2015 Fantasy Football Outlook for New Orleans Saints Stars
Shocking trades leave behind a fresh outlook for the New Orleans Saints stars on offense. Everything still runs through Drew Brees, but Mark Ingram will carry a larger workload, while Brandin Cooks looks to step up after a promising rookie year.
The Saints offense turned in another elite performance under head coach Sean Payton, finishing ninth in points and first in yards—fourth in standard fantasy scoring. But the team struggled as a whole, finishing 7-9 for the second time in three seasons.
General manager Mickey Loomis chose to parlay Jimmy Graham’s success and Kenny Stills’ potential to strengthen the defense and the running game. Payton told Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk the initial shift will be difficult, but ball control is the new philosophy in New Orleans.
“From a bigger picture standpoint, you’re wanting to play better defense or reduce the amount of points needed to win a game,” Payton said.
Find out how the Saints’ new game plan impacts the fantasy football outlook for new, upcoming and existing talent on offense.
Players are shown in ascending order from least to most valuable from a fantasy perspective in 2015.
Honorable Mention
1 of 9
The competition for the Saints’ third wide receiver position is stacked after New Orleans declined to take a wideout in the draft.
Josh Morgan, WR
New Orleans signed Morgan in May, according to Pro Football Talk on Twitter:
"Per source, Saints have signed veteran WR Josh Morgan, who had a tryout this weekend at minicamp.
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) May 17, 2015"
The seven-year journeyman enters the fray as the veteran long shot.
Seantavius Jones, WR
Larry Holder of the Times-Picayune tweeted Jones saw plenty of work with the first team in OTAs:
"Brandon Coleman and Seantavius Jones made notable receptions. Used a lot with the ones.
— Larry Holder (@LarryHolder) May 28, 2015"
The Saints signed the undrafted free agent from the Division II Valdosta State Blazers. Nolan Nawrocki of NFL.com projected him as a possession receiver, which sets Jones up behind Brandin Cooks.
Brandon Coleman, WR
Coleman is mentioned interchangeably with Jones in terms of buzz at New Orleans’ OTAs. Nawrocki projected the Rutgers product as a third- or fourth-rounder in 2014, but the Saints landed the 6’6”, 225-pounder as an undrafted free agent.
He could be the heir apparent to Marques Colston if he develops.
Joe Morgan, WR
Nick Underhill of the Advocate believes Morgan sits at “the top of the heap” in the WR3 competition.
The four-year veteran missed the 2013 season with a knee injury and spent most of 2014 inactive or suspended before New Orleans released him in December. The Saints then signed him off the street in April, according to NFL Media’s Ian Rapoport on Twitter:
"This is stunning: The #Saints have re-signed WR Joe Morgan, who they cut last year. Second chance for a talented player
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) April 3, 2015"
Morgan showed flashes in limited opportunities throughout a tumultuous start with the Saints. He brings some dynasty value simply because he is too talented to ignore.
If he wins the WR3 spot, he should be taken late as a reserve in redraft leagues.
Nick Toon, WR
2 of 9
Toon is the favorite to win New Orleans’ open WR3 position heading into the summer. The 2012 fourth-rounder out of Wisconsin is the only prospect in the mix the Saints actually spent a draft pick on.
At 6’4”, 218 pounds, the three-year veteran can step right in to the position vacated when the Saints traded Kenny Stills to the Miami Dolphins. New Orleans used Stills as a low-volume vertical threat in 2013 when he finished sixth on the team in targets.
As such, we should temper expectations for Toon even if he solidifies a starting role in the Saints' powerful offense. He’ll be a must-own in dynasty formats but nothing more than a late-round reserve in redraft leagues.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 30 receptions for 450 yards and three touchdowns.
Khiry Robinson, RB
3 of 9
Robinson entered the offseason with the possibility of becoming the lead running back along with Pierre Thomas, since unrestricted free agent Mark Ingram seemed too expensive to retain.
But New Orleans shuffled the deck at other positions enough to re-sign Ingram and bring in C.J. Spiller, making Thomas expendable and Robinson an affordable RB3.
The 2013 undrafted free agent from the West Texas A&M Buffaloes showed lead back promise in spotty opportunities over the past two seasons. At 6’0”, 220 pounds, Robinson could shoulder the load if Ingram gets injured—he missed 14 games through his first four seasons.
