Texas Football: Power Ranking Texas' 2015 Schedule from Easiest to Toughest
With only spring games, returning starters and past performance to go on, it's tough to gauge the Texas Longhorns schedule.
In a worst-case scenario, the Longhorns play 10 teams that have the offensive firepower and talent to take them down. As a young group with a second-year head coach, that would be a devastating blow, especially after the recruiting year this program just had.
It's more than likely that won't play out, but there's no doubt that this is a dangerous schedule with a tough out-of-conference slate. Charlie Strong's second season opens up with Notre Dame, and then five of his next six games are losable if his young team doesn't play well.
That's the second problem with this team. It's talented, but the most gifted players are the youngest, while the most experienced ones have largely proved to be the most inconsistent. This team has to search for leadership as much as it has to find guys who can make plays on a weekly basis.
Strong is a good coach, and he'll have to prove that this season. Once you get past the two cakewalks, this 2015 schedule could be quite unforgiving.
12. Nov. 7 vs. Kansas
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You have to feel sorry for the Kansas Jayhawks, whose uphill battle toward relevance took three massive hits this spring.
Head coach David Beaty had about the worst spring game imaginable. Athletic quarterback Michael Cummings took a helmet to his knee, and after surgery, he will be out indefinitely.
Adding insult to injury, Beaty has suspended leading rusher Corey Avery and receiver Rodriguez Coleman for an indefinite period of time. Avery is the only playmaker on the team beyond Cummings, and his suspension leaves this offense without any foreseeable punch this season.
The Longhorns have struggled with mobile quarterbacks, so this game could have been interesting for a spell with Cummings in action. That doesn't look like it will happen, leaving us with the Texas' seventh blowout in eight games.
11. Sept. 12 vs. Rice
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Come on, it's Rice.
No disrespect to the "Harvard of the South," but a loss just isn't going to happen. The Owls return only 10 starters and haven't beaten Texas since 1995, finishing within 10 points of the Horns just once.
The young Longhorns will need this one after a tough season-opener at Notre Dame. If this is Jerrod Heard's home debut, it should be a big one for the redshirt freshman.
10. Oct. 31 at Iowa State
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Iowa State has more promise than most teams should coming off a two-win season. For the Cyclones, it's about turning in complete games.
With Mark Mangino calling the shots, the offense has some upside this season. Sam B. Richardson returns as the most experienced quarterback in the conference, and he has shredded the Longhorns in recent seasons with some wily play.
The big question with this team is whether the defense can kill drives, much less a single play. Per cfbstats.com, the Cyclones gave up a conference-worst 6.53 yards per play in 2014. For reference, the Longhorns gave up 5.7 yards per play in their 48-10 loss to TCU.
There are a couple of new names that should bolster that side of the ball, but it'll take the entire team to correct those embarrassing numbers. Unless that happens, Richardson won't do enough for this team to live up to its potential as a giant-killer.
9. Nov. 26 vs. Texas Tech
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Texas Tech will be no gimme for the Longhorns this season. The Red Raiders will field an offense that can attack Texas in its weakest areas, while the Horns project to struggle in any shootout scenario.
All of this is old news for Kliff Kingsbury, who has always been able to move the ball both as a coordinator and a head coach. But for his Red Raiders to contend, they have to turn things around on defense and play with much more discipline.
Per cfbstats.com, Texas Tech finished last in the Big 12 in scoring defense and penalties and barely avoided coming in last in turnover margin in 2014. That is how you go 4-8 despite putting up over 500 yards per game.
If Tech can clean it up, it should be able to give Texas all it can handle. The Horns are replacing two starting cornerbacks this season and have little experience to plug in that can help control this type of offense.
However, history tells us the Longhorns will be the more disciplined team at this stage of the season with the defensive line to still give the Red Raiders some trouble.
8. Oct. 24 vs. Kansas State
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Bill Snyder always seems to figure out how to get even his most underwhelming teams up to relevancy. By the time his Wildcats meet up with the Longhorns, his team should look much better than it does right now.
