UFC Fight Night 71 Preliminary Card Predictions
Don't get too comfortable yet if you were planning on taking a break from the busy International Fight Week. Wednesday is yet another UFC event, this time hailing live from San Diego.
UFC Fight Night 71, which is headlined by heavyweights Frank Mir and Todd Duffee, looks to be a fun little event featuring a lot of up-and-comers and prospects, including names such as Tony Ferguson, Holly Holm and Alan Jouban.
However, before we see those main card stars, we have the prelims. International Fight Week has not been the nicest to my prelim record this year, so I'll look to right the ship going forward.
Without further ado, here are the preliminary card picks for Wednesday's fights.
Riley's 2015 Record: 79-52
Last Event: 5-6 (UFC 189 and TUF 21 Finale)
Andrew Craig vs. Lyman Good
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Kicking off the card is a pair of welterweights, as late replacement Lyman Good looks to kick things off on the right foot with the UFC against Andrew Craig.
Craig is a former middleweight making the journey down to 170 for this one, as he may have been a touch undersized at his former home. He is a brawler who will not wow you with technique as much as he will with toughness and his ability to touch his opponent's chin.
He finds himself in a must-win situation here, as he is 1-3 in his last four. Despite a split-decision win over Chris Leben in that stretch, Craig has suffered losses to Ronny Markes, Luke Barnatt and Cezar Ferreira and is fighting for the first time in over a year.
As for Good, he took this fight on very late notice for the injured Edgar Garcia but will look to take advantage of this opportunity. The former Bellator champion is a striker with good knockout power and improving takedown defense, though I doubt he has to worry about Craig shooting on him here.
Since failing to make The Ultimate Fighter 19 house, Good has gone undefeated on the East Coast circuit. Wins in that stretch include a submission of UFC veteran Nah-Shon Burrell and a knockout of TUF 16 cast member Matt Secor.
Craig certainly will make this entertaining, but upright, where his strength lies, is also Good's strength. He is better, which is why the former Bellator champion will be victorious.
Prediction: Good def. Craig via decision
Kevin Casey vs. Ildemar Alcantara
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Next up are the middleweights, as hulking 185-pounder Kevin Casey makes his return to the cage against Brazilian middler Ildemar Alcantara.
Casey returns to the cage after a suspension for PED usage, which saw his image tainted a little bit. Nevertheless, Casey is an explosive fighter with great physical strength and a suffocating ground game, as the BJJ black belt consistently gets takedowns where he can inflict punishment.
Since his first run in the UFC, which was one-and-done after TUF 17, Casey has yet to lose a fight. He went 3-0 en route to the RFA Middleweight Championship, which earned him a spot on the UFC roster. He then defeated Bubba Bush in just over a minute in his return fight to the UFC, though that fight was turned to a no-contest after his drug test came back hot.
As for Alcantara, the more experienced Brazilian is a grinder who isn't going to impress you with how exciting he is. He is workmanlike and thrives in the clinch and on the ground, though he is not as physically imposing as Casey.
After a while spent at 170 pounds, Alcantara moved up to 185 pounds in his last fight. There, he won a split verdict over Richardson Moreira, putting him in the competitive playing field that is the middleweight division.
Alcantara is a tough out for anybody, but Casey has looked like he's on another level lately. Assuming he doesn't regress much from his days of PED usage, Casey should take this one, possibly in violent fashion.
Prediction: Casey def. Alcantara via TKO
Igor Araujo vs. Sean Strickland
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Welterweights will collide next, as Sean Strickland looks to jump back into the win column against Igor Araujo.
Strickland is a well-rounded, gritty fighter who showed off a great chin and great power in his last fight. His wrestling and defensive grappling are very good, which should allow him to hold some advantage in this fight against Araujo.
He is 2-1 since coming to the UFC, though both wins came in the middleweight division. There, he defeated Bubba McDaniel and Luke Barnatt before dropping to his current weight class, where he suffered a loss in his latest bout, a barnburner against Santiago Ponzinibbio.
He takes on Araujo, who is a grappler representing Jackson-Winklejohn MMA. He is a beast on the ground, owning good positional grappling and a solid submission arsenal that Strickland needs to worry about if put on the mat.