Robinson must be owned in dynasty leagues and makes an interesting reserve in redraft formats, especially handcuffed to Ingram.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 100 carries for 450 yards and four touchdowns.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Josh Hill, TE
4 of 9
Hill is in one of the rare fantasy situations to potentially go from an afterthought in 2014 to a must-start just one offseason later.
Obviously, his opportunity began when the Saints shockingly traded Jimmy Graham to the Seattle Seahawks. The Saints passed on taking a tight end in a weak 2015 class, making the 2013 undrafted free agent from the Idaho State Bengals the sudden starter.
Sean Payton tipped his hand regarding how high his expectations are for the third-year tight end, according to Mike Triplett of ESPN.com:
"This Josh Hill is another player that I love. I love. When you look at his runs, jumps, height, weight, speed, you look at his measurables -- and he didn’t go to the combine, thank God.
When you really look at the film and watch him, if I told you this guy was our third-round draft pick, you’d be excited now. We’ve just got to get that little jersey off his back that says, ‘I came here as a free agent.’ I think we feel like he's got a bright future.
"
Ben Watson might eat into a bit of Hill’s opportunities, but he’s expected to be a blocker primarily.
The Saints also worked out Jermaine Gresham on June 3, and Payton believes he’d be a good fit, according to Joel A. Erickson of the Advocate. Gresham is still on the street as of this posting.
It would be ridiculous to expect Hill to step right into an All-Pro’s shoes, but his five touchdowns on 14 catches in 2014 demonstrates Drew Brees’ trust in the tight end's ability when it counts.
Hill should be drafted as a low-end TE1 in 2015. He projects as a solid value considering he’s still on the board with the TE2s in the 12th round on average.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 50 receptions for 550 yards and eight touchdowns.
Marques Colston, WR
5 of 9
New Orleans restructured Colston’s remaining two seasons under contract to soften the expense as the 32-year-old’s returns diminish. There’s no doubt Drew Brees is happy with the result, given his season-ending quote from ESPN’s Mike Triplett (h/t John Hendrix of Fansided’s Who Dat Dish):
"He's a special guy. You could not ask for a better teammate, a better person, a better guy to come to work with every day. He's done it for nine years the exact same way. I’m tellin’ ya, there's not a more consistent player or person. One of the greatest teammates I've ever had the chance to play with.
"
Colston finished 2014 second on the team in targets (100) behind the now-departed Jimmy Graham (125). He’ll probably finish second again in 2015 behind a healthy Brandin Cooks.
The nine-year veteran struggled in 2014, finishing seventh in drop rate, according to Pro Football Focus. The poor effort soured fantasy owners on Colston’s prospects in 2015, with an average draft position in the 10th round.
Colston should be viewed as a reliable reserve option with flex potential depending on the matchup. He’s a great value in the 10th round for standard-sized leagues.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 65 receptions for 910 yards and five touchdowns.
C.J. Spiller, RB
6 of 9
The Saints signed Spiller to reinvigorate a struggling passing game out of the backfield. Marques Colston said the offense failed to replace Darren Sproles’ role in 2014 on the 97.5 The Fanatic’s Ron Jaworski Show (h/t: Katherine Terrell of the Times-Picayune):
"When you lose a guy that has produced at that high of a level and don't have an immediate replacement planned for him, you're going to struggle at times when those crucial situations when you know exactly the matchup you're going to get, the look you're going to get and what you're going to get out of that player. When you don't have that, and it's kind of an unknown, it kind of makes game planning that more difficult.
"
Pierre Thomas and Travaris Cadet combined for 83 receptions out of the backfield last season, while Sproles caught 71 alone in 2013. Sean Payton praised Spiller’s work in OTAs in a June 4 press conference posted to New Orleans Saints.com:
"He’s got a unique skill set, he has good speed. He’s someone that understands what to do in the passing game and I think he’ll provide versatility.
It’s up to us to find ways…to get him the ball in space. He’s also someone in the return game I think can be a factor for us.
"
Given the investment New Orleans made in Spiller and the importance of an accomplished pass-catching running back in Payton’s offense, the five-year veteran will be a solid RB2 in points-per-reception formats. His draft stock is nine places higher among running backs in PPR versus standard-scoring.
