1 Nightmare Recruiting Scenario for Every Top 25 Recruiting Class
The summer is a time for optimism for college football fans. Every team is undefeated at this point, and renewed hope hits almost every fanbase.
That feeling carries over into recruiting too. More and more players are starting to choose their schools, which creates hot streaks and big moves up the recruiting rankings for some programs.
But with this article, let's check the optimism at the door.
Recruiting is a wild affair that has as much disappointment as delight. One flip can turn momentum in a cycle, and whiffing on a can't-miss prospect can sometimes change the direction of a program.
Here are the nightmare scenarios for each top 25 recruiting class in 247Sports' 2016 composite rankings. Outside of everybody decommitting and a completely empty fax machine on signing day, these are the worst realistic cases for each team for the rest of this cycle.
25. Nebraska: Have a Quarterback Flip
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Nebraska needed to address its quarterback depth this cycle after not picking up a signal-caller in the 2015 class. The Huskers latched onto 3-stars Patrick O'Brien and Terry Wilson, and now they have to hold onto them until signing day.
O'Brien is an interesting case. After a long stretch without any FBS offers, he became a Nebraska commitment and an Elite 11 finalist in the matter of months. He should continue to shoot up in the rankings as the year goes on and receive more interest from power schools.
Securing O'Brien and Wilson, who is also rising fast this year, would be monumental for new Nebraska head coach Mike Riley and his staff. But more eyes are starting to land on their prized quarterback recruits, and a flip would mean it's back to square one for the Huskers.
24. Texas Tech: Lose Another 4-Star Commitment
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After a 4-8 season in 2014, Texas Tech raised some eyebrows by opening the 2016 recruiting cycle with a large number of commitments. But, as the Dallas Morning News' Tommy Magelssen wrote, the two biggest names of the class are no longer headed to the Red Raiders.
"Texas Tech got off to a hot start with its Class of 2016, getting oral commitments from a pair of composite 4-star prospects," Magelssen wrote. "Fast forward several months, though, and both of them—quarterback Tristen Wallace and safety Collin Wilder—are gone."
Texas Tech will look to avoid three straight 4-star decommitments with wide receiver T.J. Vasher, a 6'5" athletic target who would do well in the Red Raiders' system. Vasher committed to Tech earlier this month but holds offers from bigger schools such as Oklahoma, Ohio State, Texas and Texas A&M.
23. Clemson: Sign Zero Defensive Linemen
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Clemson's defensive line class in 2015 was massive, and the future of the trenches in Death Valley is bright. But as Bleacher Report's Michael Felder says, the lack of pledges along the front four is cause for concern right now.
"Defensive line, offensive line and defensive back are positions I think you have to recruit every single cycle," Felder said. "And for me, not having any defensive linemen committed is a disappointment for me. I want them to have more defensive linemen."
The Tigers are in for a handful of top defensive linemen, including No. 1 overall player Rashan Gary, 4-star tackle Nyles Pinckney and 4-star end Jordan Smith. Missing out on all three of these players would hurt a team that has made tremendous waves in recruiting over the last few years.
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22. Oregon: Miss out on a Top 100 Recruit
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After making a run all the way to the first College Football Playoff National Championship Game, one might expect Oregon to be swimming in top recruits right now. But when it comes to landing the nation's best players, the Ducks are on dry land at this point.
Oregon doesn't have a single commitment in the top 100 of 247Sports' composite rankings. The Ducks are leaders for only of the top 100 targets—4-star Mississippi cornerback Nigel Knott, who also holds offers from several nearby SEC schools.
Oregon isn't a traditional recruiting powerhouse, but it has signed a pair of top-100 recruits each of the last two cycles. Failing to fully capitalize on a fantastic 2014 season would be devastating for Oregon's recruiting.
21. Tennessee: Fall out of the Recruiting Spotlight
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Tennessee's 2016 recruiting class was never going to match up to its last two. Butch Jones and his staff have signed a huge amount of players in recent years, so the Volunteers are most likely taking less than 20 players this cycle.
With a smaller class set to come in, the Volunteers can be somewhat picky with who they take. At this point, Tennessee has yet to nail down a prospect who is in the top 10 at his position, outside of 4-star dual-threat quarterback Jarrett Guarantano.
The worst-case scenario for Jones and his program is that the Volunteers fail to keep the ball rolling in recruiting after two fantastic seasons. Losing that momentum would be a major step back for this waking giant in the SEC East.
20. Stanford: Lose Any of Its Top-100 Pledges
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As 247Sports' Barton Simmons wrote in April, "stars truly don't seem to matter [at Stanford], but they also don't hurt." In a program with strict academic standards, David Shaw and his Stanford staff usually develop under-the-radar talents into top players.
