Milwaukee Bucks Can Continue Road Back to Relevance This Offseason
The Milwaukee Bucks ended the season on a high note. The team has plenty of young talent to build around, but the right personnel decisions have to be made moving forward. That starts this offseason.
Few probably expected the Bucks to make such a quick turnaround following a franchise-worst 15-67 campaign in 2013-14. But the team was truly the feel-good story of this season, and there are a lot of reasons for fans to be excited.
What Milwaukee accomplished under Jason Kidd's first year as a head coach of the team is unbelievable. The Bucks finished with a respectable 41-41 record, stormed back into the playoffs and took the Chicago Bulls to six games in the first round. They also ranked as the second-best defensive team in the league, allowing just 99.3 points per 100 possessions, per ESPN's Hollinger stats.
The circumstances under which the young Bucks reached those milestones make it all the more impressive. After a strong start to his rookie campaign, Jabari Parker (20) played just 25 games due to a torn ACL. Larry Sanders, the team's defensive anchor who inked a $44 million extension in 2013, was also released by the team due to his off-court issues and after requesting a buyout.
With two starters gone, Kidd still managed to squeeze the most out of his roster. He instilled a solid defensive discipline, an impressive feat considering how young the key players are. Having established this mentality with the team in its infant stage is huge for the future.
The key cogs all certainly have the ability to be elite defenders, but they have truly come together as a group. Everyone bought into the team defense concept, and the physical tools were already there.
Milwaukee has stacked up on big and mobile players with giant wing spans. Most guys are able to guard multiple positions, and the Bucks managed to choke out offenses by throwing long arms all over passing lanes and switching a ton on pick-and-rolls. They led the league in steals as a result.
That type of defensive pressure is fun to watch, and it fueled the Bucks' athletic group in transition. Milwaukee desperately had to capitalize on its fast-break opportunities, as the team ranked just 25th in offense, per ESPN Hollinger stats.
The core of this team is still young, and most players are only starting to figure out their offensive strengths. They'll only improve, but the Bucks will have to continue playing all their cards correctly to truly return to relevance in the Eastern Conference.
Seeing the Big Picture
The Bucks are in no rush to land big-time free agents. Milwaukee isn't a particularly attractive destination for superstars anyway, and developing talent should be at the top of the priority list.
If the 2013 NBA draft took place today, Giannis Antetokounmpo (20) would likely be selected first overall. He went under the radar and dropped to 15th, but he is one of the most intriguing players in the league.
The Greek Freak is a 6'11" physical phenomenon. He has giant hands, nifty ball-handling skills and the athletic ability to Eurostep into a layup from the three-point line. Antetokounmpo is a consistent jumper away from being a perennial All-Star. Developing one might be a challenge, but he truly has the potential to be special if he can knock down outside shots.
Parker also has All-Star potential. He has a nice stroke and a versatile offensive skill set, but the major knee injury will slow down his development.
Michael Carter-Williams (23) can't shoot either, but he is a big point guard who can pass and rebound well. Brandon Knight was a more complete offensive player, but the Bucks still chose to trade him for Carter-Williams this season.
The Bucks didn't want to jeopardize their future flexibility by paying Knight and liked what they saw in the former Rookie of the Year. Carter-Williams won't hit restricted free agency until 2017-18, so Milwaukee took a calculated gamble that he could develop into a superior player in that time span.
Milwaukee could have a completely empty salary sheet in 2016-17 (outside of Sanders' $5 million payout) if it declines all its team options, per HoopsHype's salary information. But Parker, Antetokounmpo and Carter-Williams could all be locked up for a combined salary of under $12 million that year.
The salary cap will jump massively during the same season, so the Bucks could theoretically have room for two or even three max free agents to add next to their young trio. Even though Milwaukee isn't a popular destination, the theoretic possibility of forming an almost unprecedented superteam would be there. That's assuming Antetokounmpo, Parker and Carter-Williams reach their potential.
Obviously, the Bucks will sign players before then, but they'll most likely make sure to maintain as much of that flexibility as possible. That's why this offseason is so interesting. Milwaukee should still hunt for young players who fit the team's identity and have upside, without going too crazy.
They will need to keep Khris Middleton, who was a crucial contributor this year. He is a huge 2-guard, shot 40.7 percent beyond the arc and can abuse smaller wings in the post. Middleton is also a great defender, and he fits the blueprint of the stereotypical player of the new-look Bucks.
According to Gery Woelfel of The Racine Journal Times, Middleton, a restricted free agent this summer, could receive offers of up to $8 million per year in today's market. If that's the case, the Bucks would be insane not to match in that price range.
