Biggest College Football Locks of the Year for 2015
It's never too early to talk about the matchups that will make up the 2015 season. And when we talk matchups, we talk point spreads.
5Dimes has already posted spreads for many early-season games and a large portion of the big games that dominate the upcoming schedule.
A lot can change between now and the time all of these games are played, especially the ones that aren't until late November.
However, since these lines are out there, it's a good time to go ahead and get some of our favorite picks out there. Even though kickoffs are still weeks and weeks away, here are 10 "locks" for 2015, listed from the opening Thursday night of the season all the way until rivalry weekend.
Sound off on these early point spreads, and submit your own "locks" in the comments below.
North Carolina vs. South Carolina
1 of 10
North Carolina (+5.5) vs. South Carolina (in Charlotte)
North Carolina and South Carolina had two of the worst defenses in Power Five football last season, so, at first glance, this border war opening night of the season has the potential to be a shootout.
Yeah, about that. North Carolina definitely has the power to make that happen on offense. The Tar Heels return almost all of their offensive starters, including ace dual-threat quarterback Marquise Williams and their entire starting line. But South Carolina, on the other hand, returns just four offensive starters and didn't have an encouraging spring from the quarterback standpoint.
North Carolina's offensive firepower and overall experience are why I like the Tar Heels straight up in a neutral-site game in their home state. If new defensive coordinator Gene Chizik can get North Carolina to show some sort of improvement in Week 1, South Carolina won't be able to catch up on offense, even with a play-caller such as Steve Spurrier.
Georgia Tech vs. Notre Dame
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Notre Dame (pick 'em) vs. Georgia Tech
The Fighting Irish have been a divisive topic among college football fans this offseason. Even though it's coming off an 8-5 season and will have a new full-time starting quarterback in Malik Zaire, Notre Dame is still a trendy top-10 pick with the large number of starters it returns for 2015.
Georgia Tech, on the other hand, must replace all of its top skill players alongside star quarterback Justin Thomas. The leading backs and receivers are all gone from Paul Johnson's triple-option attack, and the Yellow Jackets defense gave up 6.58 yards per play away from home last season.
Thomas and the Georgia Tech offense might take some time to get back to their full potential this season, and their road trip against Notre Dame comes early. The Irish will already be battle-tested after games against Power Five foes Texas and Virginia. Take Notre Dame and its home-field advantage in this one.
LSU vs. Auburn
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Auburn (+3) at LSU
This is somewhat of a surprising pick, especially considering how much Auburn has struggled recently in Baton Rouge. Auburn's last win in Tiger Stadium came in 2000, when it doubled up the underdog Bayou Bengals in Nick Saban's first season with LSU.
However, Auburn's high-powered offense should give the visitors an advantage heading into LSU, who replaces several defensive starters and its coordinator, for this September matchup. And while the Auburn defense was abysmal last season, LSU's problems at quarterback—which are still there—made this the only SEC foe that Auburn dominated defensively in 2014.
Perhaps one of the biggest factors in this matchup is that it won't be a night game inside Tiger Stadium this year. With a less intimidating afternoon kickoff and a 41-7 victory in last season's meeting, Auburn would be an excellent road underdog pick.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Louisville vs. N.C. State
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N.C. State (-3) vs. Louisville
The Wolfpack have the potential to be a dangerous sleeper pick in the ACC this year thanks to their experience on both sides of the ball. N.C. State was playing some of the best ball in the country to close 2014, when it overcame a four-game losing streak in the middle of the season to finish with four wins in its last five contests.
Louisville, on the other hand, has to replace most of its key players on offense and defense heading into the 2015 season.
When N.C. State hosts Louisville, it should be clicking after four easy nonconference games to start the season. A home win against the Cardinals would help the Wolfpack make some major noise in the ACC. A blowout isn't in the cards, but a solid win by a touchdown or two looks more likely for this veteran squad.
Minnesota vs. Northwestern
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Minnesota (pick 'em) at Northwestern
Minnesota was a pleasant surprise in the Big Ten last season, rattling off a 9-4 record and finishing tied for second to rival Wisconsin in the Big Ten West. The Golden Gophers have to replace several top players on offense, but most of their defense returns in 2015 and looks to improve.