That makes what Stanford has done so far this cycle—a class that includes top-100 commitments—even more impressive, but it's a double-edged sword. Highly touted prospects such as 5-star tight end Kaden Smith and 4-star quarterback KJ Costello could push Stanford to greater heights down the road, but any decommitments would hurt the program's momentum.
Players who commit to a program like Stanford almost always stay true through signing day. But any flips would be bad news for a Cardinal team that could push into national title contention down the road with more elite recruits like the ones already on board.
19. Baylor: Patrick Hudson Flips Again
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Baylor made headlines last year when 5-star Patrick Hudson, who is rated as the No. 2 offensive tackle in the country, flipped his commitment from Texas A&M to the Bears.
Hudson is a massive recruit—literally with his size (6'5 ½", 325 lbs) and figuratively with his rating—so losing him would be an even bigger blow to this Baylor recruiting class. Hudson's commitment has given Baylor plenty of momentum throughout Texas, as the Bears are in the hunt for a handful of blue-chip stars.
Hudson is continuing to receive attention from Texas A&M, Texas and LSU. Flipping twice in a cycle would be out of the ordinary, but stranger things have happened in the wild world of recruiting.
18. Florida: Fail to Sign a QB Again
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New Florida head coach Jim McElwain has inherited a mess at quarterback in Gainesville. The Gators have failed to sign a top quarterback prospect in the class of 2015, and 2014 signees Treon Harris and Will Grier will be in their third season of eligibility by the time the class of 2016 hits campus.
It's hard to get a read on Florida's best options at quarterback at this point. Texas A&M legacy Dillon Sterling-Cole, one of the fastest-rising signal-callers in the country and a 4-star prospect, is most likely the top target. The Gators are also trying to flip 4-star Florida quarterback Feleipe Franks from LSU.
If the Gators miss out on Sterling-Cole, Franks or any other 2016 quarterback, the revitalization project known as the Florida offense will become even more challenging for McElwain and his staff.
17. Kentucky: A Stall in Momentum on the Field
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Kentucky is recruiting lights-out right now and has a chance to finish with an unprecedented top-20 class. With a pair of 4-stars on board and plenty of 3-star talent, the biggest challenge for the Wildcats for the rest of the season is keeping these players committed.
"Recently, the Wildcats have gotten off to hot starts only to see some of those players decide to go to more traditional powerhouses," Bleacher Report's Brad Shepard wrote earlier this month. "Ohio State, for example, stole away a couple of those players in recent years."
The best way for Kentucky to keep these rising recruits is to make some progress on the field this fall. If Kentucky has another losing season, some of these pledges might jump ship, which will make the job more difficult for Mark Stoops and his staff.
16. Auburn: Go 0-for-3 with the Alabama 5-Stars
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After a slow start to the cycle, Auburn has been a high-riser in recent weeks and will look to keep that momentum going with some more top commitments this summer.
The state of Alabama has three 5-star players in this class, and the Tigers can't afford to miss on all three of them. Outside linebackers Ben Davis and Lyndell Wilson are both expected to sign with Alabama, putting Auburn in an early hole for this trio.
That leaves the spotlight on defensive end Marlon Davidson, whose older brother—Kenneth Carter—played at Auburn. If the Tigers fail to sign Davidson and go 0-for-3 for the 5-stars, it will be a tough break for a program that desperately needs more impact players on defense.
15. Duke: Lose Scott Bracey
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Duke's fantastic 2016 recruiting class is headlined by 4-star athlete Scott Bracey, who committed to the Blue Devils last July. He is perhaps the biggest commitment in Duke football history, and Bleacher Report's Tyler Donohue called him a player who could instantly change the program.
According to 247Sports' Adam Rowe, several other schools are working hard to flip Bracey from Duke. Some of these schools include recruiting powerhouses Georgia and LSU.
Bracey says he remains 100 percent committed to Duke, but an underwhelming 2015 season for the Blue Devils and more pushing from other schools could make this instant-impact recruit change his mind.
14. USC: Lose an In-State Commitment to UCLA
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After losing three straight games to UCLA, USC is trying to claw its way back to controlling this city rivalry by recruiting and developing top talent. Taking another L from the Bruins, this time on the recruiting trail, would be a nightmare situation for USC.
Three of USC's top pledges right now have also been offered by UCLA, and opportunities for decommitments could arise over the next few months. Running back Melquise Stovall will be one to watch as he takes unofficial visits following his commitment to USC earlier this month.
Rival flips are always the worst-case scenario for teams, and ones to bitter rivals could hurt your in-state momentum. The Trojans need to continue to secure California's best players and make sure they don't become Bruins.
13. TCU: Rival School Flips Courtney Lark
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TCU lost 4-star wide receiver J.F. Thomas to Texas Tech last cycle, and another flip to the Red Raiders or another rival school could be on its way to this class.
