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UFC 189 Prelim Predictions, Featuring Matt Brown vs. Tim Means

Riley KontekJul 8, 2015

International Fight Week is upon us, and one of the biggest cards of the year is set to go down. That's right, UFC 189 and its two title fights are just days away.

With Conor McGregor, Chad Mendes, Rory MacDonald and Robbie Lawler soaking up the spotlight, the other fights on the card have received little attention—especially those on the preliminary card.

Hopefully, things turn around for me in this prediction piece. UFC Fight Night 70 saw me fly under the .500 mark.

Without further ado, here are the predictions for UFC 189's preliminary card.

2015 Riley's Record: 74-46

Last Event: UFC Fight Night 70 (1-3)

Yosdenis Cedeno vs. Cody Pfister

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A lightweight bout kicks off the card on Fight Pass, as Cuban-American Yosdenis Cedeno takes on Cody Pfister.

Pfister prefers to bang on the feet, as the Texas-based fighter is a finisher with his hands, but he can fight on the ground if he needs to. Most of his success has come against lower-level fighters, so a showdown with a UFC veteran could be an issue.

After a solid string of wins on the regional scene, Pfister was given a late-notice bout against James Moontasri. There, he was completely outclassed on the feet before getting choked out on the mat.

As for Cedeno, The Pink Panther is also a striker with a lanky, long frame that allows him to bang from a distance. He has good kicks that complement the power in his hands and allow him to earn knockouts at a high rate.

As a UFC fighter, Cedeno is just 1-2 thus far. Though he has defeated Jerrod Sanders, he was defeated by decision at the hands of Ernest Chavez and Chad Laprise.

Pfister does not seem like he belongs in the UFC, and his strength is also Cedeno's strength. Unfortunately for him, Cedeno is much stronger in that respect.

Prediction: Cedeno def. Pfister via TKO

Neil Seery vs. Louis Smolka

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Next up are the flyweights, as invading Irishman Neil Seery looks to get Ireland on the board early against Hawaiian banger Louis Smolka. 

Seery is the former Cage Warriors Flyweight Champion, and he made drastic improvements to his game after a slow start to his career. He is more of a boxer than anything, though he has solid takedown defense and an underrated submission arsenal. 

Since joining the UFC, he has proven to be a good addition to the roster. He lost a late-notice bout to Brad Pickett in his debut, but he took impressive victories over Phil Harris and Chris Beal via unanimous decision after that.

As for Smolka, he is a quick, athletic striker with a long frame and a solid ground game to complement his striking. He is one of many Hawaiian prospects making a name for themselves right now.

He has been a strong competitor for the UFC thus far. Though he did fall via split decision to title challenger Chris Cariaso, he bested Alptekin Ozkilic and viciously knocked out Richie Vaculik.

This is going to be a competitive bout that could easily go either way. Don't be shocked if Smolka takes this, but Seery is underrated and should pull out a close one.

Prediction: Seery def. Smolka via decision

Cody Garbrandt vs. Henry Briones

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The bantamweights will do battle next, as Mexico's Henry Briones takes on a tough task in the form of Team Alpha Male's Cody Garbrandt. 

Garbrandt is a power striker who throws power punches and likes to end fights in violent fashion. He has good takedown defense from working with Team Alpha Male, which allows him to stay up and throw bombs.

His UFC debut showed why the undefeated fighter was inked by the UFC. In a fun three-round affair, Garbrandt viciously put down Marcus Brimage with a big stoppage from strikes.

As for Briones, a member of TUF Latin America, he is a Mexican veteran who has over 20 fights under his belt. He has an experience edge over Garbrandt in MMA, as well as knockout power and a submission game that allow him to be a solid midcarder.

After his stint on TUF, Briones was given a shot in the UFC at the finale. There, he choked out Guido Cannetti after rocking him hard on the feet.

Garbrandt has proven to be a top prospect at 135 pounds and is being set up for success here. Briones is solid, but not nearly on the level of the Team Alpha Male product.

Prediction: Garbrandt def. Briones via KO

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Mike Swick vs. Alex Garcia

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Welterweight staple Mike Swick is set to make his comeback after over two years away from the cage, but a top prospect by the name of Alex Garcia is in his way, and he'll be looking to spoil his reunion with the Octagon.

Swick is a longtime veteran who has been putting in work in Thailand, opening his own branch of the American Kickboxing Academy in that country. It has kept him away from the cage, as the last time he competed was December 2012, when he was put down by Matt Brown.

As for Garcia, the Dominican-born fighter looks like a miniature version of Hector Lombard and has a power game similar to his. He throws heavy hands and has a good ground game, though his cardio has come into question a little bit.

His time in the UFC has been solid thus far, going 2-1. Though he took a loss to Neil Magny in his most recent affair, he owns a decision over Sean Spencer and a knockout of Ben Wall.

Swick has been away for a long time, and Garcia is a guy with notable power. Garcia will win, and Swick will assume a full-time role as a coach in Thailand, where he is already doing big things.

Prediction: Garcia def. Swick via decision

John Howard vs. Cathal Pendred

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We'll remain in the welterweight division for the next bout, as Ireland's Cathal Pendred continues the trend of Irish fighters on this card when he takes on Boston's John Howard.

Pendred is a grinder who took this fight on short notice. He is large for the 170-pound weight class and uses his size well, pushing up on opponents and frustrating them with his clinch and takedown game.

He is undefeated in the UFC thus far and is looking to score his fifth win in under a year with the company. Right now, he is 4-0 with the company, earning wins over Mike King, Gasan Umalatov, Sean Spencer and Augusto Montano, a bout that came just a couple weeks ago.

Then there's Howard, a longtime veteran of the sport with great Muay Thai skills and underrated wrestling. That said, when guys are able to grind and wrestle him, he struggles, which makes this a tough matchup for him.

His return to the UFC saw him win two straight, then he began his current three-fight skid. In that span, he has lost by decision to Ryan LaFlare and Brian Ebersole, while getting knocked out by Lorenz Larkin.

Pendred has a knack for making things ugly and reaping the rewards. Howard has seen better days, and he will be shown the door in a potentially controversial decision.

Prediction: Pendred def. Howard via decision

Matt Brown vs. Tim Means

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The prelims will be capped off with a fight between two exciting welterweights, as title contender Matt Brown looks to take on the unheralded Tim Means. 

Brown has been a top welterweight for several years now, emerging from obscurity to become a violent wrecking machine fighting the top guys in the division. He has wicked knockout power and a great will to survive, taking massive punishment while dishing it out to his opponent.

He went on a great winning streak before his current two-fight skid. That skid saw him take decision losses to former UFC champ Johny Hendricks and current UFC champ Robbie Lawler.

As for Means, he is primarily a striker, though he showed in his most recent bout that he can submit guys on the ground. That said, he does most of his work on the feet, where he possesses strong punches, kicks, knees and elbows, making him a dangerous adversary to bang with.

Means is hitting his stride right now, as he finds himself in the midst of a four-fight surge. He took decisions over Brazilians Hernani Perpetuo and Marcio Alexandre, while knocking out Dhiego Lima and choking out George Sullivan.

Last time I picked against Means, he called me out in his post-fight interview. He may be doing it again if he wins, but I think Brown is on another level at this point in his career.

Prediction: Brown def. Means via decision

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