Tigers' Recent Nosedive Raising Alarms but Not Panic Time Quite Yet

Remember how the Detroit Tigers were playing at the beginning of the year, when they started 11-2 and seemed to have the American League Central in their pocket?

If you can picture the exact opposite of that, that's how the Tigers have been playing more recently. And while that doesn't quite make it panic time, it definitely raises a few alarms.

After getting swept in a four-game series by the Los Angeles Angels in Anaheim, a 7-5 loss to the Oakland Athletics at Comerica Park on Thursday afternoon sealed a three-game sweep. That's a seven-game losing streak, the likes of which ESPN.com's Jayson Stark noted Detroit hasn't seen in some time:

In the process, the Tigers have dropped their record from a perfectly respectable 28-20 to a considerably less respectable 28-27. That puts them five games behind the Minnesota Twins for first place in the AL Central, and actually closer to last place in the division.

"Sometimes this game offers different challenges," second baseman Ian Kinsler said after Thursday's loss, via Shawn Windsor of the Detroit Free Press. "Right now we're in the middle of one. When you are playing like this, everything is under a microscope. We have to be better at flushing and getting ready for the next (moment)."

He's right, but this also isn't about just a bad seven-game streak. Since running their record to 23-14 on May 16, the Tigers have dropped 13 out of their last 18. And it's no fluke that they have, as their run differential in this stretch is an ugly minus-31.

That's what can happen when your key weaknesses get exposed. The Tigers' lineup lacks a consistent hitter outside of Miguel Cabrera. Their starting rotation is painfully hit or miss outside of David Price and Alfredo Simon. And though the Tigers' much-maligned bullpen has been better, there's plenty of volatility outside of the Joakim Soria, Joba Chamberlain and Alex Wilson trio.

In all, it looks bad. And according to the computers, it is bad. Here's CBS Sports:

"

To put a finer point on it, the Tigers, per FanGraphs, opened the 2015 season with a 51.6 percent chance of making the playoffs...The day before their current losing streak started, the Tigers had a 72.9 percent of making it. Now? After seven straight losses, they have a 34.0 percent chance of making the postseason for the fifth consecutive year.

"

In so many words: Detroit's sudden fondness for losing has cut its playoff odds in half. In the parlance of our times, that's no bueno.

But as we said earlier, it's not quite panic time for the Tigers. There's a lot of season left, and their hope meter is far from empty.

Carlos Osorio/Associated Press

If there's a big bright side the Tigers can turn to in this time of woe, it's the fact that they play in the American League. In this particular season, that means they're part of a fight that they're never going to be out of.

That boils down to the American League being a mess. As poorly as the Tigers have been playing, there are still only six games separating them from the top of the league. They are also only 0.5 games out of a crowded wild-card chase, which should remain that way all year along.

Likewise, the AL Central hardly has an insurmountable look, either.

The Tigers may be gazing up at the Twins and Kansas City Royals, but they must also know that both are flawed teams in their own right. That might be especially true of the Twins, who are either this year's Baltimore Orioles (h/t David Laurila of FanGraphs) or just plain lucky to be there.

Of course, the Tigers obviously need to play better in order to get back in the race. They can't just keep losing games and hope that the rest of the league sinks to the bottom with them. According to everything, that's not how this works.

But that leads us to another big bright side: The Tigers have some reinforcements en route.

Carlos Osorio/Associated Press

One is veteran right-hander Justin Verlander, who's missed the entire season recovering from a triceps injury. He made his first rehab start last week and could be back in the Tigers rotation in no time. When he is, that could mean a much-needed boost.

Maybe that sounds like taking too much for granted, given that Verlander is coming off a meager 4.54 ERA in 2014. But the advanced pitching metrics agree he deserved better than that, and he may actually be able to collect on the good luck that he was denied last year. One thing he'll have in 2015 is a good defense, as Baseball Prospectus says the Tigers have moved from 29th to ninth in defensive efficiency.

While Verlander could soon stabilize Detroit's rotation, Victor Martinez and Alex Avila could soon return to lend a hand in the Tigers offense. The word from Shawn Windsor of the Detroit Free Press is that Martinez could return from a knee injury next week, and that Avila is also making progress from his own knee injury.

There's admittedly only so much the Tigers can hope to get from Martinez, as the left knee that put him on the DL is the same left knee that was surgically repaired over the offseason and that badly dragged down his production as a left-handed batter. 

Windsor did pose, however, that the Tigers miss Martinez's presence just as much as they miss his bat. And there might actually be something to that, as the Tigers have gone from scoring 4.4 runs per game with him to 3.2 runs per game without him. 

As for Avila, he's not much of a hitter. But he's not bad at finding his way on base, as the .342 OBP he has this year ranks eighth among catchers with at least 70 plate appearances.

Carlos Osorio/Associated Press

Last but not least, hard-throwing reliever Bruce Rondon is also nearing his return from biceps tendinitis. He still has much to prove as a big leaguer, but his triple-digits fastball could give Detroit's bullpen the strikeout pitcher that it sorely needs. With a collective 6.7 K/9 rate, only Twins relievers have struck out batters at a smaller rate than Tigers relievers.

All this considered, here's some free advice: If you're thinking of writing off the Tigers, don't.

There's no question the Tigers are a flawed team. But they also happen to play in a division and a whole league that are loaded with flawed teams, and we should at least see how they look at full strength before deeming them too bugged to live.

Odds are it won't be as pretty going forward as it was in the beginning for the Tigers. The odds are equally good, however, that things won't be as ugly as they've been recently.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference unless otherwise noted/linked.

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