According to 247Sports' Daniel Paulling, 4-star wide receiver and TCU commitment Courtney Lark is still interested in Texas Tech, along with Ohio State and Oklahoma. Since he's planning to take visits to several of these schools this fall, the Horned Frogs might lose their top-rated recruit for 2016.
Losing a top wide receiver target to Texas Tech in back-to-back seasons would be frustrating for TCU, even with the success the staff has had at other positions in this cycle. TCU needs to keep Lark on board and out of the hands of another Big 12 rival.
12. UCLA: Lose an In-State Commitment to USC
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Just like USC, UCLA would hate to see a cross-Los Angeles flip happen in the opposite direction. Staying ahead of the Trojans is important, and losing one of their commitments to their rivals would be a nightmare for the Bruins and their fans.
Five of UCLA's six 4-star commitments hold offers from USC, and a flip from any one of these players would be hard to stomach. According to 247Sports' Steve Wiltfong, UCLA pledge Lokeni Toailoa, the nation's No. 2 inside linebacker, is continuing to be evaluated by USC as a potential combo with his 3-star brother Leni Toailoa.
With more blue-chip targets on the board than the Bruins, USC will most likely catch up with UCLA in this cycle. But losing a former commitment to USC would be salt in that wound.
11. Penn State: Fail to Sign Brendan Ferns
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Ohio State was the runaway favorite for Brendan Ferns, one of the best inside linebackers in the country, until last month, when he reset his recruitment because Ohio State didn't offer the major he wanted.
Now Penn State looks like the leader for Ferns, who addresses a major team need and would be a perfect fit to continue the program's tradition of great linebackers. Right now, the Nittany Lions' biggest competition for Ferns appears to be nearby West Virginia.
Getting a top recruit out of Ohio would be huge for Penn State's future, and losing the battle for him would be a major missed opportunity. In terms of fit and impact on the program, they don't come much bigger than Ferns for Penn State.
10. Texas A&M: Lose Greg Little to a SEC West School
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Texas A&M holds a commitment from the No. 2 player in the country, 5-star offensive tackle Greg Little. Although the 6'5" Texas native has been committed to the Aggies for an entire year, he has been open to hearing from other schools.
Alabama and Ole Miss have been the latest teams to grab the attention of Little, who visited both schools earlier this month. Losing an in-state star to another SEC West school would be awful for Texas A&M and the future of its offensive line.
Little remains committed to Texas A&M and plans to visit College Station later this summer, but his recruitment could be a dramatic one all the way until signing day. Losing a can't-miss lineman to a school it plays every single year would be brutal for this program.
9. Georgia: Let Most of the Top In-State Prospects Leave
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The state of Georgia once again has a ridiculous crop of prospects this year, and the Bulldogs hold commitments from three of the top 10 players in the state.
"Losing seven of top 10 prospects in-state would be a nightmare for Georgia," Bleacher Report's Sanjay Kirpalani told us. "The argument can be made they led at one point for most, if not all of these guys. In talking to a lot of those kids, they've pitched them on staying home and helping UGA get over the hump."
Georgia can't afford to let most of the uncommitted stars in its home state go elsewhere. Grabbing several more commitments from the Peach State—and keeping a hold of the ones who are already pledged to be Bulldogs—is crucial for Mark Richt and his staff.
8. Michigan: Strike out at LB
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Jim Harbaugh is off to a lightning-fast recruiting start in his first year at Michigan. But even with all the excitement surrounding the program and the satellite camp tour, Harbaugh and his staff haven't nailed down a commitment from a top linebacker—which is a position of huge need, according to Wolverine247's Steve Lorenz.
"Joe Bolden, James Ross and Desmond Morgan are all seniors, and the Wolverines struggled to replenish the position in the 2014 and 2015 cycles," Lorenz wrote. "Couple this with the fact that Michael Ferns transferred, Chase Winovich is now playing tight end and Noah Furbush has had a hard time staying healthy, and the Wolverines really need to hit a couple home runs in the 2016 class."
The Wolverines are in the hunt for 5-star Caleb Kelly and a foursome of other blue-chip linebackers, but they are said to lead for only one of them—borderline 3/4-star Florida native Jonathan Jones. Striking out on most of these linebackers would put a damper on the early parade in Ann Arbor.
7. Ole Miss: Fail to Add More Defensive Linemen
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Ole Miss' defensive line is stacked for the 2015 season, but several of those top players, such as former No. 1 overall recruit Robert Nkemdiche, are unlikely to return to Oxford for 2016. While the Rebels have a commitment from 4-star defensive tackle Benito Jones, they need more elite defensive linemen to join him.
Rashan Gary, the nation's No. 1 overall player, headlines a trio of defensive linemen who are listed as top targets for Ole Miss in this cycle. The battle for 4-star defensive end Jeffery Simmons will most likely come down to Ole Miss and Mississippi State, and the Rebels would hate to see a player of Simmons' size and skill join their bitter rivals.
