Ranking the Houston Rockets' Options at Point Guard for Next Season
The Houston Rockets banked their 2015 Western Conference Finals trip on James Harden's ability to simultaneously serve as their top scorer and distributor.
The Beard had the best statistical campaign of his career and finished second in the NBA MVP voting.
But the 25-year-old's offensive burden was heavier than it should have been. As entertaining as it was to watch him do everything, the fact that he needed to was equally unsettling.
The Rockets have to give their franchise face some backcourt assistance. Even Harden said he "definitely" wants to see Houston pick up a playmaker over the summer, via Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle.
"That's one of the conversations me and Daryl [Morey] are going to have (and) the coaches," Harden said. "That’s one of the pieces to add, but that's later conversations."
But how should Houston add it? That's the question we're out to answer here.
We are weighing every realistic offseason option in front of the Rockets to determine their best course of action. Talent is obviously a big part of this discussion, but so is the potential fit in head coach Kevin McHale's system and with the rest of the roster.
5. Maintain Status Quo
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The Rockets don't have to look for an external solution to this problem. Houston could retain its current point guard crop, though it's not quite as simple as it sounds.
Rookie Nick Johnson is the team's only point guard with a guaranteed contract for 2015-16. Patrick Beverley is slated to hit restricted free agency, while 37-year-old veteran Jason Terry is headed for the unrestricted market. Pablo Prigioni's $1.7 million salary is only partially guaranteed.
If Houston wants to keep everyone, that seems like an obtainable goal. None of these players should prove very costly—although it's possible someone throws Beverley an inflated offer sheet—and the Rockets will almost certainly have enough money to satisfy them all.
But how would Houston be helping Harden by bringing back all the players who couldn't lighten his offensive load this season? It wouldn't.
The Rockets fielded one of the league's least productive point guard groups this season: dead-last in points (14.8) and assists (5.1) per game, fifth-worst in field-goal percentage (39.3), via HoopsStats.com. Beverley can't create for himself or his teammates. Terry has always been more of a scorer than a passer, and neither he nor Prigioni brings much of anything to the defensive end.
Houston shouldn't let everyone go. Beverley, in particular, is a keeper at the right price. He's a tremendous defensive weapon to throw at scoring point guards, and he's a good enough long-range shooter to keep defenses honest.
But this isn't a topic worth discussing if everything is fine with the current point guard ranks. Even if the Rockets keep one or more of these players, they have to find some help from outside the organization.
4. Go Small-Game Hunting in Free Agency
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Fans know Rockets general manager Daryl Morey most for his marquee moves. He snagged Harden in the 2012 offseason, then signed Dwight Howard the following summer. Houston nearly lured in Chris Bosh last July, before the versatile big man circled back to the Miami Heat.
Morey dreams big, and the mentality has treated him well before. But the executive's best work during the 2014-15 campaign were his under-the-radar acquisitions: trading for Terry, Prigioni and Corey Brewer; signing Trevor Ariza and Josh Smith.
If the Rockets look to the free-agent market this summer, it probably won't result in a headline-grabbing move. Houston isn't exactly flush with cap space. The Rockets have at least $54.6 million committed to next season's payroll, plus a slew of their own free agents who could increase that pot.
Not to mention, there aren't many point guards worth major investments anyway.
Even the ones who are might not be available. Former Rocket Goran Dragic leads the group, but there is strong mutual interest between him and the Miami Heat, via Jason Lieser of the Palm Beach Post. Brandon Knight and Reggie Jackson are next on the pecking order, but both are restricted free agents who seem likely to return to their current clubs.
There's a pretty massive decline from that point. Rajon Rondo might be the next-best available, and he's coming off two of the worst seasons of his career. After him, it's basically backups and bench-filling bodies.
Houston could find value in the bargain bin. Spark-plug scorers Mo Williams and Aaron Brooks would be interesting additions. Former Rocket Jeremy Lin is reportedly still high on their radar, according to Bleacher Report's Howard Beck.
One of those names wouldn't be bad to supplement what they already have. But if the idea is to significantly upgrade their current cast, free agency doesn't look like the way to do it.
3. Find a Floor General in the Draft
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The Rockets hold two selections in the upcoming draft: Nos. 18 and 32. That's more than enough ammunition to address this need at the annual talent grab.