Even though Northwestern returns the same number of starters as Minnesota, the Wildcats are riddled with question marks after back-to-back 5-7 seasons. Northwestern only won two games at home last season—one against FCS opponent Western Illinois and a weird upset over Wisconsin.
Minnesota is trending up, while Northwestern continues to trend down. A lot can happen between now and this game in early October, but Minnesota is a great pick to win this one, even though it will be away from home.
Arizona vs. Stanford
6 of 10
Arizona (+10.5) at Stanford
This line leaps off the page—the defending Pac-12 South champion as a double-digit road underdog against a team that lost four conference games last season.
Arizona returns many of its top offensive playmakers from 2015, such as sophomore quarterback Anu Solomon and the dynamic receiving combo of Cayleb Jones and Samajie Grant. Then there's linebacker Scooby Wright, who had the best season of any defensive player in the country last season.
Stanford finished its 2014 season well after an up-and-down start on the offensive side of the ball. However, with a 10.5-point spread, take the star power of Arizona and the points for this cross-divisional clash in the Pac-12.
Michigan State vs. Michigan
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Michigan State (-4.5) at Michigan
Jim Harbaugh gets the luxury of playing both rivals Michigan State and Ohio State at the Big House for his first season at Michigan. However, recent history and the two teams on paper make the annual meeting with the Spartans look like a loss by multiple touchdowns.
While the Spartans return star quarterback Connor Cook and plenty of talent on both of their lines this season, the Wolverines offense will be a work in progress in Harbaugh's first season. Michigan State has won six of the last seven in this series, with its closest win coming in a 26-20 upset in 2009.
Michigan State should be a contender for the Big Ten and perhaps a College Football Playoff spot this season. A 4.5-point spread is too small between these two in-state rivals, especially for a midseason matchup.
Alabama vs. Mississippi State
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Alabama (-4) at Mississippi State
Sure, one team has its star quarterback back for 2015, but the large volume of talent Mississippi State has to replace around Dak Prescott makes this spread feel too small. The Tide have won their last seven meetings with the Bulldogs, with the closest win coming in last season's 25-20 matchup between two teams that were in the top five.
Barring an even more surprising run this season, Mississippi State shouldn't be in the top five heading into this matchup with Alabama in Starkville. According to Phil Steele, Dan Mullen's team is returning the least number of starters of all the SEC schools. Don't expect the Bulldogs to fall flat on their faces this year—especially with Prescott—but a step back from a historic 2014 looks likely.
Alabama has plenty of its own questions, but by the time this game is played on Nov. 14, the Tide should be playing their best football of the season. This game has the look of one that will be settled by a touchdown or more, even with Mississippi State's home-field advantage in Starkville.
TCU vs. Oklahoma
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TCU (-3) at Oklahoma
Last year's meeting between the Horned Frogs and the Sooners turned out to be one of the most thrilling contests of the season. This year, TCU will have the upper hand on Oklahoma again, even in Norman.
TCU's offense should be one of the nation's best again this season and will have already played 10 games by the time it rolls into town to face Oklahoma. If this game turns into a classic Big 12 shootout, the Horned Frogs have more offensive ammo and had great second-half success against the Sooners offense in 2014.
This contest could set up the unofficial Big 12 championship game against Baylor the following week, so TCU will be locked in and ready for a road victory. Style points for the playoff committee could also be a factor, and you can expect TCU to put up as many points as it can on an Oklahoma defense that struggled against great offenses in 2014.
Florida State vs. Florida
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Florida State (-2) at Florida
Big-time change is coming to Tallahassee this season. The Seminoles must replace a great number of NFL draft picks on both sides of the ball, including former Heisman-winning quarterback Jameis Winston.
But Florida State is still in much better shape than its biggest rival. New Florida head coach Jim McElwain inherits depth issues and a largely ineffective offense for his first season with the Gators, who have lost four of their last five games to the Seminoles after winning six straight from 2004 to 2009.
Both teams will undoubtedly improve as their respective seasons go on, but just a two-point advantage for Florida State's deep roster against this Florida squad seems extremely small. While McElwain might build Florida back up to make this a back-and-forth rivalry, this season will have its growing pains—like another loss to Florida State in its own backyard.
Justin Ferguson is an on-call college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
