2015 Fantasy Football Outlook for Indianapolis Colts Stars
General manager Ryan Grigson stocked more firepower on the offense, fueling an even brighter outlook for the Indianapolis Colts stars in 2015. Frank Gore will try to bring more balance to the league’s top-passing offense, featuring the explosive Andrew Luck to T.Y. Hilton connection.
The Colts' offseason moves indicate the front office wants as much talent as possible around Luck, expecting the team to continue to succeed overall by dominating on offense.
It’s an embarrassment of riches for head coach Chuck Pagano and offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, who are building on the league’s sixth-ranked scoring offense—second in standard fantasy.
If Indianapolis’ mix of youth and experience jells quickly, fantasy owners will enjoy a hefty returns.
Players are shown in ascending order from least to most valuable from a fantasy perspective in 2015.
Honorable Mention
1 of 10
Vincent Brown, WR
Indianapolis signed Brown off the street after the Oakland Raiders declined to re-sign the four-year veteran—which is a bad sign for his prospects in a great offense.
Vick Ballard, RB
Ballard is recovering from a season-ending knee injury in 2013 followed by a season-ending Achilles injury last offseason. The 2012 fifth-rounder out of Mississippi State will be limited to backup opportunities if he even makes the final roster.
Duron Carter, WR
Carter’s odds of making the final roster took a step back when the Colts drafted Phillip Dorsett in the first round, tweeted Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star:
"Could come down to him or Vincent Brown. It's a fair question given last night. https://t.co/x83fi7hkF9
— Stephen Holder (@HolderStephen) May 1, 2015"
Mike Wells of ESPN.com reported Cris Carter’s son knows this is his best shot at the NFL after blowing his college eligibility and spending two seasons in the CFL.
Josh Robinson, RB
Indianapolis drafted Robinson in the sixth round because Ryan Grigson believes his running style is a good fit, according to Kevin Bowen of Colts.com.
"The running style, he fits what we do. When you run that low to the ground and have that center of gravity, he’s a bowling ball, and that’s what they call him. To put up the yards he did in the SEC with a 6.3-yard average, that speaks for itself in that conference."
NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein compared Robinson to Mike Tolbert because of his size—5’8”, 217 pounds—and soft hands. The rookie could challenge Daniel Herron to back up Frank Gore.
Phillip Dorsett, WR
2 of 10
Ryan Grigson spent Indianapolis’ first-round pick on offense despite criticism, taking the speedy Dorsett out of Miami. The 5’9”, 189-pounder ran a 4.33 40-yard dash at the combine, adding yet another vertical dimension to Andrew Luck’s arsenal.
Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star tweeted Pep Hamilton expects Dorsett to contribute immediately:
"Pep Hamilton, asked if Dorsett can have immediate impact: "Absolutely. His play speed is exceptional...We can attack the field vertically."
— Stephen Holder (@HolderStephen) May 14, 2015
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Dorsett’s greatest impact will most likely come on special teams as a rookie, given the Colts’ expansive depth behind T.Y. Hilton and Andre Johnson. He projects as a dynasty reserve at best unless he leapfrogs Donte Moncrief for the third wide receiver position on the depth chart.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 20 receptions for 280 yards and one touchdown on special teams.
Dan Herron, RB
3 of 10
Herron came on at the end of 2014 after Ahmad Bradshaw broke his leg and Trent Richardson ceded playing time because of ineffectiveness. He only took over 12 carries in the divisional-round win against the Denver Broncos (23) totaling 4.2 yards per attempt in the regular season and playoffs combined.
The 2012 sixth-rounder of the Cincinnati Bengals showed pass-catching prowess as well, receiving nearly as many passes in three playoff games (20) as the entire regular season (21).
The Colts signed the Ohio State product through the 2015 season in April, so Herron faces a contract season as Frank Gore’s backup.
If he keeps Indianapolis’ RB2 spot through camp, Herron will be worth a handcuff for Gore owners and a reserve spot in dynasty leagues.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 150 carries for 630 yards and four touchdowns, plus 40 receptions for 280 yards and a touchdown.
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Donte Moncrief, WR
4 of 10
Moncrief seemed the obvious benefactor for more playing time after Indianapolis released Reggie Wayne in March.
Then the Colts signed Duron Carter from the CFL, Vincent Brown off the street and drafted Phillip Dorsett in the first round. It certainly isn’t clear anymore who will take WR3 in Indianapolis’ prolific passing game heading into training camp.
Chuck Pagano expects the 2014 third-rounder out of Mississippi to fight for opportunities in 2015, according to Steve Andress of Colts.com.
