 14
Kentucky product Willie Cauley-Stein has a chance to be a stat-stuffer unlike any other rookie in this class.
The Sacramento Kings tabbed the 7-footer at No. 6 because he'll supply lightning-quick defense against every team's top frontcourt talent. Cauley-Stein will also give them flexibility to switch on pick-and-rolls, and he'll give the perimeter defenders insurance as a help defender.
If he delivers the end-to-end defense he was drafted for, there's a distinct possibility he'll rank in the top three among rookies in rebounds, blocks and steals. He could also put up impressive numbers from a per-possession and box plus/minus standpoint. The big question mark is his offense.
Cauley-Stein's scoring opportunities would spike if Sac-Town deals DeMarcus Cousins. The departure of Boogie could give WCS a decent chance to score double figures via put-backs, pick-and-rolls and sporadic post-up hook shots.
If Cousins is still around, Cauley-Stein's ROY chances will be slim. He would have to shatter everyone's expectations on offense and apply his expanding jumper to game situations.
"I think people are going to be shocked...by the offensive game that I have," Cauley-Stein recently told Steve Serby of the New York Post.
If he's right, then he'll have a puncher's chance to win ROY with tremendous efficiency stats, loads of double-doubles and a pile of blocks and steals.
5. Mario Hezonja, Orlando Magic SG/SF
10 of 14Armed with arguably the best three-point stroke in the 2015 NBA draft class, Mario Hezonja's path to ROY glory involves out-shooting the rest of the field.
Croatia's explosive swingman joins an exciting up-and-coming core in Orlando—one that's already stocked with several guards and wings. However, in the event that restricted free agent Tobias Harris doesn't return, Hezonja would earn substantial shooting opportunities and a sweeter spot in the rotation.
Given his ability to connect from deep and also handle the ball as an interchangeable 2/3, Hezonja could give the Magic offense a new dimension. Orlando ranked 22nd in three-pointers and 25th in points per game during 2014-15, and the Spanish League's rising star could boost both of those marks.
If he can execute on both ends and gain the favor of defensive-minded coach Scott Skiles, he could enjoy a bigger role than anticipated.
"Hezonja’s skill set shows the mural of a player who could be a dominant wing man in the NBA for a good time to come. It almost seems like getting ahead of things, but the Magic will be a better team with Hezonja on the court," said Brett David Roberts of Orlando Magic Daily. "He is the shooter that was needed that Frye could not be."
With the ability to explode from beyond the arc and create inside it, Hezonja could be one of the most unguardable arrivals in the Association.
4. Kristaps Porzingis, New York Knicks PF/C
11 of 14
The only way for New York Knicks import Kristaps Porzingis to scale the rookie mountain is to diversify his scoring beyond everyone's expectations.
The 7'2" Latvian prodigy is known as a stretch big. We know he'll shoot over opponents from mid-range and three-point land immediately, but not much else is expected of him.
He has a slender frame, didn't rebound superbly in the Spanish ACB League (8.8 per 40 minutes) and didn't exhibit consistent deep-post skills. Porzingis shows potential as a back-to-the-basket scorer and rim protector, but for the most part, he's considered a project aside from his shooting.
But what if he's a multidimensional star much sooner than we all expected? Porzingis got his weight up to 230 pounds by draft week, and another 10-15 pounds before the regular season could make a huge difference for his interior competitiveness.
The Bockers don't have many dynamic weapons outside of Carmelo Anthony. This rebuilding year could be a massive opportunity for Porzingis to show that he can do more than shoot. If he sprinkles in some low-post turnarounds and rebounding tenacity with the perimeter game, he could average double-figure scoring and join the ROY hunt.
3. Jahlil Okafor, Philadelpha 76ers C
12 of 14
Unless the Philadelphia 76ers suddenly become lackadaisical with Joel Embiid's foot recovery and allow him to play big minutes, Jahlil Okafor will have a great shot to grab ROY honors.
Brett Brown just needs to stay creative and give his new prospect the rock. Okafor will carve up most Eastern Conference defenders when he catches the ball on quick duck-ins and post-ups or at the short corner. There's no guarantee that Philly will create for him, however, because the squad's point guard situation is still in flux.
Okafor has to meet Brown halfway. The coach likes to play with pace whenever possible, and Okafor wasn't exactly fleet of foot last year at Duke.
He looked in better shape during predraft workouts than he did at Duke, but getting up and down the floor in an 82-game season is a grind. If Okafor is truly mentally and physically ready for it, then abundant scoring opportunities will come his way.
Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal predicts that Okafor will post 16.8 points and 8.4 rebounds next year. If he exceeds those numbers and hits a best-case scenario stat line of 18 points and 10 rebounds, then ROY will be his.
2. D'Angelo Russell, Los Angeles Lakers PG/SG
13 of 14
D'Angelo Russell should be considered one of the front-runners for ROY because of his dual-threat skill level in the backcourt.
He has some polishing to do when it comes to defense, point guard execution and finishing with his off-hand. However, Ohio State's one-and-done sensation will do serious damage as a playmaker and shooter.
Newcomers who can produce as both passers and scorers tend to stand out among their peers. Kyrie Irving, Damian Lillard and Michael Carter-Williams are some recent examples. Russell can be that next creative guard whose statistical versatility catapults him to the top of the rookie food chain.
If the Lakers involve him in enough pick-and-rolls, he will put up numbers. CBSSports.com's Zach Harper talked about Russell's poise and mastery coming off screens:
"Watch Russell in the pick-and-roll and you notice a comfort we see with guards like Chris Paul, Stephen Curry and James Harden—lead guards with great patience in how they attack and wait for the defense to make a mistake in their coverages. There were few players in college basketball who were more lethal in pick-and-roll scoring situations this past year than Russell.
"
He'll be the primary ball-handler in most cases, but he'll also do some off-ball work when Jordan Clarkson and Kobe Bryant are initiating. A mixture of both roles could yield 15-17 points and five-plus assists per night for Russell.
1. Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves PF/C
14 of 14
Although Karl-Anthony Towns was the No. 1 overall selection and has several NBA-ready qualities, it won't be a piece of cake for him to contend for ROY.
Part of that is due to his rawness in some areas like shot-creation and defensive discipline. But it's also due to the talent that surrounds him. When healthy, the Minnesota Timberwolves have a dangerous core of talent that includes the likes of Ricky Rubio, Kevin Martin, Shabazz Muhammad, Gorgui Dieng and 2014 top rookie Andrew Wiggins.
So how can Towns get enough touches and stand out enough to win ROY? He has to dominate the frontcourt with his versatility.
With his young legs, ranginess and budding inside-out skill set, Towns could quickly set himself apart from Pekovic and Garnett. He could be the player that gives Minny the best chance to thrive in an uptempo style, defend multiple positions and attack from several angles on offense.
If Towns plays 30 minutes and flirts with a double-double—something like 14-plus points and nine-plus rebounds—he'll give himself a great chance to bring home the hardware.
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
