Matt Kemp's San Diego Era Beginning with Worst Year of His Career

However many red flags might have existed were well disguised.

Behind alleviating some payroll, clearing out a messy jam in the outfield and making way for prospect Joc Pederson, the Los Angeles Dodgers were able to put Matt Kemp on the trading block over the offseason without it looking like they were trying to run away from him as quickly as possible. 

Considering a new front office headed by Andrew Friedman made a Kemp trade one of its primary to-dos, even after Kemp had been arguably the best offensive player in baseball during last season’s second half, it could have been seen that way.

The San Diego Padres viewed it as a prime opportunity.

General manager A.J. Preller saw Kemp as a critical piece to his offseason overall, and the organization was willing to take on his contract, which would become the richest deal in franchise history—$75 million over five years after the Dodgers kicked in $32 million—along with sending catcher Yasmani Grandal up Interstate 5 to Los Angeles.

After a wonderful honeymoon, the trade has become completely one-sided, though. Kemp is headed toward a career-worst season as his plate discipline has deteriorated. And while there have been no reports of his severely arthritic hips being a problem this year, it is fair to wonder if they are sapping his power since he has just one home run through 224 plate appearances.

Frustration also appears to be setting in lately for the superstar right fielder.

"

Pretty sure this is same Matt Kemp who's got one home run all season, and whom the Dodgers were supposed to miss. https://t.co/7zztY4aDvs

— robneyer (@robneyer) June 2, 2015"

“With any player, when the expectation level is high and you’re trying to meet that … you’re bound to be wound a little tight when things aren’t going your way. It’s a natural emotion,” Padres manager Bud Black told MLB Network Radio. “There’s no doubt Matt wants to produce and help us win games and get rolling. It hasn’t happened through May. 

“He’s very competitive. He wears his emotions on his sleeve at times.”

Early on, the deal looked like it could be one of baseball’s biggest bargains considering what the Padres owed Kemp—$3 million this season—and what he was giving them. He hit .361/.394/.541 with a .935 OPS, his lone home run and 14 RBI over his first 15 games with the Padres.

It all came crashing down after that. In his next 38 games, entering Tuesday, Kemp hit .199/234/.240 with a .473 OPS, no homers and 12 RBI. He is also currently in the midst of a home run drought that is at 175 plate appearances, a career high, and he went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts Tuesday.

Meanwhile, Grandal was the Dodgers’ best hitter in May, and his 151 weighted runs created plus through Monday was second-highest among major league catchers with at least 130 plate appearances.

The two outfielders Kemp helped keep off the field while with the Dodgers—Pederson and Andre Ethier—are both vying for All-Star spots. Ethier’s 161 OPS-plus entering Tuesday ranked fifth in the National League, and Pederson is a front-running Rookie of the Year candidate with a .971 OPS and 16 home runs, showing the power Kemp seems to have completely lost.

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Joc Pederson already led MLB in average HR distance. Today's 467-ft shot increased that lead pic.twitter.com/wz1SDU56XP

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) June 2, 2015"

But it would matter very little what the Dodgers were doing if Kemp were producing at an elite level, which is what the previous Dodgers front office expected when they signed him to an eight-year, $160 million extension in 2011. At the time, the contract was the richest ever for an NL player, signed as Kemp was coming off a runner-up finish in MVP voting.

Now in his age-30 season, Kemp is miles away from being that player. He is chasing pitches out of the zone at a career-high rate of 37.2 percent, according to Baseball Info Solutions data. Of course, then, it would stand to reason he is walking less, which he is, at 4.1 percent. Since 2008, that number has never been lower than seven percent.

Fangraphs data says his fly-ball and line-drive rates are on pace to be career worsts or close to it. What is interesting is Kemp’s percentage of hard-hit balls is 35.6 percent, lower than it was last season (40.3) but higher than it was in 2011 (33), his career year. That takes us to his BABIP, which is .314 this season, his lowest mark since 2010. 

What does all that tell us? Well, while there may be some bad luck—.314 is not all that bad, by the way—contributing to Kemp’s struggles, he is not lifting the ball enough nor hitting it hard enough to produce extra-base hits. He is also getting himself out more by chasing outside the zone, and walking less as a result.

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

There is clearly something different, i.e. flawed, with Kemp’s current approach. But Black believes, at least publicly, that Kemp is simply pressing to live up to the trade’s hype.

“I think he might be trying a little bit too hard,” Black told MLB Network Radio. “We gotta get him to the point where, ‘Hey, do what you do. You don’t need to carry the club.’ Then I think you’ll see the performance be more Matt Kemp-like.

“His frame of mind is ‘I’m going to come out of this.’ … That’s his mindset.”

The Padres counted on Kemp being something close to the hitter he was after the All-Star Break last year, which is what made him a desirable trade acquisition in the first place. He was supposed to be a major piece of San Diego’s revamped lineup, but so far he’s disappointed, as have the Padres, who are under .500 nearly two full months into the season.

Maybe Kemp breaks out of this, but it will undoubtedly require a change in approach, as he is trending more like a player fighting career decline than one in a simple slump.

All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired first-hand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.