"He’s a competitive guy and he’s not afraid of any challenge. He’s not going to back down from any challenge. Having said that, that’s obviously going to factor in as we move forward, just his mindset. He’s a great competitor. He will go back and study all that tape and see what people did to him. He’s got such a high ceiling and room for improvement. The sky’s the limit for him.
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The second-year pro is currently coming off the board as a value reserve in the 16th round of standard-league drafts. Stash him on your bench as long as he wins the third wide receiver spot, with expectations of starting potential if he climbs further up the depth chart due to injuries.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 45 receptions for 644 yards and five touchdowns.
Coby Fleener, TE
5 of 10
All of the Colts’ acquisitions at wide receiver are bad news for Fleener owners hoping the offense would run primarily out of two-tight-end sets. It appears more likely Indianapolis will feature three-wide formations like it did 50.4 percent of snaps in 2014, according to Mike Wells of ESPN.com.
The 2012 second-rounder out of Stanford outperformed Dwayne Allen head-to-head in 2014, but Allen missed three games with an injured ankle suffered in Week 11, which hindered his performance.
Fleener tied Antonio Gates as the seventh-rated pass-catching tight end, according to Pro Football Focus. His subpar blocking dropped him to 36th overall. Given the Colts’ proclivity for passing this distinction shouldn’t be a problem, but the three-year vet is frustratingly inconsistent at times, leading all eligible tight ends in PFF’s drop rate for 2014 (h/t Bleacher Report’s Kyle J. Rodriguez).
It’s no wonder Fleener is practically going undrafted in standard leagues when proving unreliable in the one aspect of his game where he should be excelling.
He has the incentive of a contract year to improve in 2015, but Fleener stands a chance of getting lost in the shuffle. He shouldn’t be drafted as anything more than a speculative reserve with hopes he’ll maintain fantasy relevance in 2015.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 45 receptions for 585 yards and six touchdowns.
Dwayne Allen, TE
6 of 10
Allen was still rehabbing a high ankle sprain in May that hindered his performance down the stretch in 2014, he said in an interview on 1070 The Fan’s The Ride with JMV (h/t Colts.com’s Kevin Bowen). The 2012 third-rounder out of Clemson said he played at 70 percent in 2014, according to George Bremer of the Herald Bulletin on Twitter:
"Dwayne Allen said he played at about 70 percent last year. #Colts pic.twitter.com/piyhERUW0N
— George Bremer (@gmbremer) May 13, 2015
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Allen is the best all-around tight end on the Colts roster, matching Coby Fleener with eight touchdowns despite missed time and injury struggles. Pro Football Focus graded him ninth overall among tight ends in 2014, which bodes well for the three-year veteran’s contract negotiations heading into the final year of his rookie deal.
The key for Allen’s 2015 fantasy prospects is health. If he returns anywhere near 100 percent he’ll pay TE1-dividends to owners who merely spent an 11th-rounder to pick him up.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 45 receptions for 563 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Andre Johnson, WR
7 of 10
Johnson could not have landed in a better scenario when Indianapolis scooped him up off the corner after the Houston Texans released the All-Pro in March. The 34-year-old is expected to take a possession role with sleeker options in Phillip Dorsett, Donte Moncrief and T.Y. Hilton surrounding him.
The 12-year veteran’s yards-per-catch average dropped steadily from a highpoint of 15.1 in 2009 to 11.0 last season. He’ll compete with Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen for underneath looks, but Chuck Pagano expects the 6’3”, 230-pounder to continue to dominate matchups, according to Mike Wells of ESPN.com.
"He's a big body guy that can still separate, create separation. He's got a big catch radius. But again, the contested catches that you see on tape. It's very difficult to match up. There are few corners in the league that have length and size to match up but most are aren't on that size and they get pushed around a little bit. He's going to be able to bring that big, physical presence to us.
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Zak Keefer of the Indianapolis Star reported the future Hall of Famer feels recharged with the Colts.
"Like a breath of fresh air. The past two years have been pretty frustrating. [Andrew Luck] throws a great ball. He's probably the best quarterback I've ever played with."
Fantasy owners are high on Johnson’s prospects, taking him in the middle of the fourth. Odds are he will meet those expectations in 2015 despite all the targets vying for Luck’s attention.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 70 receptions for 910 yards and seven touchdowns.
Frank Gore, RB
8 of 10
Bidding wars rarely take place for 32-year-old running backs in today’s NFL, but that’s precisely what happened when the San Francisco 49ers couldn’t retain Gore’s services prior to the opening of free agency. The 11-year veteran toyed with the possibility of joining the Philadelphia Eagles before finally landing in Indianapolis.
Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area reported Chuck Pagano plans on using Gore as the Colts’ every-down back in 2015.
