Every College Football Conference's Sleeper Team for 2015
One of the best things about college football is watching surprise teams break through. Every summer, we fire through glossy preseason magazines and pore over their predictions for which programs will shine and which will falter in the coming season.
And then the season actually happens, turning those magazines into what appears to be ill-informed fodder. College football’s parity means there is always a new team under the radar, ready to make a move into a position of power.
Be honest: Unless you were a Georgia Tech or Mississippi State fan, did you expect the Yellow Jackets or Bulldogs to impress the way they did in 2014? Of course not. Here’s our best guess at finding the next sleeper team for each conference for 2015.
American Athletic Conference: Houston
1 of 10
Big things were expected of Houston last fall in Tony Levine’s third season. The Cougars were breaking in a new home in TDECU Stadium and had a talented roster. But it never quite came together as expected, and Levine was fired following a 7-5 regular season.
To replace Levine, Houston officials made one of the best hires of the coaching carousel in Tom Herman. Herman won a national title as Ohio State’s offensive coordinator, using his fast-paced spread offense to run all over opposing defenses.
Herman won’t be able to bring any of OSU’s talent with him, but he does inherit some solid pieces on Houston’s roster. Senior tailback Kenneth Farrow led the American Athletic Conference with 15 touchdowns and added 1,037 rushing yards, and Ryan Jackson gives the Cougars an excellent backfield. Converted receiver Greg Ward Jr. threw for 2,010 yards and 12 touchdowns over eight games last season, and the defense will be buoyed by a strong, experienced secondary that will start three seniors in William Jackson, Trevon Stewart and Adrian McDonald.
Houston’s AAC schedule is favorable, with likely league favorites Memphis and Cincinnati both coming to Houston. If Ward can pick up Herman’s system, the Cougars could really surprise.
Atlantic Coast Conference: N.C. State
2 of 10
Dave Doeren brought a 23-4 record and a BCS bowl appearance from Northern Illinois to N.C. State, but he got off to a rather slow start with the Wolfpack. N.C. State finished 3-9 in his first season and lost Doeren’s first 12 ACC games. But they finished with a flourish, clinching an 8-5 season with a bowl rout of Central Florida.
This fall, Doeren looks to build on that success. The ‘Pack will bring back 14 starters. While replacing both starting tackles and three of four defensive line starters will be a challenge, State does bring back athletic quarterback Jacoby Brissett as well as tailback Shadrach Thornton, who had 907 yards and nine touchdowns last fall. Tailback Matt Dayes is an all-around talent who had 1,278 all-purpose yards and 13 touchdowns last fall.
Following Bo Hines’ transfer, Dayes is the team’s leading returning receiver. Johnathan Alston and Jumichael Ramos will need to carry a bigger load in the passing game. While State must travel to Virginia Tech and Florida State, Atlantic Division rivals Louisville and Clemson come to Raleigh. There’s potential for this team to take another step forward in 2015.
Big Ten Conference: Penn State
3 of 10
Even after the NCAA unexpectedly lifted the remainder of a four-year bowl ban last fall, 2014 was still something of a disappointment for Penn State and James Franklin. The Nittany Lions finished 7-6 after a Pinstripe Bowl win over Boston College, but quarterback Christian Hackenberg regressed behind an awful offensive line.
Penn State’s line allowed 44 sacks, and Hackenberg’s stats suffered. After throwing for 20 touchdowns against 10 interceptions as a freshman, he threw for 12 touchdowns against 15 picks, including four touchdowns in the Pinstripe Bowl. He told USA Today's Paul Myerberg that he turned inward following a trying year.
"I learned that you have to focus on what's inside," he said. "Your teammates, your coaches, your family, that inner circle. That's who I relied on throughout that. They know where my mind's at. They know what I want to accomplish here individually and what we want to accomplish as a unit."
The Nittany Lions return 15 starters, including three from an offensive line that should be improved. Hackenberg is a future NFL quarterback, and he’ll be throwing to sophomore receiver DaeSean Hamilton, who had 82 receptions for 899 yards as a freshman. Leading rusher Akeel Lynch also returns. There are questions at defensive end, and the Lions must travel to Ohio State and Michigan State, but there is clearly room for growth in Franklin’s second season in Happy Valley.
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Big 12 Conference: Oklahoma State
4 of 10
2014 was a step back for Oklahoma State and Mike Gundy. Following a 10-3 record in 2013, a young Cowboy roster was up and down, starting the season 5-1 before enduring a five-game losing streak. But burning quarterback Mason Rudolph’s redshirt proved to be a prescient move. He threw for 853 yards and six touchdowns in three starts.
The Cowboys stunned Oklahoma in the regular season finale to make a bowl game, and they beat Washington in the Cactus Bowl. With Rudolph at the controls, the offense should be improved, although Rennie Childs must step forward at tailback following the dismissal of the dynamic Tyreek Hill due to domestic violence charges.
Defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah is one of the Big 12’s top pass-rush threats, and safety Jordan Stearns is a steady back-end presence with 103 tackles last fall. With TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma all coming to Stillwater, there’s potential for a bounce-back campaign.
Conference USA: Middle Tennessee
5 of 10
Last fall, Middle Tennessee was on the wrong end of a modern-day college football rarity: A bowl-eligible team that spent the holidays at home. Rick Stockstill’s Blue Raiders were 6-6 and finished ahead of Western Kentucky, which they beat 50-47, but Conference USA has a rule stating that seven-win teams must be selected before six-win teams.