The Wildcats have won at least six games in the five seasons since Snyder returned to the sidelines. Even when they look miserable to start the year, he figures out the formula, and then it's business as usual.
So while the quarterback and receiver positions look bleak, we should focus on what Snyder's strengths are with this team.
First off, he's returning four of his five starters along the offensive line, so you can bet he'll control the line of scrimmage when his team has the ball. On defense, he's coming off a 23-0 shutout in 2014 in which the Horns never looked like they stood a chance.
Last season, the Longhorns got killed up front and couldn't find anyone to make a play with Tyrone Swoopes struggling. Those two things must change, or Snyder will have his way once again.
7. Oct. 10 vs. Oklahoma (in Dallas)
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The Oklahoma roster looks the part of a Big 12 contender, sporting some big names on defense and one of the better rushing attacks in the country. However, like last season, the Sooners have to prove they can field a competent quarterback to for them to go anywhere.
As noted by the Dallas Morning News' Ryan Gerbosi, none of Oklahoma's quarterbacks looks particularly ready to get things turned around in Norman. Baker Mayfield, Cody Thomas and Trevor Knight all threw picks in the spring game, with Knight completing less than half of his passes.
If the season were to start today, Mayfield would probably be the guy. But is that really worth getting excited about? This is still a guy who's only played eight collegiate games, and he's thrown at least one pick in six of them.
Then there's the offensive line, which is replacing three starters from last year's stellar unit. It's just too easy to assume this team will automatically be much better than it was last season because the offense is getting a reboot from Lincoln Riley.
Unless either team proves differently, we should have another entertaining game in Dallas this season.
6. Sept. 19 vs. California
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Returning 17 starters and an experienced quarterback, Cal has a chance to surprise people in 2015 so long as its secondary buckles down.
The Bears went 5-7 last season almost solely because they couldn't stop the pass. Per cfbstats.com, they were the absolute worst passing defense in the country, allowing at least 31 points in their final 10 games.
But for the Bears and coach Sonny Dykes, it's all about progress, and last season's showing was a massive improvement over their 1-11 campaign in 2013. Now they get everyone back, and pro prospect Jared Goff is coming off a season in which he threw 35 touchdowns against just seven picks on over 500 attempts.
"My top QBs for the 2016 draft: 1. Jared Goff 2. Cardale 3. Paxton Lynch 4. Gunner Kiel 5. Jeremy Johnson 6. Hackenberg 7. Cody Kessler
"
This early in the season, the Longhorns are going to struggle containing this offense. They're replacing two starting cornerbacks and will probably have to trot out at least one freshman to get some real talent on the field.
That's going to be tough to overcome in the third game of the season, especially because the Texas offense is not built to hang around in shootouts.
5. Nov. 14 vs. West Virginia
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West Virginia's scariest trait is not that it's about to unleash a dual-threat quarterback on the Big 12 in Skyler Howard. It's that the Mountaineers should finally have a defense that can protect whatever lead he puts up.
The Mountaineers have finished in the conference's bottom half in both scoring and total defense all three seasons since they joined the Big 12. However, they showed improvement last season, allowing less than 30 points and 400 yards per game for the first time since the move.
This season, eight of those starters return for a unit that is loaded with juniors and seniors, including stalwart safety Karl Joseph. These guys have played a lot of snaps together, and that's going to pay dividends.
On offense, it sounds like Dana Holgorsen has not only settled on Howard as his guy, but he seems pretty excited to do so, per WVUSports.com:
"He is the clear-cut No. 1 right now. Not even close. He’s a different kid. He’s operating well. I sure hope I am not jinxing him right now. He is operating very well and looks great. His teammates believe in him. The coaches believe in him. He is doing well. All the other young kids are young kids. They are freshman and keep getting better. How good they get I don’t know. We are going to keep repping the heck out of them and watch them and see how they progress.
