2015 Fantasy Football Outlook for Green Bay Packers Stars
All 11 of last season’s starters return on offense, forming a strong foundation for the Green Bay Packers’ stars to achieve even more success. A healthy Aaron Rodgers leads Jordy Nelson and Eddie Lacy into what is certain to be another stellar fantasy football performance in 2015.
Although head coach Mike McCarthy orchestrated the league’s No. 1 scoring offense—third in standard fantasy—he turned over play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Tom Clements after the season.
Clements began as quarterbacks coach in 2006, so he and Rodgers have a longstanding relationship and expect continued improvement in 2015, according to Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com:
"We’re going to have the same offense. We're going to run the same plays. We're going to tweak things here and there. Mike met with him a lot last year. I'll meet with him. I'll be in meetings with him throughout so that when we reach game day, we're on the same page. So I don't think much will change.
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No offense is as likely to maintain or advance as the Packers in 2015. Their core fantasy contributors will reward owners handsomely for recognizing such a favorable outlook.
Players are shown in ascending order from least to most valuable from a fantasy perspective in 2015.
Honorable Mention
1 of 7
Ty Montgomery, WR
Green Bay drafted Montgomery in the third round in April. The Stanford product is perceived to be a gadget player akin to Cordarrelle Patterson and will contribute immediately in the return game, according to Lance Zierlein of NFL.com.
Jared Abbrederis, WR
Abbrederis is a local favorite from the Wisconsin Badgers who missed his rookie season with torn ACL. The 2014 fifth-rounder appeared in OTAs and generated quite a bit of buzz, but it’s hard to decipher what’s real and what’s hoped for when it concerns a hometown pick.
If he avoids the practice squad, then it will be as a special teamer and/or reserve wide receiver. He has little to no fantasy value in 2015.
Alonzo Harris, RB
We’re definitely not talking about Denzel Washington’s bad-cop character in Training Day. This Alonzo Harris joins the Packers as an undrafted free agent from the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns.
Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com reported Harris carefully considered eight offers before settling on Green Bay:
"Of course, I'm not just going to go sign a contract blind. Me and my agent and my high-school coach, we all did research. Teams my agent told me about, we wrote them down and did research on them. Other teams had several [running backs] in the mix. Dallas had about three or four as well as Green Bay. So that's what it really came down to. I really felt this was the best position.
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Mike McCarthy would like three halfbacks on the active roster, per Demovsky, which means Harris must beat out fellow rookie John Crockett and Rajion Neal to avoid the practice squad.
John Crockett, RB
Crockett generated more interest than Harris after going undrafted; he told Demovsky he lost count of teams offering him contracts after 20. He must be partial to green and gold.
The 6’0”, 217-pounder posted 2,419 all-purpose yards as a senior starter for the four-time FCS champion North Dakota State Bison.
Pencil him in as the favorite for Green Bay’s third running back position behind Eddie Lacy and James Starks.
Jeff Janis, WR
Janis is running with the first-team in OTAs, according to Bill Huber of the Packer Report on Twitter:
"McCarthy on Janis: Came on at end of last year. Needs to work on fundamentals, like most young players. Good for confidence to be with 1's.
— Packer Report (@PackerReport) June 2, 2015"
McCarthy likes what he sees in Janis’ development, according to Tyler Dunne of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: “Jeff Janis has definitely been moving forward. I thought he definitely came on last year. Still some things fundamentally he needs to work on but any time you get reps with the 1's and Aaron Rodgers, it definitely boosts your confidence.”
Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel expects the 2014 seventh-rounder from the Saginaw Valley State Cardinals to secure the fourth wide receiver spot.
Andrew Quarless and Richard Rodgers, TE
The Packers offense devalues tight end as a passing option so much that it doesn’t matter who sees more action between Quarless and Rodgers; neither will be fantasy relevant enough to be anything more than a reserve.
