6 NBA Teams That Have to Take the Biggest Risks During 2015 Free Agency
The NBA draft is a series of educated guesses that can make or break a franchise's long-term outlook.
Free agency can have a similar effect, though it's a far more expensive game to play. But there isn't nearly as much guesswork involved, and the biggest prizes can often provide instant relief.
For teams wanting to change their present fate, this can be the best way to do it. The following six clubs all fit the bill for various reasons.
Some need an immediate lift. Their rosters are anchored by in-their-prime (or past-their-prime) players, so their rebuilding clocks are accelerated. Others are searching for the kind of centerpiece capable of elevating the pieces already in place.
These aren't ready-made contenders, because those clubs already have most (if not all) of what they need. Organizations with both eyes on the future won't appear here either, since there isn't enough win-now talent available to actually help them win now.
With the free-agency window set to open soon, these are the decks in most need of reshuffling. To pull that off, each of these franchises must embrace a certain amount of risk.
Boston Celtics
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The Boston Celtics may have made a surprise appearance in the 2015 postseason, but they understand there is still a substantial amount of work to be done. There's only so much stock one can put in a playoff berth that didn't require a winning record to capture, after all.
Boston has the tools needed to radically reshape its roster. The Celtics could have as much as $33.2 million in cap space, via ESPN.com's Chris Forsberg, so they won't be priced out of any free-agent pursuits. They also own a boatload of future draft picks, which could be cashed in should the trade market offer up the type of top-shelf talent they currently lack.
But anything that would eat away at that mountain of assets is going to be a gamble. The Celtics, though, seem ready to start placing some high-priced bets.
Sources told Forsberg that Boston offered as many as six draft picks to the Charlotte Hornets for the chance to climb the draft board and grab versatile forward Justise Winslow. But the Hornets declined that offer, and the Celtics were stuck in the same draft slots where they started the night.
Boston made four selections during Thursday's draft, spending three of them on guards. With a backcourt-heavy roster already in place, the Celtics need to spend this summer balancing themselves out.
"We have a lot of guards," Celtics president of basketball operations Danny Ainge said, via Bleacher Report's Brian Robb. "We'll figure it out."
If they're going to figure it out in free agency, they'll need to make all-out pursuits for the crop's premier frontcourt players. They reportedly have scoring forward Tobias Harris on their radar, sources told RealGM's Shams Charania, and they'll almost certainly make a(nother) run at Kevin Love.
If the trade market offers the biggest prize—ESPN.com's Marc Stein heard in May the Celtics will chase All-Star center DeMarcus Cousins—Ainge might have the right combination of prospects and picks to get a deal done.
Dallas Mavericks
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The Dallas Mavericks' 50-32 record this past season seemingly puts them on the cusp of championship contention. But even if they were really at that level last year—their plus-3.5 net efficiency rating (eighth overall) paints them more as a good team than a great one—they'll need to dispense some elbow grease to stay there.
The Mavs may have to rebuild their starting backcourt. The Rajon Rondo experiment was an unmitigated disaster, and both sides appear more than ready for a divorce. But Monta Ellis could also be gone. The prolific scoring guard declined his $8.7 million option for 2015-16, and the Mavs are "not expected to make Ellis a high priority," according to Eddie Sefko of the Dallas Morning News.
Starting center Tyson Chandler is an unrestricted free agent, as are reserves Al-Farouq Aminu, Richard Jefferson, Amar'e Stoudemire, J.J. Barea and Richard Jefferson. Dallas could bring some of them back, but this team probably needs to reel in bigger fish if it hopes to make another lengthy playoff run with 37-year-old Dirk Nowitzki.
The Mavs are reportedly prioritizing the center and shooting guard spots, via ESPN.com's Tim MacMahon. Texas natives LaMarcus Aldridge and DeAndre Jordan would both help with the frontcourt voids, and each is expected to be a Mavs' target, via Fox Sports Southwest's Mike Fisher. At shooting guard, three-and-D guys such as Wesley Matthews, Danny Green and Khris Middleton would all be good options.
Dallas isn't starting from scratch. Nowitzki is still a tough cover as a 7-footer with three-point range. Chandler Parsons is a skilled forward who can handle multiple offensive roles.
But it will take a lot more than those two to tango with the Western Conference heavyweights. The Mavs must swing for the fences this summer. There are no guarantees they'll connect, but a home run signing could put them (or keep them, depending on your perspective) in the title race.
Los Angeles Lakers
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The Los Angeles Lakers are putting enough potential building blocks in place that they could continue down a slow, patient path to rebuilding.
Incredibly, I almost managed to type that sentence with a straight face. The Lakers undoubtedly have young talent pumping through the pipelines. If Jordan Clarkson can build off of his impressive rookie season and lottery picks D'Angelo Russell and Julius Randle can validate their lofty draft slots, this team could have an impressive youthful nucleus to anchor its rebuilding project.
But let's be honest: The Purple and Gold have never been the most patient organization. And it doesn't sound like the Lakers have any interest in adopting that virtue now, according to USA Today's Sam Amick:
"Lakers president and governor Jeanie Buss has made everyone in the team's front office well aware that there's a timeline in place here: get back to contention (second round or further in the playoffs) by the 2017 playoffs, or else. And yes, that includes both general manager Mitch Kupchak and her brother, executive vice president of basketball operations Jim Buss.
"
This isn't about disrupting the future to (possibly) send 36-year-old Kobe Bryant off with a chance at playoff contention. Rather, it's a burning desire to restore relevance to a franchise that has rarely been without it—the Lakers' current two-year playoff drought is tied for their longest ever.
