Predicting Which 2015 NBA Free Agents Will Get the Craziest Contracts
While some deals made during the NBA free-agency period will be shocking or defy preexisting conventions, others will not be a surprise.
We know that Marc Gasol and LaMarcus Aldridge are going to sign massive, multiyear contracts, and there's a strong possibility they return to the Memphis Grizzlies and Portland Trail Blazers, respectively. Likewise, there's a better chance of the Philadelphia 76ers winning the 2015 NBA Finals—yes, 2015—than the San Antonio Spurs and Chicago Bulls failing to match max offers for Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler.
Those aren't the contracts we're interested in.
Instead, it's time to focus on the crazier ones. We're looking at relatively unheralded players who are going to sign ginormous deals, superstars who will do the unexpected/unconventional and non-scorers who could ink max contracts.
Every NBA offseason is filled with enough twists and turns that Daedalus would be proud. But 2015 will take things to that proverbial next level, as the recent television deal is expected to cause the salary cap to grow exponentially in 2016.
All of a sudden, one-year deals will be more common, while squads in need of quality players will be more eager to splurge on contracts that will only seem like big financial burdens for one season.
We're about to venture into uncharted waters.
DeMarre Carroll
1 of 8
Current Team: Atlanta Hawks
Position: SG/SF
Age: 28
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 12.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.2 blocks, 15.9 PER
Prediction: Four years, $56 million with New York Knicks
Throughout the regular season, DeMarre Carroll was a crucial piece for the Atlanta Hawks, even if he was the only member of the starting five who wasn't asked to participate in All-Star festivities. During the playoffs, he became even more vital to the team's efforts, scoring 20 or more points in six consecutive games and basically refusing to miss from outside the arc.
The postseason certainly helped boost Carroll's stock before a sprained knee in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals rendered him less effective, but it's not as if he needed to perform on a big stage to get recognition. That was already happening, and it's going to result in a massive payday for a 28-year-old wing player with a motivational backstory.
"Most definitely," Carroll said when asked by Marc Berman of the New York Post if he would consider signing with the New York Knicks. "When guys talk about playing in certain places, they talk about Madison Square Garden and Staples Center. Those two places. New York has a lot to offer, but at the end of the season, I'll let my agent do that. We'll keep our options, and hopefully it will work out for the best."
It appears increasingly likely that the Knicks will indeed be an option. They have appeal and plenty of money to spend as they seek to put more quality pieces around Carmelo Anthony and whomever they take with the No. 4 pick of the 2015 NBA draft.
As Berman writes in a later article, "Carroll is a versatile small forward who can savagely defend three positions, can shoot the three-pointer, get to the basket and, until recently, had been one of the league’s unsung players."
That combination of skills might be enough for him to keep increasing his price tag, to the point that only the cap-happy Knicks can afford him. Though $12 million is the number you often hear floating about, given the financial flexibility this franchise enjoys and the desire to add a piece before the cap rises, an extra $2 million per season won't be an issue in order to get the job done.
Danny Green
2 of 8
Current Team: San Antonio Spurs
Position: SG/SF
Age: 27
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 11.7 points, 4.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.1 blocks, 16.5 PER
Prediction: Three years, $36 million with Los Angeles Lakers
Danny Green is exactly the type of player who's going to benefit immensely from the expected salary-cap increase in 2016. It's less harmful to overpay for potential rotation stalwarts this offseason, because what seems like a big number right now—like $12 million per year in Green's predicted deal with the Los Angeles Lakers—will actually be relatively small 12 months from now.
The Lakers could sit back and watch the free-agency proceedings unfold this summer, choosing to hold on to their cap space for 2016. But as general manager Mitch Kupchak said earlier this year, per Bleacher Report's Howard Beck, "We don't have...the time to methodically and slowly build through the draft."
This may end up being Kobe Bryant's last NBA season, and that means the Lake Show could very well splurge on some underrated players such as Green, thus trying to move in the right direction quickly enough for the future Hall of Famer to have another shot at a deep postseason run.
Green is still only 27 years old, but he's been a vital part of San Antonio's success. Though he may not be a star, his ability to lock down an opposing wing for the entirety of his duration on the floor, as well as his potent marksmanship from all areas of the half-court set, make him quite valuable.
The Lakers need defensive stoppers. They need players who can knock down perimeter shots. And frankly, they just need bodies who are better than the incumbent options.
Green checks off all the boxes, and he has enough untapped upside that the Lakers could justify handing him a three-year, $36 million deal—just large enough for the Spurs to think twice about offering something similar, and choose instead to pursue other options.
Draymond Green
3 of 8
Current Team: Golden State Warriors
Position: SF/PF
Age: 25
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 11.7 points, 8.2 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.6 steals, 1.3 blocks, 16.4 PER
Prediction: Four years, $69.1 million with the Golden State Warriors
Yes, the Golden State Warriors are going to hand a player who scored only 11.7 points per game a max contract that pays nearly $70 million over the next four years. That in and of itself seems crazy, given the deals divvied out in recent NBA history. But it's actually quite justifiable, even if Draymond Green has struggled in the NBA Finals.