The pair combined for 49 receptions, 548 yards and five touchdowns in 2014, which is dismal fantasy production.
James Starks, RB
2 of 7
Starks embodies what coaches and general managers are looking for in a capable replacement, averaging 4.3 yards per carry off the bench over the past five seasons. He’s mentally tough enough to be productive without needing reps to find a rhythm, which seems to hamper so many reserves.
As such he is one of the most valuable handcuffs in the league, especially considering the elite level of Green Bay’s offense.
Starks is a must-own for Lacy owners and a solid reserve otherwise in standard leagues.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 100 carries for 440 yards and three touchdowns, plus 20 receptions for 150 yards and a score.
Davante Adams, WR
3 of 7
Adams remains Aaron Rodgers’ third wide receiver option with Randall Cobb returning to the Packers. His 2014 output as WR3 was the second worst in the Aaron Rodgers era in terms of standard fantasy scoring:
| Player | Strts | Tgts | Recps | Yards | TDs | Points |
| Jordy Nelson '11 | 9 | 96 | 68 | 1,263 | 15 | 216.3 |
| Randall Cobb '12 | 8 | 104 | 80 | 954 | 8 | 143.4 |
| Jarrett Boykin '13 | 8 | 83 | 49 | 681 | 3 | 86.1 |
| James Jones '09 | 3 | 62 | 32 | 440 | 5 | 74.0 |
| Jordy Nelson '10 | 4 | 64 | 45 | 582 | 2 | 70.2 |
| Davante Adams '14 | 11 | 66 | 38 | 446 | 3 | 62.6 |
| Jordy Nelson '08 | 2 | 54 | 33 | 366 | 2 | 48.6 |
It was a disappointing start for the second-round pick from the Fresno State Bulldogs, the ninth wide receiver taken in the much-heralded class of 2014. Then again, 2014 was an anomaly for rookie pass-catchers, as explained by Greg A. Bedard of SI.com.
Viewing Adams' rookie campaign from a more optimistic perspective, it’s promising he started more games than any of his third-option counterparts from seasons past. He finished third on the team in targets, which is a trend likely to continue in 2015.
As such, he makes a great late-round flier who could see increased opportunities in an elite offense. He's a must-own in dynasty leagues.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 50 receptions for 600 yards and five touchdowns.
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Randall Cobb, WR
4 of 7
Cobb chose rings over money, re-signing with the Packers before hitting a lucrative open market. The Pro Bowler settled for four years, $40 million, as he shunned better deals on the open market, according to ESPN's Andrew Brandt via ESPN.com’s Mike Rodak.
"Randall Cobb is a prime example. I know for a fact—I'm pretty tied in with his situation—he left a lot of money on the table," Brandt said. "And I knew it was going to be hard to pry him away from Green Bay. It's a system he liked; he knows he's playing with the best quarterback."
The four-year veteran flourished in his first complete season as a starter, finishing sixth in fantasy scoring among wide receivers. He graded ninth at the position, according to Pro Football Focus.
Mock drafters are picking Cobb at the end of the second in 12-team standard leagues. He’s the 10th receiver off the board, which is justifiable at such a talent-packed position. Although Cobb is a top-10-worthy fantasy wide receiver, he is still the second option in Green Bay's offense behind Jordy Nelson.
Cobb (71.6) caught a higher percentage of passes to Nelson (64.9) but for less yardage, as one should expect from a slot receiver.
Draft Cobb late in the second as a dependable WR1; just don’t reach over the likes of Nelson, A.J. Green or Alshon Jeffery for his services.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 90 receptions for 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Aaron Rodgers, QB
5 of 7
Rodgers believes the transition of play-calling from Mike McCarthy to assistant head coach Tom Clements should be smooth, according to Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com:
"Tom and I have a great rapport from the years we spent as quarterback to quarterback coach. He's in all the meetings, so I don't think there will be a big change there. I think they have to iron out who's going to be down on the field, who's going to be up in the box, who's going to be looking at the pictures with the quarterbacks on the sidelines between possessions. This is Mike being a ball coach and wanting to just maybe do more, as he can work now with the special teams and with the defense, as well as still being around the offense.
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Demovsky also reported Rodgers will likely increase his input in plays and game planning, which isn’t a great departure from previous seasons, per Clements.
"Obviously, he's a veteran and he has a lot of experience and he has thoughts during the week and during the game. And we try to take all input."
The result should be a similar-looking offense to 2014’s, which resulted in Rodgers’ second NFL MVP trophy. The 31-year-old finished second in fantasy scoring among quarterbacks, missing out on the top spot due to a late-season calf injury.
Rodgers said “it took a couple months” for the injury to fully heal, according to Demovsky. His rushing attempts per game dipped below three (2.7) for his first season as a full-time starter.
He could always be counted on for some bonus points in the run game, but chances are that advantage is in the rearview mirror—as it should be.
Owners who take Rodgers tops among quarterbacks shouldn’t want the effective passer to take too many chances with his legs.
Oh, did I mention the All-Pro should be the first QB off the board? That’s right: Trust Rodgers over Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees to finish the season atop the scoring list.
He’s a great pick from the tail end of the first round through any position in the second. Owners are drafting him 18th, five spots behind Luck.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 4,500 yards passing, 35 touchdowns and six interceptions.
Jordy Nelson, WR
6 of 7
Mike McCarthy categorized the offseason hip surgery preventing Nelson from participating in OTAs as minor, according to Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: “He had some postseason work done. He'll be fine in a couple of weeks. I've seen him. I'm trying to think if it's six-to-eight weeks, but really he should answer that. But it's nothing serious.”
Lori Nickel of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported Nelson mostly dodged questions about the surgery, but he did echo McCarthy’s assessment back in March.
“Obviously, if it didn’t bother me, I probably wouldn’t have had surgery,” said Nelson. “But nothing major. Just an opportunity to get some things cleaned up. We did it and I think it was a good move and I feel good with where we’re at, moving forward.”
With concerns about the seven-year veteran’s health safely tucked away, fantasy owners can speculate on what is likely the zenith of Nelson’s Pro Bowl career.
He finished 2014 tied for second in fantasy scoring among wide receivers with Demaryius Thomas, averaging 14.3 points per game. Pro Football Focus rated him second among wide receivers with an even or positive grade in every category.
It’s incredible to consider what he has accomplished, only to see owners pass on him until late in the second round. Nelson’s production is as close to a guarantee as it comes in fantasy football, so if he falls to 20th or lower, he’s an absolute steal.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 105 receptions for 1,600 yards and 15 touchdowns.
Eddie Lacy, RB
7 of 7
Lacy continues to develop into such an awesome all-purpose back that it’s amazing that every team passed on him at least once in the 2013 draft. The Pro Bowler finished sixth in fantasy scoring among running backs last season.
Mike McCarthy told Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel Lacy’s development in the passing game was a preseason focus in 2014.
“I really felt that last year's conversation was more important than this year's, the ability to make a huge jump from Year 1 to 2, being a three-down player, that was something we stressed from Day 1, and I thought he delivered.”
Lacy finished sixth among running backs with 427 receiving yards on 42 receptions. Pro Football Focus rated him sixth overall, second in the passing game behind only Le’Veon Bell.
Fantasy owners are drafting Lacy third behind Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles, when Bell should be the only back drafted ahead of the 25-year-old.
If you have the top pick in the draft and can’t stomach Bell’s suspension, choose youth and opportunity over track record with Lacy.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 1,125 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, plus 50 receptions for 525 yards and five touchdowns.
NFL statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference, fantasy stats provided by CBS Sports.com, fantasy draft projections courtesy of Fantasy Pros, contract and salary-cap information provided by Over the Cap and h/t to Rotoworld for tweets and quotes unless otherwise noted.
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