Spiller should be taken as a flex in standard formats, with plenty of upside if Mark Ingram is sidelined for a game or two—Ingram missed 14 games in four seasons.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 100 carries for 500 yards and three touchdowns, plus 60 receptions for 420 yards and two touchdowns.
Brandin Cooks, WR
7 of 9
Cooks surprising but streaky rookie campaign was cut short by a season-ending thumb injury in Week 10. The first-rounder out of Oregon State led all rookies with 53 receptions before suffering the injury.
Cooks told Ross Jones of FoxSports.com he had “been cleared for three weeks” in mid-January.
Drew Brees worked with Cooks this offseason and is excited about his new No. 1 wide receiver, according to Mike Triplett of ESPN.com: "Man, I love everything about him, his makeup, and then just his physical ability. I mean he's got all kinds of talent."
The 5’10”, 189-pounder ran a 4.33 40-yard dash at the combine and should move seamlessly to the outside from the slot.
Cooks is a projected fourth-rounder with desirable upside in such a prolific offense. He makes a trustworthy WR2 who is poised for a breakout year.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 85 receptions for 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns.
Mark Ingram, RB
8 of 9
News about Ingram missing practice time at OTAs should be familiar to former and future owners. Sean Payton insisted the foot/ankle issue was minor, according to Mike Triplett of ESPN.com: “There’s nothing significant. It’s this time of the year where we’re smart about what we’re doing.”
Although Ingram missed 14 games during his first four seasons, the Saints brought him back on a four-year, $16 million extension that includes $6.1 million guaranteed—good for 10th in guaranteed money to running backs.
Ingram earned the raise as New Orleans’ lead back in 2014. He averaged 4.3 yards per carry and scored nine touchdowns in nine starts. He finished 15th in fantasy scoring among running backs, averaging 12.4 points per game over 13 appearances.
He graded 12th among running backs in the rushing category, according to Pro Football Focus.
The Pro Bowler is going in the late third round on average, a reasonable position given his upside and injury concerns. Target Ingram in the mid-to-late third round ahead of Carlos Hyde and Melvin Gordon because the Saints offense is superior and he’s proved he can produce in the NFL.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 250 carries for 1,125 yards and 10 touchdowns, plus 35 receptions for 200 yards.
Drew Brees, QB
9 of 9
Sean Payton denied rumors regarding Brees and his shrinking future with the Saints, according to Darin Gantt of Pro Football Talk:
"We can’t control it. What do you do when there’s no truth to any of it? There’s not one iota [of truth]. So if someone’s written something like that, it’s either been taken out of context completely or just fabricated. I think we’re in an age where we’re seeing a lot of speculative reporting, as opposed to a story.
"
Still, New Orleans did trade away assets in the passing game (Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills) to shore up the running game (Max Unger) and defense (Dannell Ellerbe, Stephone Anthony and P.J. Williams).
Drafting Colorado State Rams quarterback Garrett Grayson in the third round only fueled the fire, but Katherine Terrell of the Times-Picayune reported general manager Mickey Loomis doesn't plan on replacing Brees anytime soon.
“I don't see the end for Drew Brees on the short term horizon, at least I certainly hope not," Loomis said. "It does take time for these quarterbacks to develop, and we're conscious of that.”
Brees did not seem concerned about Grayson, according to Nick Underhill and Joel A. Erickson of the New Orleans Advocate.
Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk asked Payton how Brees felt about losing Graham in the passing game: “Now our job as coaches is to find additional targets. We feel like we got one in C.J. Spiller, who’s a completely different position but nonetheless a playmaker when the ball is in his hands.”
Brees came across unfazed, according to Evan Woodbery of the Times-Picayune: "You can't dwell on who you don't have. I love Ben Watson and Josh Hill, and I feel like they can make a big impact for us."
Brees owners shouldn’t want the 36-year-old All-Pro leading the NFL in pass attempts heading into his twilight. It means his production will most likely dip below the upper echelon of fantasy quarterbacks, but the 14-year veteran is still a solid QB1.
If faced with a choice between Brees and his younger double Russell Wilson, take Wilson in a changing of the guard.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 4,125 yards for 28 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.
NFL statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference, fantasy stats provided by CBS Sports.com, fantasy draft projections courtesy of Fantasy Pros, contract and salary cap information provided by Over the Cap and h/t to Rotoworld for tweets and quotes unless otherwise noted.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