The raw numbers don't necessarily matter when it comes to young players, but the eye test does. Middleton has a unique skill set, and if his next contract ends up paying him somewhere around $8 million per year, it will be a bargain a couple years down the road.
Kidd mixed and matched with his lineups, but it's hard to establish consistent offense without shooting. Still, the Bucks' most-played lineup featuring Carter-Williams, Middleton, Antetokounmpo, Ersan Ilyasova and Zaza Pachulia outscored opponents by a ridiculous 9.9 points per 100 possessions, with an offensive rating that would have ranked fifth in the league, per NBA.com.
It's an impressive figure, but the Bucks need to have a stretch 4 on the floor to provide sufficient spacing. Parker didn't really shoot many threes this season, but he nailed 35.8 percent of his long-range attempts in college and could form a combo forward duo with Antetokounmpo. As long as he is a consistent long-range threat, the Bucks offense should get better in the future.
Offseason Targets
The worst thing Milwaukee could do this summer would be to sign veterans to big deals. The season was a success, but the Bucks shouldn't take away any playing time from its youngsters. This is still a multiyear project, and getting trigger-happy isn't the way to go.
That doesn't mean the Bucks shouldn't look to make moves. Even with O.J. Mayo and Ilyasova on the books for next season, Milwaukee will have enough cap space to make a little splash.
Pachulia has brought great toughness to the team, but he's not the starting center of this team's future. There are certainly viable options in this summer's free agency. There's also John Henson, who is a decent rim protector but doesn't get nearly enough playing time to further develop. In fact, Henson led the league in blocks per-36 minutes among players who logged more than 500 minutes last season, per Basketball-Reference.com.
Greg Monroe of the Detroit Pistons is an unrestricted free agent. He's played power forward next to Andre Drummond in Detroit, but it wouldn't be impossible to slot him in at center. It might even be a more fitting position for his skill set, especially with players like Giannis being big enough to help in the rim-protection department.
Monroe himself isn't a great rim protector, and he doesn't have much range. But he does have skills which would spice up the Bucks offense. He is an elite post-up big, a solid passer and a good rebounder. The spacing could still be a little tight, but he'd be a huge upgrade over Pachulia offensively.
He is also only 24, which is an acceptable age range for the young Bucks. However, Monroe will be looking for a max deal this summer, per Sean Deveney of Sporting News. The Bucks could create enough room for him, but it's questionable whether Monroe is worth the max.
Then again, the max this summer will appear as an acceptable figure when the cap jumps. If nothing else, he is worth consideration.
There are other situations the Bucks need to monitor. The Houston Rockets have two young bigs in Terrence Jones and Donatas Motiejunas, both of whom will be eligible for extensions this summer. They'd be smart to decline those options and hit restricted free agency in 2016-17, when they'll be able to make a lot more money under the increased salary cap.
Both Jones and Motiejunas have played power forward, they demand starter minutes and will be in for major paydays. Houston could theoretically hang on to both of them, but the frontcourt would get crowded, and it would limit the Rockets' ability to improve in other positions.
Even though Motiejunas' season ended with a slightly worrying back injury that required surgery, he'd be the Bucks' dream fit. At 24, he is already one of the niftiest post-up players in the league, capable of backing down any big man regardless of his defensive pedigree.
He is also developing three-point range. D-Mo shot 36.8 percent from deep this season, although he only attempted 1.9 attempts per game. His true value is close to the basket, but if he can knock down threes at that rate over a larger sample size, he'll be a scary individual.
Motiejunas would have trouble against bulkier guys playing center, but the Bucks have a solid system in place, and the offense-for-defense trade-off would unquestionably be worth it. He is big enough to play the position and is a lot stronger than he was when he first entered the league.
If Houston decides against keeping both Jones and Motiejunas, they could look to cash in on their trade value. Even though he is coming off a serious injury, there is a ton of hype around Motiejunas. The Bucks have a lot of tiny contracts to make the salaries match and could spice a deal up with their own first-round draft picks.
Milwaukee could, of course, wait until D-Mo hits restricted free agency and offer him a major deal in 2016-17. In that case, they could just stick with Pachulia for another year and add someone like Brandan Wright for some immediate frontcourt depth.
The Bucks would be smart to act casually this offseason. There is no reason to sign players just for the sake of it, and the time to make a major splash will come. Either way, there is a lot to be excited about when it comes to Milwaukee.
You can follow me on Twitter: @VytisLasaitis
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