Which Conference Is Likely to Have Most Coaching Changes in 2015-16 Season?

Sometimes, El Nino hits college football's coaching carousel, and it just pours. In these instances, which come around every so often, it's not uncommon to see half of a conference (or more) experience coaching turnover within a year or two. 

Which conference is most likely to experience that kind of upheaval in 2015-16? It could be the ACC's turn. 

That prediction stems from the fact that the ACC could experience the two different kinds of coaching turnover—voluntary and involuntary—at the same time.

Coaches change jobs all the time, either by accepting positions at other universities or moving up to the NFL. Then, there are coaches on the hot seat who can't survive the year because of poor on-field performances or other factors, like NCAA violations or scandals. 

Of course, there are always coaches who retire, either expectedly or unexpectedly. 

It takes a perfect storm for a conference to experience so much turnover at once, but the conditions are in place for the ACC. Below is a list of coaches who could lose their jobs in 2015 if they fail to turn their programs around. Additionally, two coaches have been identified as potential candidates for other jobs. 

If all of those factors come together at once, here are the coaches that could be gone, for one reason or another, this time next year: 

Coaches on (or Near) the Hot Seat

Larry Fedora, North Carolina: To be clear, Fedora's "hot seat" talk is more of a whisper. As of June 11, 2015, Fedora's probably not in any immediate danger. But it's worth noting that the Tar Heels' win total has gone down in each of Fedora's three years—from eight to seven to six. A losing season would make things interesting regarding Fedora's future.

It seems like every year is "UNC's year," but 2015 might actually be it, according to Bill Connelly of SB Nation. Maybe. Possibly. With that in mind, another letdown could dramatically change Fedora's future. 

Al Golden, Miami (FL): The return of "The U" as the college football world knew it 20-plus years ago is a little bit like waiting for Godot. Golden's reputation as a program-builder was based on his excellent turnaround at Temple. To this day, in fact, the Owls are in a good spot and are even a trendy American Athletic Conference title pick.

The Hurricanes, however, haven't experienced any resurgence under Golden. In fact, the 'Canes had more players drafted (seven) into the NFL this year than total wins (six) in 2014. Golden has hit the recruiting trail hard for 2016, but it might take a divisional or conference championship to save his job. 

Mike London, Virginia: Last season, it looked at like London was finally turning things around for Virginia early on. Then, the Cavaliers lost five of their final six games and finished 5-7. London has had one winning season in five years with Virginia.

In this day and age, regardless of program expectations, that's a generous timetable for a head coach. There's no way London survives another losing season, and it's possible he won't survive a .500 one, either. 

Scott Shafer, Syracuse: Putting Shafer on the hot seat in Year 3 might be a touch too soon, but there was a pretty dramatic decline from Year 1 to Year 2. In 2013, the Orange went bowling and won seven games. Last year, that win total dropped to three. What does 2015 hold?

According to Chris Carlson of Syracuse.com, the Orange defense faces "the biggest rebuild in college football over the last six seasons." So there's that. If things go from bad to worse, it wouldn't be surprising to see Syracuse go in another direction.

Coaches Who Could Leave on Their Own

Jimbo Fisher, Florida State: Back in April, during an interview with Mike Florio of PFT Live, Fisher said he recently "had people inquire" about his interest in joining the pro ranks. So far, Fisher hasn't actively pursued any of those opportunities. However, Fisher did add, "I never say never." 

Fisher has a deep history in the college ranks and seems to enjoy the teaching process for 18- to 22-year-olds. That drives some coaches more than the bright lights of the NFL. But Fisher has won a national championship with the Seminoles. He certainly knows a thing or two about player development as well. There could be a day when he finds himself ready for another challenge. 

Bobby Petrino, Louisville: The Cardinals are in a far better place than when Petrino left for the Atlanta Falcons in 2007. Additionally, dozens of articles have been written over the past year about whether Petrino, whose reputation as a job-hopper with questionable ethics is well-documented, is a changed person. Ultimately, though, those two things might not matter.  

Timothy D. Easley/Associated Press

Petrino won nine games with Louisville last season and could match or surpass that total again in 2015. Two solid years with the Cardinals and Petrino could again be a name circulating through the coaching carousel. Would he leave Louisville again? It wouldn't surprise a lot of people if he did, especially if it's for a job in the SEC. 

For what it's worth, the Big Ten could see numerous firings if Illinois, Indiana, Purdue and Rutgers have bad seasons.

The key factor is coaches leaving. Who are the candidates? Mark Dantonio at Michigan State? Urban Meyer at Ohio State? Would Jim Harbaugh dare leave Michigan after one year, perhaps to return to the NFL? Meanwhile, the Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC don't have nearly as many coaches on the hot seat for 2015. 

The thing about the coaching carousel is that it is unpredictable. Who would have ever envisioned Bret Bielema ending up at Arkansas or Mike Riley going to Nebraska? 

But there are also indications that can lead us to believe a coach's shelf life at a school is more limited. That's all any of us can go off of during the month of June, anyway. 

Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand.