5 NBA Teams That Are 1 Move Away from Entering the NBA Title Conversation
The 2015 NBA Finals showcase the difficulty of making a championship run.
The Golden State Warriors needed a rare break from the injury bug plus career years from several key players to survive the gauntlet out West. The Cleveland Cavaliers had to...well...have their franchise located a stone's throw from LeBron James' hometown of Akron.
Since the planet's best player doesn't feel a gravitational pull to any other franchise, every other team has to go the Warriors' route. In a nutshell, the recipe calls for copious amounts of internal development, savvy external additions (via the draft, trades and free agency) and a generous serving of good fortune.
That combination is hard to find, but there are a handful of teams close to striking the right mix. Just one move—minor or major—could thrust them into the title race.
That obviously means they can't be there yet. So any club that held a top-five ranking in either net efficiency rating or point differential, marks that typically show a team's true strength even better than overall record, won't be eligible for this list. Neither will a perennial contender like the Oklahoma City Thunder, who were only derailed this season by injuries.
Also, these have to be moves the clubs can realistically make. Any franchise could climb the ladder by trading for an otherworldly talent like Anthony Davis or Kevin Durant. But since those deals aren't happening outside of the fantasy realm, we're not going to entertain them here.
All set on the particulars? Good, let's break out the crystal ball, see who could leap into the 2015-16 championship picture and break down how they could get there.
Houston Rockets: Finding a Franchise Point Guard
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The Houston Rockets are sitting on the cusp of championship contention. The fact they found themselves in the 2015 Western Conference Finals would suggest they've already joined that exclusive club.
But they're still not quite where they need to be. They held very good—but not elite—rankings in both net rating (tied for sixth) and point differential (seventh). Their playoff run was on the brink of extinction before the Los Angeles Clippers squandered a 3-1 series lead.
Houston was also far too reliant on MVP runner-up James Harden, who accounted for 26 percent of the team's total points and more than 31 percent of its assists. When the Beard caught a breather, the Rockets offense did too. It averaged 14 fewer points per 100 possessions when he wasn't on the floor.
Starting point guard Patrick Beverley is slated to hit restricted free agency. His dogged defense is an asset, but he's essentially a spot-up specialist at the opposite end. His 3.4 assists per game ranked 34th among the 46 guards who averaged at least 30 minutes a night.
Harden needs some playmaking help. And he's planning on discussing that need with Rockets general manager Daryl Morey, per ESPN.com's Calvin Watkins.
Houston lacks the financial flexibility to go big-game hunting in free agency, but it could still find a difference-making point guard in the trade market. Both Ty Lawson and the Denver Nuggets seem "at least open to exploring Lawson's trade value," according to Basketball Insiders' Steve Kyler.
Lawson would be a tremendous get for Houston. He could lighten Harden's offensive load, would be a tremendous pick-and-roll partner with Dwight Howard and should form a great offense-defense platoon with Beverley. If the Rockets could get Lawson for the 18th pick and either Terrence Jones or Donatas Motiejunas, they would launch themselves into the title picture.
Miami Heat: Adding an Instant-Offense Shooter
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The Miami Heat have some serious housekeeping to do before turning their attention outside the organization.
Dwyane Wade, Goran Dragic and Luol Deng can all opt out of their deals this summer. Those three made a combined $32.2 million last season, and each could be eyeing a raise for his next contract. Considering Miami already has more than $42 million in guaranteed money committed to the 2015-16 payroll without them, the Heat could be short on funds before they go free-agent shopping.
But if they bring back the aforementioned trio, they could be well on their way to crashing the championship party. Those three, Chris Bosh and Hassan Whiteside would form one of the NBA's most well-rounded starting lineups.
Still, the Heat would have to ensure there's something worthwhile behind their starters. They were 28th in bench scoring this season at 26.6 points per game, per HoopsStats.com. Injuries factored into that rating—Miami trotted out a franchise-record 31 different starting groups—but the reserve unit is woefully short on reliable sources of offense.
Miami could address that need a couple of different ways.
The Heat have the No. 10 draft pick and could invest it in a microwave shooter like Devin Booker. They could dangle versatile forward Josh McRoberts on the trade market and see what it would take to fetch someone like Toronto Raptors swingman Terrence Ross. Or Miami could go bargain hunting in free agency for a long-range specialist such as Gerald Green, Wayne Ellington or Marcus Thornton.
These aren't needle-movers on their own (though Booker could be down the line), but the Heat shouldn't need a major change if they retain their key pieces and get them healthy.
