6 Swing Games Detroit Lions Must Win for Postseason Return in 2015

NFL seasons aren't decided by X's and O's or Jimmys and Joes. It's all about the swing.

Swing games to be exact.

Detroit Lions head coach Jim Caldwell wouldn't agree publicly. He'd tell you that each game is important and none more so than the next one.

Of course, there's a certain truth to that. If you don't win the games where you're heavily favored, winning the close games that could go either way won't matter. Yet Detroit's 5-1 record in games decided by six or fewer points was the real key to its successful 2014 season.

That's why we're going to dive into this year's swing games. They're the ones that will decide if Detroit posts back-to-back postseason appearances. But before we do, let's dispense with a few things.

First, you could make an argument for every division game, especially any including the Green Bay Packers. That's not the point here. This isn't about winning the NFC North.

Second, Detroit doesn't have to win every game on this list to win a wild card, but these are the games that will go a long way toward shaping the season's success.

Week 1: At San Diego Chargers

Gregory Bull/Associated Press

There won't be many AFC teams on this list since we're talking about a return to the playoffs, and they won't factor into the final equation past the win or loss earned. But there is certainly value in getting off on the right foot. To do so, the Lions will have to take down a tough-to-peg San Diego Chargers team.

The franchise isn't sure where it'll call home past the 2015 season. Quarterback Philip Rivers isn't under contract past that point either. And then there's that whole situation with five-time All-Pro safety Eric Weddle.

But we can rest assured this team will renew its passion for running the ball. LaDainian Tomlinson was perennially among the top point-getters in fantasy football once upon a time. Now the torch will finally be passed to a worthy successor—sorry, Ryan Mathews—in first-round pick Melvin Gordon:

"

Philip Rivers latest to compare Melvin Gordon to Jamaal Charles. "Jamaal's probably a little faster. Melvin is bigger." Make similar cuts.

— Michael Gehlken (@UTgehlken) May 27, 2015"

That should suit Detroit's defense well. The unit was historically good against the run last season, and despite the losses of Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley, there should be enough left to remain in the top 10.

A win here would not only give Detroit a victory over a competent team to kick off the season; it would end the "Matthew Stafford can't beat a good quarterback on the road" discussion. No season opener is a must-win game, but the benefits of success in San Diego are significantly higher than most other victories.

Week 2: At Minnesota Vikings

Tom Gannam/Associated Press

There won't be time to rest regardless of what happens out West. The Minnesota Vikings are a team on the rise with a solid coach, a good young quarterback and a certain backfield All-Pro back in the fold.

But Teddy Bridgewater seems to have realistic expectations, as Ian Rapoport, NFL Network's national insider, notes, citing the signal-caller's comments to the St. Paul Pioneer Press' Chris Tomasson:

"

Disagree RT @christomasson: Even with Peterson back, Teddy Bridgewater said it's too early to call Vikes a contender http://t.co/iV7lCyKHaz

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) June 3, 2015"

Smart drafting and a shrewd coaching hire a year ago have put the Vikings squarely back in the NFC North race. Despite all of the distractions of 2014 and a rookie at the helm, Minnesota almost beat the Lions in Detroit and ended the season 7-9. 

Head coach Mike Zimmer also has a lot of young talent to work with on defense. Plus, when he was able to bring Adrian Peterson to heel, it sent a message to the team that he wasn't to be trifled with:

"

I've said this on the air a few times: Bottom line is getting Adrian Peterson back in the building was, end-to-end, a Mike Zimmer operation.

— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) June 2, 2015"

This is a much better team than last year's version. They will put pressure on the Lions and Packers all season. Detroit was an excellent team defending its den in 2014, but home wins are only part of the equation. If the Lions can steal one in Minnesota, the final ledger could favor Detroit again.

Week 5: Arizona Cardinals

Matt York/Associated Press

The Arizona Cardinals were a darn strong team last year that was ultimately done in by quarterback injuries. That casualty reinforced to the franchise that chances to win titles don't come along often, and when they do, they don't stay long.

Head coach Bruce Arians seems painfully aware of that, per his discussion with Kent Somers of AZCentral.com: "He knows the clock is ticking; we all know the clock is ticking. It is for a lot of guys on this team. You get a window to make a run and most of it depends on your quarterback. Right now is our window, to make this with him and there is a sense of urgency."

Carson Palmer, his veteran quarterback, echoed that statement to Somers: "Thirty-five-year-old quarterbacks only play until their[sic] 36, 37, 38. I realized that and I'm taking advantage of every second I can."

The Lions visited the desert the last three years and came up empty. They couldn't gain any offensive traction last season, losing 14-6 in a game that was as painful to watch as Palmer's injury.

And both teams find themselves in the same position. They're defensively orientated with a recent Super Bowl champion in their division, meaning this head-to-head win could be the deciding factor between who plays in January and who goes golfing.

Week 8: At Kansas City Chiefs (in London)

Reed Hoffmann/Associated Press

The Lions finish off the first half of the season with a return to London. While the team hotel will be busy securing the smoke detectors, Detroit will be hoping to secure a fourth swing-game win before taking its bye week.

It won't be easy. The Kansas City Chiefs have plenty of defensive talent, especially along the edges, which will put pressure on Detroit's young offensive line.

Outside linebacker Justin Houston is the ringleader (22 sacks in 2014) and was the main reason Peter King ranked the Chiefs so highly in his MMQB column:

"

4. Kansas City (9-7). Two things must happen: making Justin Houston contractually happy and finding some answers in the passing game. I like most everything else about the Chiefs’ ability to play in January.

"

King is referring to Kansas City's inability to complete a single touchdown pass to a wide receiver. The addition of Jeremy Maclin will break that streak, although the offense will still flow through running back Jamaal Charles.

Detroit has a pretty solid veteran locker room, so perhaps I'm too caught up in hitting the bye week with extra momentum. The players and coaches will likely stay steady no matter how this one plays out.

Yet the Lions shouldn't take the chance to send a message on the national stage against a stout opponent lightly, and a win could inspire the confidence necessary to charge through the second half of the season.

Week 12: Philadelphia Eagles (on Thanksgiving)

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

Head coach Chip Kelly is nothing if not bold. He has a vision, and he's going to follow it regardless of how bewildering it may be to fellow B/R writer Bryn Swartz:

"

It's been many weeks and I'm still struggling to comprehend Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, DeMarco Murray and Kiko Alonso as Eagles.

— Bryn Swartz (@eaglescentral) June 3, 2015"

The second name probably won't have much value in terms of wins (although his jersey sales are ridiculous). The other three, however, will determine how far the Eagles fly in 2015.

Kiko Alonso was a steal. He'll provide the interior playmaking at the second level to match the pass rush provided by the outside linebackers. Meanwhile, running back DeMarco Murray could upset the balance in the NFC East with his steady yard-eating style.

It's likely Detroit will be duking it out with the Dallas Cowboys, the Eagles and a team or two from the NFC West and NFC South for two wild cards. There's little room for error when it comes to head-to-head wins and in-conference tiebreakers. Thanksgiving will have a special importance this year.

Week 14: At St. Louis Rams

Tom Gannam/Associated Press

The assumption is if you're reading this article, you're a Lions fan, so you may want to avert your eyes and meet me below Andy Benoit's tweet:

"

Watching #Rams DT Aaron Donald exclusively on film, you get a much deeper appreciation for him. He'll be best DT in NFL within 3 years.

— Andy Benoit (@Andy_Benoit) June 2, 2015"

The Sports Illustrated scribe bangs home a point that will haunt Detroit's every move for the next decade (unless Eric Ebron goes all Tony Gonzalez on us). And he didn't even mention that Aaron Donald lines up next to defensive ends Chris Long and Robert Quinn and will rotate with defensive tackles Nick Fairley and Michael Brockers.

That's a nasty defensive line that should help the St. Louis Rams finally get over the hump in the NFC West—because the San Francisco 49ers are going through a rebuild. And since luck has a way of catching up with everyone, the Seattle Seahawks should be careful considering their charmed lives over the past two years.

In short, the Rams are a contender in the West.

And that also makes them a player for a wild card. This late-season brawl between two tough defenses will probably come down to the offensive lines and quarterbacks, with the winner gaining a huge late advantage in the playoff race. 

Detroit's success has created a schedule that is tough but navigable. If the Lions can knock out a winning record in these six games, a postseason spot should be awaiting them come January.

All advanced stats, grades and positional rankings are courtesy of Pro Football Focus.

Brandon Alisoglu is a Detroit Lions Featured Columnist who has written about the Lions on multiple sites. He also co-hosts a Lions-centric podcast, Lions Central Radio. Yell at him on Twitter about how wrong he is @BrandonAlisoglu.