Let's forget about traditional stats. For Green, analyzing points per game is about as useful as measuring how many times he blinks during his average dribbling sequence from the left wing. Instead, we can turn to something all-encompassing, as ESPN.com's Ethan Sherwood Strauss did in January:
"Real plus-minus [RPM], which measures a player by how his team does when he's in the game, lists Green as the 10th-best player in the league. He’s first among wings, ahead of even LeBron James. Of course, Green isn't technically a wing this season; he's starting at power forward. But that ambiguity of position reflects the value he brings.
Against the Mavericks, he ably guarded Dirk Nowitzki and Monta Ellis in the same game. It's difficult to fit a player like this into a box.
"
We're no longer in January. The regular season has drawn to a conclusion, and Green still checks in at No. 6 on the RPM leaderboard, trailing only James Harden, Stephen Curry, Chris Paul, James and Anthony Davis.
My FATS model (based on historical comparisons and explained in full here) tells a similar story. It claims that the Warriors played like a 58-win team when Green was on the floor and a 40.2-win squad when he wasn't. Factoring in playing time, that means he added more wins than all but 10 players in the Association, despite his meager point tallies.
So again, he's going to get a max deal. Golden State isn't just going to let him walk.
Tobias Harris
4 of 8
Current Team: Orlando Magic
Position: SF/PF
Age: 22
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 17.1 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.5 blocks, 16.7 PER
Prediction: Four years, $54 million with Boston Celtics
In his end-of-season press conference, Boston Celtics general manager Danny Ainge was quite clear about the type of player he planned to pursue, as relayed by CelticsBlog.com's Kevin O'Connor:
"We often talk about transcendent players and stars, but I think the hardest skill to find in our league is guys who can score in the fourth quarter, the last six minutes of the game type of scorers. Usually the offensive patterns don't score baskets at that time—usually it's the individuals and the talent—and I think that's always a priority, regardless of need by position.
But those kinds of players are hard to find, and I think that Isaiah [Thomas] is our best at that right now. So it'd be nice to have one or two more of those before the season starts next year, and ideally at other positions.
"
Tobias Harris fits the billing, especially because he can fill multiple slots in the lineup.
As O'Connor writes, "Many speculate the Celtics will go after restricted free agents Tobias Harris or Khris Middleton, but Harris fares significantly better late in the fourth quarter and overtime, since his eFG percentage increases by 2.8 percent. On the contrary, Middleton's plunges by 7.8 percent."
Prying Harris away from the Orlando Magic will be tough. They can exercise the right of first refusal and match any offer sheet he signs during restricted free agency. However, Boston has the cap space necessary to make a gigantic offer before the television deal raises numbers in 2016, and it should be willing to do so.
"The belief is that the Magic would match almost anything under $13 million a season," Steve Kyler reported in late March for Basketball Insiders, and a four-year deal for $54 million exceeds that annual average.
Harris is only 22 years old and still shows tantalizing potential in many areas of the game. He'd be a perfect fit in Brad Stevens' schemes, able to space out the court and create offense from a non-guard position, and that should be enough to tempt the C's.
As will be the case with every deal signed this offseason, $13.5 million per season seems worse now than it will next July.
LeBron James
5 of 8
Current Team: Cleveland Cavaliers
Position: SF/PF
Age: 30
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 25.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, 7.4 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.7 blocks, 25.9 PER
Prediction: One year, $23 million with Cleveland Cavaliers (with a player option for 2016-17)
LeBron James is going to do exactly what he did last offseason.
No, he's not going to transition from the Miami Heat to the Cleveland Cavaliers once more. Don't be silly. Instead, he'll opt out of his current agreement and sign another short-term deal—staying with the Cavs, of course—that lets him play for one more year on a max contract before opting out again in 2016.
And it's perfectly logical.
James is good enough that he can be 100 percent certain he'll make as much money as possible whenever he wants to. Every franchise in the NBA would do crazy things to open up the necessary space for him—assuming he wanted to join them.
He might as well keep employing this strategy until the television deal causes a massive cap jump. And even then, he could justifiably keep traveling down the exact same path—signing one-year deals that allow for minor increases in his earning potential each summer.
This year, he could choose to remain in his current situation and make just under $21.6 million. Or he could opt out and sign for an expected $23 million.
What do you think he's going to do? That decision seems pretty obvious for the player who, as ESPN's Ryen Russillo brilliantly explained while filling in for Keith Olbermann, is making and changing the rules as he goes.
"LeBron has worked the system better than any player in league history," Russillo accurately posited to the camera. "And you know what? It's OK."
Kevin Love
6 of 8
Current Team: Cleveland Cavaliers
Position: PF
Age: 26
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 16.4 points, 9.7 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.5 blocks, 18.8 PER
Prediction: Five years, $100 million with Cleveland Cavaliers
"Fresh off his second season-ending injury in three years[...]the security of a long-term deal with Cleveland will entice [Kevin] Love to ignore the minor financial setback," Bleacher Report's Bryan Toporek wrote while predicting that a long-term Love deal with the Cleveland Cavaliers will be one of the offseason's biggest surprises.
At the risk of lessening the surprise, I agree.
