2015 NBA Free Agents: 5 Reclamation Projects Teams Should Gamble On
Once upon a time, Boris Diaw and Danny Green weren't crucial to extending the San Antonio Spurs' dynasty. They were NBA misfits—projects deemed to have hit their ceilings and earned a spot among Association footnotes and cautionary tales.
Then they found the Spurs. And the rest is gravy.
Now, ahead of 2015 free agency, knowing how valuable below-board finds can be, we have to ask: Are there any such reclamation projects waiting to be scooped up this summer?
While attempting to unearth these potential offseason steals, the degree to which players are considered "projects" will vary. Not all cases will be considered hopeless or on the verge of playing themselves out of the NBA. Some will, by their own standards, actually be on the rise.
Our goal is to find players who haven't even come close to meeting the expectations set for them upon entering the NBA, or who have flashed promise in the past, only to ebb back into relative obscurity.
Someone like Rajon Rondo, for instance, wouldn't qualify. His star status is under scrutiny, but he has yet to be written off at any point in his career.
Each and every selection does need to have measurable potential at this level. We're not throwing darts at pictures of random free agents and then manufacturing hope. There has to be valid reasoning behind why these players, however cheap or costly, are not only worth another contract, but are also capable of making a positive impact on good teams.
Statistics, past season performances and, in some instances, draft-day status will be the forces that empower us. Though flaws will be acknowledged, the focus is on marketable attributes, from skill sets to the numbers they generate.
Let us now go where some teams won't, but where other teams totally should.
Al-Farouq Aminu (Player Option)
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Al-Farouq Aminu will never live up to his draft-day hype. That's the burden of being selected eighth overall in 2010, ahead of Gordon Hayward and Paul George, and then bouncing around the NBA as its version of a utility infielder.
But Aminu is still on track to get handsomely paid this summer after a semi-successful stint with the Dallas Mavericks.
At 6'9", he can man either forward position and provides a mixed bag of defensive tricks. Though Houston Rockets players actually shot at above-average clips when being defended by him in the first round of the playoffs, he proved effective when chasing rival wings off the three-point line.
Aminu also banged in 62.5 percent of his catch-and-shoot treys through that five-game set with Houston, a marked improvement from the 28.4-percent clip he posted during the regular season.
Of the eight Mavericks to log at least 50 minutes of action in the first round, not one recorded a higher player efficiency rating. Impressive still, Aminu statistically improved Dallas' defense by leaps and bounds when on the floor during the regular season, posting the highest net rating of anyone who finished 2014-15 on the roster.
Correct, in more than 1,300 minutes of court time, Aminu notched a better net rating than Tyson Chandler, Dirk Nowitzki, Chandler Parsons and any other (active) Maverick you feel like naming.
And that's not all.
Alan Smithee goes into further detail for Mavs Moneyball:
"Aminu posted career-bests in several metrics, such as PER, win share rate, and real plus-minus. In terms of defensive real plus-minus, Aminu ranked sixth in the league at his position, finally capitalizing on his elite length, quickness and leaping ability. Aminu was asked to guard every position on the court with the exception of center, and demonstrated lockdown potential as a man defender. Even better, Aminu has become one of the best help defenders and defensive playmakers the Mavericks have had in years, as his block-rate led all small forwards, and his steal rate was fifth among small forwards.
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Coming off a career campaign, Aminu will have no shortage of suitors. And while there's still work to be done—he's yet to post a regular-season PER of 15—he's still only 24.
Some team, be it the Mavericks or not, could strike offseason gold by banking on Aminu becoming more than a one-hit wonder.
Andrea Bargnani
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New York Knicks fans might beg to differ.
Twenty-nine other teams don't have the same pessimistic, soul-squishing motives. None of them—not even the Toronto Raptors—spent $21.9 million and a 2016 first-round pick on watching Andrea Bargnani appear in 71 games over the last two seasons.
Nine years removed from being drafted first overall and finally free from a financially paralyzing eight-figure salary, Bargnani has a chance to start over for real.
Bargain-bin shoppers with playing time to spare have every reason to give him that fresh start.
Bargnani leaves a ton to be desired as a No. 1 option. He's a defensive liability and wrongfully portrayed as a floor-spacing big. After nine seasons, his teams are also a combined minus-3.1 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor.
Still, his offensive skill set remains intriguing. Especially with today's NBA calling for bigs such as himself to do more than live in the post.
Though Bargnani's three-point shooting is a hot-and-cold affair, he does have that type of range. He has connected on more than 37 percent of his treys three times and is drilling 35.6 percent of his long balls for his career.
There's also something to be said about his off-ball work. Most of his buckets come off assists, and he found nylon on 46.3 percent of his spot-up opportunities in 2014-15.
Indeed, he's a defensive sieve. Opponents shot 45.2 percent on three-point attempts when he was in the vicinity last season. He's not quick enough to guard fellow stretch towers, and even his post-up defense—his presumed "strength"—is a mess; opponents shot 48.7 percent with their backs to the basket against him in 2014-15.
Slot Bargnani alongside a legitimate rim protector—something neither the Knicks nor Raptors ever truly did—and he can function as a secondary offensive option who drains threes off the catch and occasionally flashes off-the-dribble competence.