Unfortunately, neither selection is high enough to net Houston one of the 2015 class' top lead guards. Both D'Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay appear locked into the top six. There's been some buzz that Cameron Payne might have a promise from the Oklahoma City Thunder at the 14th pick, via ESPN.com's Chad Ford, and there's a chance he won't even fall that far.
Barring a trade to move up, Houston will almost certainly be choosing from the second tier of point guards. There's still talent to be found, but the Rockets seem more likely to wind up adding depth as opposed to a long-term starter.
Jerian Grant would make a lot of sense in Space City.
Dubbed an "NBA-ready distributor" with "promising defensive quickness and length" by Bleacher Report's Daniel O'Brien, Grant could be an effective role player out of the gate. He's a smooth scorer, a selfless table-setter and an instinctive defender. He should be a more potent offensive weapon than any of Houston's current point guards, though his shaky three-point stroke (31.6 this past season) might limit his effectiveness.
Tyus Jones and Terry Rozier could also be in the mix. The former is undersized and not the most athletic, but he has the talent to masterfully manage an offense. The latter is more of a combo guard and not a reliable long-range shooter, but he's an off-the-bounce scoring threat, pesky defender and active hustler.
Houston should take a flier on a first-year lead guard, but that alone won't scratch this itch.
2. Bring Sergio Llull Stateside
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Spanish point guard Sergio Llull is sort of an internal and external solution. He has never played a game for the Rockets, but they have owned his NBA rights since purchasing them from the Denver Nuggets in 2009. Houston might see a return on that investment in 2015-16.
"There is some fresh talk that next season—finally—Llull will give strong consideration to...playing Stateside," ESPN.com's Marc Stein wrote in March. "One well-placed source told me in Spain: There's a 'pretty decent' chance Llull agrees to sample the NBA next season."
McHale has made his desire clear he'd like to have Llull on the roster. "We'd love to bring over Sergio Llull from Spain," McHale said during an interview with Sports Talk 790’s Charlie Pallilo (h/t Max Croes from The Dream Shake). "Signing a Sergio Llull would be huge."
Houston has reportedly expressed a willingness to give Llull a three-year contract worth between $15 million and $18 million, sources told EuroHoops.net's Nikos Varlas. That's a fairly big gamble, but Llull just might be worth it.
"He's a really good pick-and-roll player," a Spanish League expert told Stein. "He takes and makes big shots. He's great in the open floor and very tough. He's a better athlete than you think, too."
The 27-year-old Llull averaged 15.0 points and 6.1 assists per 36 minutes in 63 ACB and Euroleague games this season. He has made more than 38 percent of his threes in four of the last six seasons.
Llull can play on the ball or away from it as a spot-up shooter. A good backcourt mate for Harden must be able to do both. A professional since 2005, Llull is far more seasoned than a typical rookie, which should help with his transition to the NBA—if he's finally ready to come.
1. Hit the Trade Market
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The Rockets have some attractive trade bullets left in the chamber. The No. 18 pick (acquired from the New Orleans Pelicans for Omer Asik) is a pretty good one. An up-and-coming big like Terrence Jones or Donatas Motiejunas is even better, especially since Houston may not have enough frontcourt minutes to help both players reach their full potential.
What could a package built around that pick plus one of these players fetch? Perhaps one of the league's most underrated players in Denver Nuggets point guard Ty Lawson.
Both Lawson and the Nuggets "are at least open to exploring Lawson's trade value," according to Basketball Insiders' Steve Kyler. The Rockets were one of three teams identified by Grantland's Zach Lowe as a potential Lawson suitor at the trade deadline.
Lawson is exactly the type of offensive threat Houston needs next to Harden. Three players have averaged at least 15 points and eight assists in each of the last two seasons. Lawson is one; perennial All-Stars Chris Paul and John Wall are the others.
Lawson is a terror in the open court, and the Rockets played this past season at the second-fastest pace. He's an expert navigator in the pick-and-roll, which holds obvious perks for a team with the hyper-athletic Howard manning the middle. Lawson's career 36.9 three-point percentage also suggests he'd be a good scoring threat away from the basketball.
The two years and $25.6 million left on Lawson's deal looks more than reasonable now. It will only grow more valuable once the salary cap balloons with the new TV money in 2016.
If Houston brings back Beverley and lands Lawson, the pair would be a devastating two-way tandem. The Rockets won't find a better answer to their point guard question than this. They just have to hope the Nuggets want what they can offer.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com. Salary information obtained via Basketball Insiders.
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