In order for Ole Miss to keep being a contender in the SEC West, it has to reload its veteran defensive line with top-level talent. Losing all of its current recruiting battles for defensive linemen—and possibly a commitment from Jones to Alabama—would be a nightmare for Ole Miss.
6. Michigan State: Lose the DE Duo
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The cornerstones of Michigan State's red-hot recruiting class both committed earlier this month—4-star defensive ends Josh King and Auston Robertson. Both players are huge defensive line prospects who would fit perfectly into the system in East Lansing.
Now the Spartans have to make sure they keep the two stars' pledges all the way through the rest of this cycle.
Michigan, Notre Dame and Ohio State were all big players in the recruitment of King and Robertson, and they could re-emerge down the road as potential destinations for flips. Losing one of these top ends to a rival school would be a tough pill to swallow for Michigan State.
5. Alabama: Fail to Sign Most of Its 5-Star Defensive Targets
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Alabama's not holding down the No. 1 spot in the recruiting rankings is a strange sight, and so is seeing a group of Crimson Tide commitments without a single 5-star player.
But Alabama is in the hunt for eight 5-star players, and all but one of them play either on the defensive line or at linebacker. As Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee wrote in February, Alabama needs to constantly reload that stifling front seven each cycle as it's essential to the program's on-field identity.
Of those seven 5-star players across the front seven, Alabama is said to be the runaway leader for only one of them: in-state offensive linebacker Ben Davis. If the Tide fail to sign more than one of these elite defensive recruits, this class will fall well short of the standard that has been created in Tuscaloosa.
4. Miami: Another Year of Multiple Decommitments
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Miami got off to a blistering start in the 2016 cycle and has 21 commitments—the most of any major school out on the recruiting trail. While the Hurricanes still have several top players on their board, the biggest concern for the program is keeping all 21 committed to "The U," according to Bleacher Report's Michael Felder.
"The biggest need for Al Golden is to keep all of these guys in the boat," Felder said. "We saw them have some decommitments last year. I think this year, Al Golden's pressing need...is keeping guys committed until signing day."
A crucial part to keeping the class intact is keeping the staff intact. If the Hurricanes can't improve from a 6-7 record this season, Golden could be on his way out of Miami, and that would put this incredible recruiting class in jeopardy.
3. Ohio State: Lose One (or Both) of Its Highly Rated Committed RBs
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Ohio State leads the country in 4-star commitments, and its two highest-rated ones both play the same position—running back. Kareem Walker and Demario McCall are the top two backs in the country, and keeping both players will be crucial for the Buckeyes, who will probably lose star Ezekiel Elliott to the NFL draft after the 2015 season.
Of the two backs, Walker seems the most likely to flip. Although he told 247Sports' Bill Kurelic he is still "100 percent Ohio State," Walker has taken unofficial visits to in-state school Rutgers, Alabama and Auburn since he committed to Ohio State in January.
Losing one or even both parts of this elite running back combo would be a big blow to Ohio State's impressive 2016 class. Keeping Walker and McCall through signing day is a huge priority for Urban Meyer and his staff.
2. Florida State: Miss out on an Elite Defensive Lineman
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According to Tomahawk Nation's Bud Elliott, Florida State is looking to add four or five players from the defensive line in this upcoming class, "including at least two ends and two tackles."
The Seminoles hold commitments from three offensive linemen, but 4-star weak side defensive end Janarius Robinson is the only top-100 player of that group. Florida State is recruiting a trio of 5-star players at the position, and it would be bad news if none of the three decided to sign with the Seminoles.
This scenario seems highly unlikely at this point, as defensive end Shavar Manuel lists Florida State as his leader. But if Manuel, defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence and defensive end Nick Bosa all decide to sign elsewhere, Florida State's future in the trenches would be in less-than-ideal shape.
1. LSU: Lose a Chunk of In-State Talent to SEC Rivals
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LSU has the No. 1 class in the country right now, and it's highlighted by a star-studded tandem of defensive backs. The Bayou Bengals could easily close this cycle with the nation's top class if they just close the deal with several blue-chip recruits inside their own state lines.
Of the 19 players with 5- or 4-star ratings from the state of Louisiana, seven are committed to LSU. A nightmare scenario for LSU is if more than half of these in-state talents, including 5-star defensive tackle Rashard Lawrence and 5-star offensive tackle Willie Allen, decided to play their college football in the SEC West but not in Baton Rouge.
LSU is the presumed leader for several of the dozen still left on the board, but six of them are receiving votes for other schools in the Crystal Ball predictions. Alabama, Arkansas and Texas A&M are the biggest foes for this in-state talent, and the Tigers would hate if a large portion of it went to play against them week in and week out in the nation's fiercest division.
All quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports.
Justin Ferguson is an on-call college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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