"Put the tape on him, and you still see the production. He’s a tough, hard-nosed, every-down back. He can play all three downs. He’s a great protector in pass-pro. He catches the ball out of the backfield. We all know what he can do as a runner on early downs. He loves football. He brings great passion. He brings great leadership and energy to our team and to our locker room. And he bolsters a position where we had a need.
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Pagano is still impressed with both Gore and Andre Johnson after OTAs as the former Miami Hurricanes teammates regrouped, according to Mike Wells of ESPN.com.
"Pretty seamless. They don’t miss a beat as far as the playbook goes, knowing what to do. Every time I see them in the huddle, break a huddle, to me it looks like they’re going the right direction. They’re lining up right. They’re very talented, talented guys. They fit right into the locker room. They’re professionals. Again, the résumé speaks for itself. They’re not talkers. They’re workers, they’re doers.
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It remains to be seen how Gore will adjust to running behind an average offensive line versus the top-five talent bulldozing in front of him for the 49ers last season, according to Pro Football Focus. But the Pro Bowler will have the advantage of a potent pass attack to keep defenses honest instead of the loaded boxes he’s faced the majority of his career.
Fantasy owners are currently drafting Gore at the end of the third, choosing younger options like Carlos Hyde and Melvin Gordon. Hyde and Gordon have more upside, but Gore will be a solid RB2 for owners looking at more stable options.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 220 carries for 940 yards and eight touchdowns.
T.Y. Hilton, WR
9 of 10
Hilton was the last of the four skill position players taken by the Colts in the 2012 draft—at the end of the third round—but he might be the first to leave. The unquestionable No. 1 receiver in a stacked lineup might fetch too hefty a price tag to keep paired with Andrew Luck—who will be due his own new contract after 2016.
Taking the Hilton-like Phillip Dorsett in the first round is an indication Ryan Grigson is preparing to move on if negotiations don’t work out this season.
"If they want to pay me, they'll pay me," Hilton said, according to Blake Schuster of the Indianapolis Star. "It takes both sides to come to an agreement. I leave that up to my agent and just go out there and have fun."
The three-year vet out of Florida International tied for 11th in fantasy scoring among wide receivers in 2014, along with Alshon Jeffery. His 16.4 yards per catch was rivaled by only DeSean Jackson (20.9) in the upper echelon of wide receivers.
Hilton graded 10th among his peers with positive scores in every category, according to Pro Football Focus. He’s not simply a product of Andrew Luck, although it helps to be the top target of the most pass-happy offense in the league.
The Pro Bowler is hanging around into the third round of standard fantasy drafts, making an excellent first or second choice at the position for owners taking running back(s) early.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 75 receptions for 1,162 yards and six touchdowns.
Andrew Luck, QB
10 of 10
Luck is the only high-ranking member of Indianapolis’ draft class of 2012 under contract this season thanks to the fifth-year option for first-round picks. The three-year pro out of Stanford made 2014 his best campaign so far, finishing first among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring (26.9 points per game).
He led the league with 40 passing touchdowns, a product of the Colts’ one-dimensional attack. He added three rushing touchdowns—tied for fourth among quarterbacks—finishing sixth in rushing yards with 273.
Luck also held the dubious distinction of finishing top five in interceptions (16) after holding his total to just nine in 2013. Defenses simply did not need to honor the run against the Colts due to Trent Richardson’s ineffectiveness and Ahmad Bradshaw’s season-ending injury.
The singular focus of the Colts offense is likely to regress more towards a balanced attack in 2015 with the addition of Frank Gore at running back. Pep Hamilton expects all the new personnel to help Luck “create paranoia” for opposing defenses, according to Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star.
"It's a situation where we can allow our quarterback to truly go through his progressions and not limit the progression to, 'Hey, we want to have this guy beat their weakest defender.’ That won't be the case at all. We should be able to create some matchup challenges for our opponents and hopefully we can continue to exploit those.
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It will also be in Indianapolis’ interest to slow the tempo with the ball to aid a below-average defense that was easily exploited by fine-tuned offenses in 2014.
All this adds up to a slight drop in Luck’s outrageous numbers last season, which the average fantasy owner doesn’t see coming considering his high-second-round price tag. He’ll probably finish a step behind Aaron Rodgers when the dust settles on 2015, but Luck will most certainly represent the elite status earned last season.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 4,400 passing yards for 33 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.
NFL statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference , fantasy stats provided by CBS Sports.com, fantasy draft projections courtesy of Fantasy Pros, contract and salary cap information provided by Over the Cap and h/t to Rotoworld for tweets and quotes unless otherwise noted.
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