New Orleans Pelicans: Getting a 3-and-D Wing
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The New Orleans Pelicans just made their first playoff appearance in four years. And their postseason run finished almost as quickly as it started, in an opening-round sweep by the Finals-bound Warriors.
So what could possibly give New Orleans a puncher's chance at the 2016 crown? The supreme knockout power of Anthony Davis.
The 22-year-old's first performance on the postseason stage was nothing short of spectacular. He torched Golden State's top-ranked defense for 31.5 points per game on 54.0 percent shooting then overstuffed the rest of his stat sheet with 11.0 rebounds, 3.0 blocks, 2.0 assists and 1.3 steals per game.
He's a superstar in every sense, and that alone makes the Pellies a dark-horse title threat. If they can get healthy and see a positive impact from new offensive-minded coach Alvin Gentry and top defensive assistant Darren Erman, they could be ready to make major noise in the second season.
But they desperately need to find a swingman who provides both lockdown defense and perimeter shooting. Dante Cunningham brings the former without the latter; Luke Babbitt does it the other way around. Quincy Pondexter fills both roles at times, but he doesn't do either one consistently.
Free agency might be the only way to scratch that itch. New Orleans parted with its first-round pick to pry Omer Asik away from the Rockets. And the Pelicans don't have the depth to trade away one of their key contributors.
New Orleans should have some wiggle room under the salary cap regardless of how it handles its own free agents. A best-case scenario would bring Khris Middleton to the Big Easy, but Danny Green and DeMarre Carroll are more realistic targets. Put either one in a Pellies jersey, and this team could take a significant step forward next season.
Toronto Raptors: Upgrading the Power Forward Via Trade
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How close are the Toronto Raptors to title contention?
On one hand, the Raptors established franchise records for wins in each of the last two seasons (48 then 49). On the other, this group hasn't turned either of those campaigns into anything more than one-and-done playoff appearances.
Its offense is incredibly potent but not powerful enough to cover its weaknesses. Toronto finished this campaign ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency and tied for 18th in rebounding percentage.
The Raptors need to bolster their frontcourt. Free agent Amir Johnson hasn't been able to shake a nagging ankle problem, and Patrick Patterson has been a change-of-pace reserve over his five-year career.
Toronto has to find reliability at the 4, and that won't be easy to get with the 20th overall pick. While the Raptors aren't carrying many high-dollar contracts, they have a lot of free agents whom they either need to pay or replace.
Solving this interior issue will likely require a trip to the trade market.
The Chicago Bulls may not have enough frontcourt minutes to keep Taj Gibson, Nikola Mirotic, Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah all happy. Gibson is the "likeliest trade candidate," according to Grantland's Zach Lowe, and he should be at or near the top of Toronto's wish list. The Raptors should also keep their eyes on Denver Nuggets forward Kenneth Faried, who would rather be dealt than sit through a rebuild, according to Kyler.
Raptors swingman Terrence Ross seems like the right trade chip to get the conversation started. Increase that offer with prospects and/or picks, and the Raptors might find their missing puzzle piece.
Washington Wizards: Landing a Stretch 4
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The Washington Wizards need to make their move sooner rather than later.
While they have a young nucleus in John Wall, Bradley Beal and Otto Porter, the basketball clocks are loudly ticking for nearly every other rotation player. Paul Pierce, who has a $5.5 million player option for next season, turns 38 in October. Marcin Gortat and Nene are both on the wrong side of 30.
Washington needs to aggressively position itself to climb the Eastern Conference ladder. The first step of that process should entail emphasizing a three-point attack that powered the Wizards into the conference semis. After averaging only 6.1 threes on 36.0 percent shooting during the regular season, they bumped those numbers to 9.4 and 40.3, respectively, in the playoffs.
Having more shooting is always a good thing in today's pace-and-space game. And adding a big man with three-point range would carry an extra benefit for the Wizards.
"It would also open up space for Wall to operate," wrote Bleacher Report's Fred Katz. "Wall is best when he's dribbling around ball screens and darting at the rim. In order to do that, he needs guys around him to spread the floor so he can groove in the paint as he sees fit."
Free-agent forward Paul Millsap would be a dream addition, but the Wizards can't afford him without shedding a significant salary. If free agency is their preferred path, a low-cost shooter like Jonas Jerebko could fit the bill.
Washington could also use the 19th overall pick to scratch this itch. Face-up bigs Bobby Portis, Frank Kaminsky and Kevon Looney should all come off the board near that selection.
The Wizards have options. Playing them right could lift this franchise from up-and-comer to full-fledged contender.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com. Salary information obtained via Basketball Insiders.