"
When Holgorsen gets a guy he likes running the show, the end result tends to be a ton of points on the scoreboard, and Howard's mobility will give Texas trouble. This is going to be a tough road game for the Horns.
4. Sept. 5 at Notre Dame
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Placing Notre Dame this high on the list is less a reflection of its talent than more that Texas will be dealing with tough circumstances in its first game of the season.
First off, the expectation is that redshirt freshman Jerrod Heard will win the starting job this offseason. That means his first start will be without 10 starters from last season, on the road and playing in front of a rabid fanbase.
That's not exactly an ideal scenario for your first collegiate start.
Then there's Malik Zaire, who ripped off 96 rushing yards to lead a victory over LSU in Music City Bowl. As Taysom Hill and other mobile quarterbacks have demonstrated, the Longhorns have a rough track record against quarterbacks who can move like the Irish's new leading man.
Were this game to occur in the middle or end of the season and the young Longhorns defense had had a chance to jell, this would probably be a really good game. On hostile ground without much veteran leadership to steady the team's collective nerves, it's going to be difficult for Texas to hang with the Irish.
3. Sept. 26 vs. Oklahoma State
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After being one of the most inexperienced teams in last year's Big 12, Oklahoma State gets 16 starters back in 2015. Most importantly, it should finally find some stability at quarterback.
Though interceptions were a problem, Mason Rudolph proved he's the real deal in his three starts as a freshman. He's a pure passer, and this team rallied around him for huge wins over Oklahoma and Washington to close the season.
Last season, Texas could have made Rudolph miserable with pressure. Now without Cedric Reed and Malcom Brown, the Horns lack proven pass-rushers in front of their young secondary, giving Rudolph everything he needs to turn in a big day.
The expectation is that Strong will figure out how to get pressure by this point of the season, but the Oklahoma State defense will also be a major problem. Phil Steele has seven Oklahoma State defenders on his four preseason All-Big 12 teams, and three come from the defensive line. This group will get after the Texas quarterback, making either Swoopes or Heard as uncomfortable as the Horns made Daxx Garman in 2014.
There's a chance Rudolph goes through a sophomore slump, but this is a talented team, and Mike Gundy has ripped off three wins in a row in Austin. It'll take some fine quarterback play to prevent him from taking No. 4.
2. Dec. 5 at Baylor
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Don't expect a drop-off from Baylor this season. In fact, this might be the best team the Bears have ever fielded under Art Briles.
The Bears lost Bryce Petty to the NFL, but replace him with a superior athlete in Seth Russell, per Sporting News' Matt Hayes. With four offensive linemen, the entire stable of running backs and every receiver but Antwan Goodley all returning, he should pick up right where Petty left off last season.
Like West Virginia, the real difference for the Bears this season should be on defense, which returns nine starters. That number includes one nasty defensive line led by Shawn Oakman and Andrew Billings, and as many as 10 starting upperclassmen.
On the other sideline, the Longhorns could be starting a redshirt freshman quarterback with four returning starters on defense. The team should be playing decent football by the time it runs into this Baylor team on the road, but the Horns are overmatched.
This one could get ugly.
1. Oct. 3 at TCU
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Though supremely talented, TCU might not be a better team than Baylor by the end of the season. The Horned Frogs have lost a lot on defense, most notably Paul Dawson and Sam Carter, while the Bears return basically the same team.
But in their fifth game of the season, the Longhorns just don't have a chance of slowing down this team.
Defense isn't much of a problem when you're putting up 50 points, and Gary Patterson's squad has a chance to do that when the Horns visit Fort Worth. Trevone Boykin has always given Texas trouble, and he gets almost everyone back who helped him hang 48 points on the conference's best defense last season.
The Longhorns have a bright future with the talent Charlie Strong has brought in during his short tenure. It will be important to remember that after this early shellacking.
Note: All returning starter data courtesy of PhilSteele.com.
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