Since coming to the UFC, after failing to in the first place after TUF 16, Araujo has gone 2-1. He fell to George Sullivan in violent fashion in his most recent outing, which reversed the fortunes of winning his first two fights in the company over Ildemar Alcantara and Danny Mitchell.
Araujo will struggle to get the fight down as well as strike with a hard-nosed guy like Strickland. That's why the American will score a victory here.
Prediction: Strickland def. Araujo via decision
Rani Yahya vs. Masanori Kanehara
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Next up are the bantamweights, as Brazilian grappler Rani Yahya takes on Japanese counterpart Masanori Kanehara.
Yahya is a high-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, and he shows it whenever he fights. Just look at his record. Of his 20 wins as a pro, 16 of them have been via submission, showing that he means business when he hits the mat, especially when it comes to chokeholds.
He is 4-1 (one no-contest) in his last six, showing the Brazilian is still a consistent threat in the division. If you disregard the loss to Tom Niinimaki, you will notice wins in that stretch over Josh Grispi, Mizuto Hirota and Johnny Bedford, showing Yahya is always a win away from contention at 135.
As for Kanehara, the Japanese fighter is a little more well-rounded than the Brazilian, as he can be more willing to stand and bang than Yahya. He has a similar amount of knockouts and submissions, so it would be wise for him to stay away from a grappling bout with Yahya.
After a strong couple years of fighting overseas, Kanehara inked a contract with the UFC to fight in his home country for his debut. There, he outclassed Alex Caceres en route to a decision win, putting him in the hunt in the bantamweight division.
This should actually be a pretty entertaining matchup given both men's mat chops. I just feel Yahya's ground game is stronger, which is why he will be victorious.
Prediction: Yahya def. Kanehara via decision
Jessica Andrade vs. Sarah Moras
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The ladies take to the cage in the next bout, as Brazilian slugger Jessica Andrade meets up with Canadian Sarah Moras.
Andrade is a well-rounded fighter, though one can see that she is more comfortable brawling on the feet. She has great power for a woman her size when it comes to striking and also has an incredibly tight guillotine choke that she uses proficiently.
She is 3-2 in the UFC, only losing to top fighters Liz Carmouche (on short notice) and Marion Reneau. Sandwiched in between those losses was a three-fight winning streak where she bested Rosi Sexton, Raquel Pennington and Larissa Pacheco, showing Andrade can be a player in this division.
Moras was a cast member of TUF 18. She fought for Miesha Tate's squad and eventually made the semifinals. She is a good wrestler who prefers mat work, where she employs great ground-and-pound and a solid submission arsenal against all foes.
After her loss in the semifinals on the reality show to eventual winner Julianna Pena, Moras made her debut later than the rest of the cast due to injuries. When she eventually did, she took on a heavy Alexis Dufresne and won a decision that kept her roster spot.
Moras can be successful here if she shoots and gets Andrade to the ground. However, Andrade can defend that shot and throw bombs on the feet, which is why she will likely be victorious.
Prediction: Andrade def. Moras via TKO
Sam Sicilia vs. Yaotzin Meza
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Capping things off are the featherweights, as Sam Sicilia takes on late replacement Yaotzin Meza, who fills in for the injured Doo Ho Choi.
Sicilia is a pretty well-rounded fighter, though one could assert he's a jack-of-all-trades, master of none. He is very powerful with his hands and has decent enough wrestling, the latter of which is usually used to keep fights upright, where he can look for the knockout.
His longevity in the UFC can be attributed to his excitement and ability to come up big when his back is against the wall. He is 3-2 in his last five, claiming victories in that stretch over Godofredo Pepey, Aaron Phillips and Akira Corassani, though his two losses in that stretch come via submission.
Meza is an MMA Lab rep who, like Sicilia, does not necessarily stand out in one facet of the game. He is a workmanlike fighter who earns every inch he takes in the cage and has a decent wrestling ability to go along with his solid hands upright.
Meza is 2-2 (one no-contest) in the UFC thus far, showing he has yet to find consistency. He took losses to Chad Mendes and Sergio Pettis but earned wins over the likes of John Albert and Damian Stasiak.
This should be an exciting fight, and close at that. That said, I think Sicilia is the superior fighter, which is why he will earn the victory here.
Prediction: Sicilia def. Meza via decision
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