So the Blue Raiders stayed home and WKU went to the Bahamas. Tough luck. This season, Stockstill has enough firepower to avoid such a disappointing fate. The Blue Raiders return 16 starters and have a stacked backfield with Jordan Parker and Shane Tucker, who combined for 1,032 rushing yards a year ago. Junior quarterback Austin Grammer had 2,557 yards and 17 touchdowns in his first season as a starter, and he also added 442 rushing yards and sis scores on the ground.
The Raiders must travel to East Division favorite Western Kentucky but host Marshall, and even with trips to Alabama and Illinois on the slate, improving on six wins and making noise in C-USA is entirely possible.
Mid-American Conference: UMass
6 of 10
UMass is in a difficult position as it enters 2015. The Minutemen are coming off a 3-9 record in Mark Whipple’s first season of his second stint as the program’s head coach, and this is their final season as a member of the Mid-American Conference.
However, the potential exists for the Minutemen to make their MAC swan song special. Much of a potent offense returns, led by senior quarterback Blake Frohnapfel, who threw for 3,345 yards, 23 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. His top target, Tajae Sharpe, caught 85 passes for 1,281 yards last fall.
Linebacker Jovan Santos-Knox is the leader of a leaky defense (he had 98 tackles a year ago) but the overall unit needs to show improvement this fall. There are no seniors in the projected starting lineup, so there’s room for growth.
The same could be said for the Minutemen as a whole. Getting to a bowl and making noise in the MAC aren’t out of the question in 2015.
Mountain West Conference: Nevada
7 of 10
Brian Polian’s second season at Nevada showed significant improvement. Following a 4-8 debut season, the Wolf Pack finished 7-6 and made a bowl appearance, falling to Louisiana-Lafayette in the New Orleans Bowl.
11 starters return from that team, but Polian must replace steady quarterback Cody Fajardo (junior Tyler Stewart is the likely replacement). But senior Don Jackson, who had 957 rushing yards and seven touchdowns last fall, will key the backfield, and the quarterback, whoever he is, has a reliable target in junior receiver Hassan Henderson.
The Wolf Pack’s defense needs improvement, but it has solid pieces, including senior defensive end Ian Seau, the nephew of late NFL Hall of Fame linebacker Junior Seau. The schedule isn’t easy, with trips to Texas A&M, Fresno State, Utah State and San Diego State on the docket, but Polian clearly has Nevada headed in the right direction, which should mean making an impact in 2015.
Pac-12 Conference: California
8 of 10
Last fall, Cal was one of the most improved teams that you probably didn’t notice. In Sonny Dykes’ second season, the Bears improved from 1-11 to 5-7 and just missed a bowl game, losing four games by eight points or less.
Quarterback Jared Goff took a big step forward in his second season as a starter, throwing for 3,975 yards and 35 touchdowns. He led a potent offense that needed to put up plenty of points to offset a defense that was one of the worst in the FBS last fall, allowing 39.8 points and 511.8 yards per game.
Tailback Daniel Lasco and wide receivers Kenny Lawler and Bryce Treggs are all proven offensive options, too.
If the defense can improve and Cal can survive a slate that includes road games at Texas, Utah, UCLA, Oregon and Stanford, the Bears could make a bowl game and really surprise in 2015.
Southeastern Conference: Arkansas
9 of 10
As November 2014 began, it would have been understandable if Arkansas fans were uneasy about Bret Bielema’s tenure as head coach. Following a 3-9 debut, the Razorbacks were staring at another postseason at home.
As it turned out, it was truly a November to remember. Bielema broke an 0-12 career start in the SEC with wins over LSU and Ole Miss, and Arkansas made the Texas Bowl, where it whipped old Southwest Conference rival Texas 31-7.
2015 has the potential to be even better. The Razorbacks return the nation’s only pair of 1,000-yard rushers in senior Jonathan Williams and junior Alex Collins, and senior quarterback Brandon Allen was quietly steady last fall, throwing for 2,285 yards and 20 touchdowns against five interceptions. Plus, they’ll operate behind an offensive line that returns four starters, a big plus.
The defense must replace standout linemen Trey Flowers and Darius Philon from a unit which was nasty to opposing foes last fall, pitching shutouts against LSU and Ole Miss. Arkansas has to travel to Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss and Tennessee, but there’s potential for significant improvement this fall.
Sun Belt Conference: Appalachian State
10 of 10
Midway through 2014, Appalachian State’s FBS debut looked like one to forget. The Mountaineers, a longtime FCS power, started 1-5. But Scott Satterfield’s team won its last six games to finish 7-5 and raise hopes for 2015.
Appalachian State returns an eye-popping 20 starters, led by junior tailback Marcus Cox, who threw for 1,415 yards and 19 touchdowns. Sophomore quarterback Taylor Lamb threw for 2,381 yards and 17 touchdowns as a freshman starter and has room to grow.
The Mountaineers’ defense led the Sun Belt, allowing 347.6 yards per game. The unit is led by junior linebacker John Law, who piled up 91 tackles last fall. While the nonconference slate includes a tough trip to Clemson, Georgia Southern, Arkansas State and Louisiana-Lafayette all visit Boone, which gives hope for a big move upward in the program’s second FBS campaign.
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