Cleveland Cavaliers' Best Bet Is to Run It Back with Roster in 2015-16
Usually, when a team falls short of its goal and a cumbersome cap situation prevents meaningful roster improvement, it's cause for disappointment.
But for the Cleveland Cavaliers, it's really not so bad.
Cleveland traipsed through the Eastern Conference playoffs this past season, taking a pair of games from the historically potent Golden State Warriors in the Finals despite serious injuries to core players. Kevin Love went down at the end of the first round with a dislocated left shoulder, and Kyrie Irving played just one game in the Finals before succumbing to a fractured left kneecap.
Shorthanded, the Cavs had no choice but to lean heavily on LeBron James, and his efforts against Golden State were nearly enough to make him the first Finals MVP from a losing team since 1969. Fortunately, James shouldn't have to reprise his heroic, do-it-all role next year if the rest of the Cavaliers stay in the fold and, more importantly, stay healthy.
That second part, the health aspect, is mostly a matter of luck. But bringing back every piece of last year's Eastern Conference champs is entirely a practical question.
The Cavs can run it back if they want to, but keeping the band together will exact a massive financial toll.
Love and J.R. Smith have already opted out of their deals, according to ESPN.com's Marc Stein and Real GM's Shams Charania, respectively. Both are now unrestricted free agents, which means they can sign with any team without giving the Cavaliers the option of matching.
James is also expected to opt out so he can take advantage of a rising salary cap by signing another short-term deal.
ESPN.com's Brian Windhorst laid out the Cavaliers' feelings on Love's return:
"Numerous league executives, though, say it's sort of a no-brainer: The Cavs will offer Love a max contract of five years and around $100 million. Despite shoulder surgery, a bad back and a worrisome knee, Love figures to get multiple max offers this summer. Such is the market.
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Love doesn't have to accept Cleveland's offer, just as Smith is free to skip town if he gets a better deal elsewhere. But if the Cavs are willing to fork over serious cash while offering a legitimate chance to win titles, it's difficult to imagine either player walking away.
Restricted free agency will present its own issues: Matthew Dellavedova, Iman Shumpert and Tristan Thompson will all field offers from teams around the league. The Cavaliers can match to retain those three players, and they're allowed to exceed the salary cap to keep the rest of their unrestricted free agents.
But boy oh boy, will it cost them.
According to Grantland's Zach Lowe, "If they bring everyone back at the expected rates, including LeBron and Love once they opt out, they will end up spending more than $200 million on payroll—the largest figure in league history."
Eat your hearts out, Brooklyn Nets. There's going to be a new tax champion after this coming season.
If the Cavs want to keep contending, that's the route they'll have to go, because they simply don't have other means to build the roster.
Let's say they only bring back James, Love and Thompson. If we assume all three return at market-rate deals, the Cavaliers would have well in excess of $80 million in guaranteed money committed to next year's salaries—putting them over the cap and into the luxury tax.
A team's resources dwindle to almost nothing at that stage, and the Cavs would only be able to bring in outside help with the taxpayer's mid-level exception and veteran-minimum deals. The chances of getting real rotation players to replace the likes of Smith, Shumpert and Dellavedova would be slim at those rates.
If you're an optimist, you could make the case that James' presence has attracted help at bargain prices before. But Shane Battier has been retired for a year, Shawn Marion is about to join him and neither Mike Miller nor James Jones were effective players this past season.
Dwyane Wade is not an option either, unless he's willing to sacrifice millions of dollars and his legacy in Miami.
James' stable of veteran pals is dwindling.
If general manager David Griffin has anything to say about it, the Cavaliers won't have to test James' veteran-attracting powers.
According to Lowe, Griffin said the Cavs are prepared to bite the tax bullet (which is actually the size of a torpedo) for the time being: "It's a given with our ownership. Now, it's not sustainable to run those numbers year after year, as we've seen in other places. But if it's to keep this group together, we can absolutely do it. It's not gonna be cheap, but we're gonna find a way."
This is a wild situation, one where the phrase "win at all costs" becomes more than the cliche (or outright lie) it usually is.
But when you have James as a cornerstone, and when you realize he's already 30, drastic short-term measures to maintain contending status are appropriate. Even when, as is the case now, drastic measures merely entail preserving the status quo.
If continued title pursuits during James' prime are the goal, this is the only option the Cavs have: spend exorbitantly, hope for better health and trust that the talent in place comes together with more reps.
Offseason paradox alert: Cleveland can't improve by changing. Its only hope is to get better by staying the same.
Salary information courtesy of Basketball Insiders.
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