Grabbing a premier player in free agency could make them more competitive now and brighten their promising future. The Lakers are reportedly moving up the list of preferred destinations for Aldridge, a source told Stein. They also reportedly have interest in Jordan (via Broderick Turner of the Los Angeles Times), Kevin Love (via Stein), Marc Gasol (via ESPN.com's Michael Wallace) and Dwyane Wade (via Chris Mannix of Sports Illustrated).
The Lakers could have close to $23 million to throw at free agents this year. With their biggest star fading and their other players not quite ready to shine, this is their chance to bridge two eras together.
New York Knicks
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The New York Knicks suffered a franchise-worst 65 losses this past season. If any number can highlight the need for a major overhaul, that's probably the one.
But that option isn't available to the Knicks. Not with as much as $101.6 million still owed to 31-year-old All-Star forward Carmelo Anthony.
It's hard to tell how much pressure New York feels to win now. Spending the No. 4 pick on the raw-but-incredibly-intriguing Kristaps Porzingis—a 19-year-old with a sky-high ceiling but an obvious need for seasoning—suggests the Knicks could be more patient than most people think.
But Anthony knows his clock is ticking. And that clock won't wait for Porzingis to develop. Anthony was reportedly upset over the draft pick, sources told Frank Isola of the New York Daily News, as he allegedly told a close friend, "Are we supposed to wait two or three years for this guy?"
Anthony denied those rumors while calling Porzingis "a steal" on Instagram (h/t USA Today's Nina Mandell). If Porzingis approaches his massive potential, he could easily be remembered as such.
But Anthony needs more present help. And the Knicks, who could have roughly $29 million in cap space this offseason, have the resources to give it to him.
There are holes all across this roster, so the Knicks could chase virtually any free agent. If they can grab a notable name, they should. But unless the allure of Madison Square Garden still carries serious weight among players, New York might not have enough to land a top target.
But spreading the money around to several players could be a better path, anyway. They Knicks have been linked to Greg Monroe for a while, via Isola, and they reportedly have a high chance of getting David West, a source told Bleacher Report's Jared Zwerling. Add a two-way wing—Carroll, Green, Matthews—and a cheap big (Bismack Biyombo?) to the mix, and the Knicks might change their fortune pretty quickly.
Portland Trail Blazers
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The Portland Trail Blazers could be tough to recognize next season.
Longtime starter Nicolas Batum has already been removed from the equation. The Blazers sent the 26-year-old swingman to the Charlotte Hornets for veteran Gerald Henderson and 19-year-old big man Noah Vonleh.
The changes might keep coming in Rip City. Seven different players are about to become unrestricted free agents, including three starters: LaMarcus Aldridge, Wesley Matthews and Robin Lopez. Aldridge, a four-time All-Star, reportedly informed the Blazers he won't return, a source told Erik Gundersen of the Columbian, though general manager Neil Olshey refuted that report, via Blazers.com's Casey Holdahl.
Matthews, who's rehabbing from a torn Achilles, is said to be seeking an average salary of roughly $15 million, a source told Amick. Lopez might be on his way out following Portland's draft-night trade for center Mason Plumlee. Arron Afflalo, who disappointed after arriving in a deadline deal with the Denver Nuggets, could be exiting too.
Just in case the Blazers' offseason schedule wasn't busy enough, All-Star point guard Damian Lillard is also eligible for a contract extension.
Portland has to figure out what type of identity it wants. If the Blazers believe they have a contender on their hands, they must do whatever they can to bring back their most prominent pieces. If not, they should reach for the reset button and target younger players to build around the likes of Lillard, Vonleh, Plumlee, C.J. McCollum and Meyers Leonard.
Either pursuit comes with uncertainty. If Portland prioritizes its own free agents, it still needs those players to want to return. If the Blazers chase younger guys, they'll most likely have to target restricted free agents. And that would mean tying up their cap space in offer sheets that teams could match and potentially missing out on other targets.
This will definitely be a busy summer for the Blazers. They have to make it a productive one.
Toronto Raptors
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The Toronto Raptors are in a tough place.
They seem like they're close to crashing the league's elite ranks. They have 97 wins to show for the last two seasons, along with top-10 net efficiency ratings in both campaigns.
But their current formula is flawed. They were a bottom-third team in defense and rebounding this season. Even with the league moving to a smaller, faster game, teams that struggle in both of those areas will not survive come playoff time.
Toronto doesn't need to abandon everything it's doing. There is obviously a considerable amount of talent north of the border. But it needs to address those deficiencies quickly with DeMar DeRozan entering his prime and Kyle Lowry fighting to keep his going.
The Raptors already made one significant change. They shipped veteran reserve Greivis Vasquez to the Milwaukee Bucks on draft night for a future first-rounder, the draft rights to Norman Powell and, most importantly, a little more wiggle room to revamp the roster.
"We wanted to have some flexibility, open up a little bit of space, just to keep our options open as we go into free agency and keep an open mind of where we go with the team," Raptors GM Masai Ujiri said, via Eric Koreen of the National Post.
The Raptors could have as much as $23 million in cap space, via Michael Grange of SportsNet.ca. Most of that money should be spent on an upgrade at power forward. Aldridge would be a tremendous get, but he might be out of Toronto's reach. Versatile forward Paul Millsap and Toronto native Tristan Thompson would both be worthwhile investments, though the latter is a restricted free agent.
If Toronto can shore up its defense and bolster its rebounding, this group has a chance to make that difficult leap from good to great.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
