Continuity Is King in Today's NBA, but for How Long?
There is no manual for constructing an NBA championship contender.
But the list of past title-winners is littered with well-cultivated cores that benefited from years of organic growth.
Nothing carries more weight in the game's history books than continuity. From Bill Russell's Boston Celtics to Michael Jordan's Chicago Bulls all the way through to Stephen Curry's Golden State Warriors, the league has consistently produced champions on the strength of the rinse-and-repeat model involving savvy drafting, talent development and collective maturation.
"If you've played basketball, you know there is a hard-to-quantify element of continuity," Warriors general manager Bob Myers told Grantland's Zach Lowe in September. "Playing together with the same group of people for a long time makes you better. It just does."
In an ideal setting, continuity breeds chemistry. Systems can become more intricate as players master the basics. Spacing becomes second nature as guys learn where their teammates will be and where they're most effective.
Strengths are maximized, and weaknesses are covered up. Patience is often a myth in professional sports, but it can be a virtue to those fortunate enough to have it.
"I don't know if I can express to you how jealous I am of the fact that Tim (Duncan), Tony (Parker), Manu (Ginobili) and Pop (Spurs coach Gregg Popovich) have all been together for all those years," Kobe Bryant said in November, via ESPN.com's Baxter Holmes. "... I can't even express to you how jealous I am of that. Not all this up-and-down stuff."
But that up-and-down stuff is the reason fans see the offseason as one of the most exciting times on the basketball calendar. In a league historically dominated by superstars, no team is ever more than a few players away from title contention.
The Cleveland Cavaliers were a 33-win team in 2013-14. But after LeBron James' homecoming and Kevin Love's arrival this past season, they racked up 53 victories and advanced to the NBA Finals. The Boston Celtics jumped from 24 wins to 66 triumphs plus a world title in 2007-08 after grabbing both Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen during the preceding summer.
Continuity can be the key to longevity, but quick fixes can fast-track the process and yield the same outcome. With an astronomical salary-cap spike set to begin in 2016, the new key to contention could be navigating these changing waters by embracing the delicate, difficult art of short-term investments.
The rules of the free-agency game are changing. Long-term security used to be a primary goal, but the best path for top free agents to follow now could be one that allows for annual dips into the growing pot.
"Instead of valuing a maximum contract worth either four or five years, top free agents could pursue a one-year deal so their next contract coincides with the television deal's start date," wrote Mark Medina of the Los Angeles Daily News.
There's a risk involved with that decision. Should injuries or Father Time (or both) pull a player down from his current level, he might never recover the cash he could have collected on a longer, more lucrative deal. Players such as Marc Gasol (30 years old) and LaMarcus Aldridge (29) might be best-served by grabbing all the money they can get this summer.
But for younger guys with presumably more peak years ahead of them, there could be a substantial reward for waiting. Since max-contract values are based on percentages of the salary cap (ranging from 25 to 35 percent, based on years of service), there is a literal payoff for tapping into the highest possible cap.
Take LeBron, for instance.
Had James picked up his player option for 2015-16, he could have collected $21.5 million, according to Basketball Insiders. But by declining it, he can bump next season's salary to about $22 million.
Obviously, that isn't a major hike, but if paperwork is the only thing separating you from an extra half-million, you'll definitely fill it out. Once the new TV money kicks in, that's when James can start substantially boosting his salary.
As NBA.com's John Schuhmann noted, James' max salary in 2016-17 would be more than $29 million. It would climb again to more than $35 million by 2017-18. If he locks into a four-year deal that summer, he could collect more than $43 million in salary alone during the 2020-21 campaign.
The league-wide ramifications of James' financially-driven moves will likely be minimal. Barring some unforeseen plot twist, he won't depart Cleveland for a second time.
But James is far from the only player who is shaping his decision around the ballooning cap.
Swingman Jimmy Butler, this season's Most Improved Player, would prefer to sign a short-term deal with the Los Angeles Lakers, a source told Medina. But since the Chicago Bulls gave him a max qualifying offer, as noted by Basketball Insiders' Eric Pincus, Butler can't sign an offer from another team for less than three seasons—and the Bulls can match whatever offer he gets.
Unrestricted free agent Greg Monroe said he "might" look for a shorter deal this summer to score a richer one down the road, via Darrell Williams of the New Orleans Advocate. Kevin Love reportedly has spoken with teammates about whether he should "lock into a long-term deal this summer or look for a shorter deal," according to ESPN.com's Brian Windhorst.
Every premier free agent must consider the potential reward ahead of them if they ink a short contract.
"For any of the top guys that don't have durability issues, they would have a tremendous amount of flexibility to do a one-year deal," an NBA agent told Medina. "Some of those guys will be well suited not to go for four or five years. Instead, they would be better off to do a deal that gives them some options."
The NBA could be in for a major overhaul.
The allure of attracting top-shelf talent might be high enough for clubs to sacrifice continuity. Those with flexibility this summer could throw major money at mid-tier free agents with the knowledge that those deals won't be as burdensome moving forward.
Identities might change dramatically this summer.
Gregg Popovich's assembly line in San Antonio might feature a number of new faces. The Spurs have 10 players headed for free agency. Cuts will need to be made if they're able to lure in Aldridge, who, as a source told Yahoo Sports' Marc J. Spears, will meet the franchise on Wednesday.
The Portland Trail Blazers could embrace a youth movement once Aldridge leaves, or they could target a high-level player (Oregon native Kevin Love?) who might keep them in contention. The Los Angeles Clippers will have to bid on their own interior anchor DeAndre Jordan, who is scheduled to meet with the Lakers, Dallas Mavericks and New York Knicks, according to Ben Bolch and Broderick Turner of the Los Angeles Times.
The Bulls have a crowded frontcourt and a need for more depth on the wing. The Toronto Raptors could use a new power forward. The Miami Heat could be looking at a future without Dwyane Wade. The Atlanta Hawks might have to decide between starting forwards Paul Millsap and DeMarre Carroll.
Perhaps the only heavyweight that won't make a significant change is the one currently wearing the belt. The Dubs have to deal with Draymond Green's restricted free agency, but the All-Defensive First-Teamer reportedly likes his situation enough that he might be willing to take less than a max deal to help keep their nucleus in place, a source told Bay Area News Group's Marcus Thompson II.
Maybe that will help Golden State stay ahead of the pack. It certainly wouldn't hurt for this championship core to get another year older and wiser.
But the league's changing climate might make adaptability even more important than continuity. When there are this many high-profile players potentially on the move, most teams can't afford to marry themselves to their current cores.
Internal growth will always be an effective tool for roster-building, but external acquisitions could soon move to the forefront of the cap-bursting basketball world.
