Matt Holliday's Injury Turns NL Central Runaway Back into a Race

Matt Holliday’s right quadriceps has opened the door in the National League Central.

The St. Louis Cardinals left fielder, who is the leading vote-getter for the All-Star Game at his position, hit the disabled list Tuesday after suffering a quad strain Monday night at Colorado. The injury occurred while Holliday, never a fleet-footed defender, chased a fly ball down the line. His cleat appeared to catch the turf mid-stride, sending him tumbling.

He immediately reached for his quad, and we immediately knew it was bad news for the Cardinals. Exactly how bad was still unknown at the time of the DL move, but the team later announced it was a Grade 2 tear. The timetable for Holliday to return is still unknown.

This is St. Louis’ third significant injury of the season. The club first lost ace Adam Wainwright to an Achilles injury in late April, a blow that will force him to miss the rest of the season. That was followed by Matt Adams’ quad strain in late May, which required surgery and is expected to keep him out up to four months.

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For context: Adams had complete tear, required surgery. Grade 2 means partial; Holliday will get 2 weeks to heal, re-evaluate #cardinals

— Derrick Goold (@dgoold) June 9, 2015"

Now it is Holliday, one of the anchors in the Cardinals lineup. He was hitting .303/.417/.421 with an .839 OPS. His OBP ranked fourth in the league at the time of the injury, and he was one of four St. Louis regulars with an OPS+ higher than 124, leading the lineup at 146.

To this point the Cardinals have absorbed their injuries and still hold the best record in the majors, partly because of a deep rotation, a stellar bullpen and, ironically, Holliday.

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Cardinals are 26-16 since Adam Wainwright was injured and 8-4 since Matt Adams went down. @Cardinals

— Richard Justice (@richardjustice) June 9, 2015"

The trend could stop at Holliday’s injury, though. The Cardinals have been winning with great pitching, a good defense and just enough offense to get them over the hump.

The rotation started Tuesday with the best ERA in the league (3.02), the highest strand rate (77.5 percent) and the highest WAR (6.3), according to FanGraphs. The bullpen has been just as impressive, leading in ERA (2.03) and strand rate (85.5) and putting up the second-best WAR (2.4).

The fielding is also among the best in the league in terms of defensive runs saved, ultimate zone rating and overall defensive rating, according to FanGraphs.

The offense is a different story.

St. Louis is a high on-base club (.326, third in the NL) but a low slugging one with a .126 isolated slugging percentage that is 12th in the league and 25th in the majors, per FanGraphs. Part of the reason is the Cardinals do not hit the ball over the fence. They were 12th in home runs but first in doubles (110) in the NL at the start of play Tuesday.

Losing Holliday, arguably their best all-around offensive threat and No. 3 hitter, puts a significant dent into those numbers. And that might finally be enough to make the Cardinals, a team seemingly capable of overcoming injuries year after year, vulnerable to the next tier of the division.

“You hate to say with the Cardinals that they are done because every time they have one of these major losses, they seem to rally and come out of it,” Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal said on MLB Network on Tuesday. “But this is a little bit different. This is your No. 3 hitter for a team that ranks 10th in the National League in runs per game. That’s below-average.”

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

The Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates went into Tuesday trailing St. Louis by 6.5 games in the Central, and given Pittsburgh’s plus-40 run differential, the third best in the league, it has to be seen as a serious threat.

The Pirates, though, lost an opportunity to win a series against an inferior team to start the week, losing their first two against the Milwaukee Brewers at home. That is the start of a relatively soft stretch as the Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago White Sox follow. All those teams are below .500.

The Cubs have a tougher stretch immediately ahead, but their starters seem up for it. Over the last two weeks (entering Tuesday), the rotation has the fifth-lowest ERA in the league (3.76), the fourth-lowest expected FIP (3.21), the best strand rate (78.7 percent) and the second-highest strikeout rate (8.73), per FanGraphs.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals are baseball’s best home team with a 22-7 record at Busch Stadium. But they are in the midst of a stretch of 15 road games—they are 16-13 on the road through Monday—out of 20 games from June 4 through June 25.

They have also won 11 of their previous 15 heading into Tuesday, so they could be ripe for a slight correction just based on the law of averages and the loss of Holliday.

Now seems like a prime time for the Pirates and Cubs to strike. The Cardinals are hurt again and playing away from home. The Pirates are better than each team they play for the next week-plus, and the Cubs are pitching up to expectations.

If the Cardinals are going to take another injury blow and continue to roll in the NL Central, it will be on the strength of their pitching and defense, as has already been the case this season.

The next two to four weeks will put that formula to the test with their best hitter absent.

All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.