At the very least, that's enough residual upside for cash-strapped teams to take a flier.
Chris Copeland (Qualifying Offer)
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Chris Copeland is (still) instant offense.
The 31-year-old parlayed a surprise 2012-13 showing with the Knicks into a multiyear deal with Indiana Pacers. Head coach Frank Vogel then proceeded to bury him on the bench, even when the Pacers lost both Paul George (leg injury) and Lance Stephenson (free agency) for the 2014-15 crusade.
Vogel admittedly did increase his playing time at first, handing him 16.6 minutes per game (a career high) through 50 contests, before abandoning the experiment altogether. And Copeland failed to impress when given the opportunity, shooting just 36.1 percent overall and 31.1 percent from deep, both of which are career lows.
But 2012-13 wasn't that long ago. Copeland banged in 42.1 percent of threes while with the Knicks, showcasing his value as a stretch 4 and someone who, on occasion, could create space off the dribble and with his back to the basket.
A fraction of that momentum even followed him to Indiana. He averaged 20.8 points on 47 percent shooting per 36 minutes with limited playing time in 2013-14, shining as a complementary scorer.
To wit: Not only did Copeland nail 41.8 percent of his long balls in his first season with the Pacers, but he converted 43.9 percent of his standalone bombs. Even as he struggled throughout 2014-15, he still managed to shoot nearly 35 percent in those situations.
Copeland did have surgery on his left elbow and abdomen after being stabbed outside a New York City nightclub in April, but he was in good spirits and expressed optimism immediately after the fact, per Vigilant Sports' Scott Agness.
Spot-up lethality is something with which contemporary offenses can work. The Pacers elected to use Copeland at small forward more often than not, failing to adequately utilize his outside touch and deceptively nimble ball-handling work.
Another team that's apt to running small and shooting threes has ample cause to bet on him returning to his 2012-13 roots.
Ed Davis (Player Option)
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When Ed Davis signed a two-year deal worth less than $2 million last summer, you knew the Los Angeles Lakers were getting a steal—a work in progress, but a steal nonetheless.
You also knew he wasn't going to finish the life of that deal.
Davis owns a player option for 2015-16 and fully intends to test the open market. As he told reporters during his exit interview, per the Los Angeles Daily News' Mark Medina: "I'm hoping for a long-term deal. I'd love to return here. I know this will turn around eventually."
Returning to Los Angeles seems like a long shot at this point. Owners of the No. 2 pick in this June's draft, the Lakers are locks to end up with either Duke's Jahlil Okafor or Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns, both of whom are best suited at the 5.
Toss in Julius Randle's presumed return to the floor, and head coach Byron Scott will have his fill of space-sapping players in the middle.
Finding a new home won't prove difficult for Davis, though. He's working off a career season—albeit one that saw him headline a 21-win Lakers faction—and his per-36-minute line remains an attention-grabber.
Here's the list of every player to average at least 12.5 points, 11.5 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per 36 minutes minutes in 2014-15 while also logging at least 1,800 total ticks:
- DeMarcus Cousins
- Pau Gasol
- Rudy Gobert
- Andre Drummond
- DeAndre Jordan
- Jonas Valanciunas
- Ed Davis
Not too shabby for someone who spent the previous four years riding pine with the Memphis Grizzlies and Raptors.
Plus, Davis not only led the Lakers in win shares with 6.3, but he also more than doubled the total of his closest in-house competition (Jeremy Lin, 2.7). The soon-to-be 26-year-old also made strides as a rim protector; opponents shot 5.6 percentage points below their season averages when going up against him inside six feet of the hoop.
What remains to be seen is whether Davis can make pivotal contributions to a team that matters, hence his project status. But his value to a Lakers squad that didn't matter is nothing if not enough for good teams to give him that chance.
Royce White
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Royce White is ready to make an NBA return.
Nay, he's determined to make an NBA return.
"I don't even believe in that, in case it doesn't work out," he said of his comeback attempt failing, per KSTP.com. "It's gonna work out, it's gonna work out."
Both the Chicago Bulls and New Orleans Pelicans are willing to facilitate his comeback, according to Shams Charania of RealGM. White has also received NBA Summer League invites from the Los Angeles Clippers and San Antonio Spurs, per KSTP.com.
Said interest seems like a bit much for someone who has just three regular-season tilts under his belt and hasn't played in the NBA since March 26, 2014. But White's skill set is that intriguing.
In his only season at Iowa State—where he played for Fred Hoiberg, who now coaches the Bulls (just saying)—White averaged a point-forward-esque 13.4 points, 9.3 rebounds and five assists per game. He doesn't shoot three-balls much (12 total attempts in college) and isn't fast enough to chase more athletic wings around the perimeter, but he remains one of the most versatile prospects from the 2012 draft.
As someone with an anxiety disorder, White does pose a risk. He "struggled to adjust to the NBA lifestyle" because of it, per USA Today's Sam Amick, and he's now three full seasons behind his classmates.
Nevertheless, it's encouraging that White didn't flame out of the league because he was considered a lost on-court cause.
Interested suitors, then, can look at him as a rookie—a young and inexperienced prospect with an offensive arsenal that still has the potential to pay first-round dividends.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @danfavale.