There's been absolutely no indication that Love intends to play anywhere else. He's said and done all the right things throughout a tumultuous season, standing firm despite plenty of baseless speculation and media-driven conflict. That's not going to change during the hottest months of the year, even if marquee franchises like the Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers come calling.
"Love's maximum salary for 2015-16 would be in the $19 million range, far more than the $16.5 million player option. So why take the option?" Terry Pluto writes for the Plain Dealer. "The Cavs are expected to offer Love a maximum contract, worth an estimated $100 million for five years. Perhaps he takes that."
Most superstars will go down the LeBron James route, opting for shorter deals that increase their earning potential in the future. But Love will be the exception—the established All-Star who decides against the uncertainty of the future, hesitant to bet on himself after the pair of season-ending injuries.
And by doing so, he'll finally make the questions about his potential departure from Northeast Ohio come to a halt.
Khris Middleton
7 of 8
Current Team: Milwaukee Bucks
Position: SG/SF/PF
Age: 23
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 13.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.1 blocks, 15.6 PER
Prediction: Four years, $60 million with the Milwaukee Bucks
As Sean Deveney reported for Sporting News, Khris Middleton is going to get a shockingly large contract offer this summer:
"One league executive told Sporting News that Middleton will draw an offer around—brace yourself—$15 million per year. "That's what Chandler Parsons got, but this guy plays much better defense," the executive said. Parsons was granted a three-year, $46 million deal by the Mavericks last season to ensure the Rockets didn't match.
Now the Bucks have that dilemma, for a player who averaged 13.4 points a game this season but was their leading playoff scorer. All signs suggest they will match any deal he gets, and they have the space under the luxury tax line to do so.
But they will need to consider a future in which they have to pay [Michael] Carter-Williams, [Giannis] Antetokounmpo and [Jabari] Parker.
"
The Houston Rockets didn't match for Parsons, but the Milwaukee Bucks will for Middleton.
A versatile player who can line up at three different positions in convincing fashion, this Texas A&M product is only getting better on both ends of the floor. He's just 23 years old, put together a decent set of postseason performances (considering it was his first playoff venture and came against the Chicago Bulls) and looks the part of a franchise mainstay.
Normally, deals that brush up against the max-salary threshold are reserved for true stars. Middleton doesn't qualify as such quite yet, even if he was the Bucks' best player throughout the 2014-15 campaign.
But with the television deal we keep referring to set to push up the salary cap next offseason, the unofficial rules are changing quickly. Plus, Middleton, much like Draymond Green, is more valuable than the traditional numbers might indicate.
Per FATS, Milwaukee played like a 49.1-win squad when Middleton was on the floor, and that number plummeted to 31.1 when he was warming the pine. Not only is 18 wins a rather large swing, but factoring in his playing time indicates that he added more wins than all but 11 players in the entire Association, leaving him one spot behind Green on the overall leaderboard.
RPM? Middleton finished the year at No. 10—one spot under DeMarcus Cousins and two behind Green.
This former Aggie isn't just going to sign a big deal. He's going to make it look like a bargain in a couple of years.
Rajon Rondo
8 of 8
Current Team: Dallas Mavericks
Position: PG
Age: 29
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 8.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, 7.9 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.1 blocks, 13.5 PER
Prediction: Four years, $32 million with Los Angeles Lakers
Doesn't it seem inevitable?
While Bleacher Report's Kevin Ding suggested back in late April that this isn't actually a guaranteed move, he did make the case for the Rajon Rondo-Kobe Bryant pairing:
"A great point guard would help an aging Bryant economize his effort and game by feeding him in prime scoring position. It never came to fruition with the injury-prone Nash, but Rondo makes theoretical sense with his court vision—and disinterest in competing with Bryant for shot attempts.
Bryant's affection for Rondo goes well beyond that, of course. There are a lot of similarities: an alpha-dog attitude, desire to think the game, insistence on testing limits, even the mindset to play for big stats and new success in the regular season before playing to win in the playoffs.
"
According to Ding, the Lakers would be interested in this talented point guard, so long as the asking price isn't too high. After his disappointing play in 2014-15 for both the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks, they no longer view him as a "foundational piece," and acquiring one is a main goal of the offseason.
But handing a 1-guard with a resume as strong as Rondo's a contract that pays him an average of $8 million per year for the next four seasons isn't all that bad, considering the cap jump and Bryant's albatross of a deal soon coming off the books. Renouncing Carlos Boozer and Jordan Hill (after declining the latter's team option) would be necessary, but that's not exactly problematic.
After all, Rondo is still a quality player; judging him based purely on his stint with the Mavericks is as foolish as assuming he's going to turn back the clock to 2010.
Plus, let's assume that the Lakers have already inked Danny Green to the deal we set forth earlier. They'd have spent a significant chunk of their cap space, but they'd be going into the 2015-16 campaign with Rondo, Bryant, Green, Julius Randle and Jahlil Okafor/Karl-Anthony Towns working in the presumptive starting five.
Given the state of the organization the past few years, turning that down would be quite difficult.
All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from Basketball-Reference.com.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @fromal09.
