NBA Free Agents 2015: Projecting Most Likely Destinations for Top 15 Available
In addition to the typical concerns big-name free agents must juggle, this season's crop will face the curveball of a rising salary cap and the attendant allure of short-term deals.
As if picking a new team wasn't hard enough already.
We'll see loads of stars hit the market in July—some unrestricted, some restricted and some only after turning down guaranteed money to opt out.
The players included here aren't ranked in any strict sense; instead, we've compiled 15 of the most intriguing talents. LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Kawhi Leonard and Tim Duncan won't appear, as those four seem least likely to go anywhere.
Plenty of the players we'll cover will stay with their current teams, but inclusion here means there's at least a chance for competing organizations to step in and make things interesting.
The actual free-agent process hasn't even started yet, but here's where we see some of the headliners going once the frenzy kicks off in earnest.
Marc Gasol, C, Memphis Grizzlies
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Most Likely Destination: Memphis Grizzlies
After losing in the conference semifinals, Marc Gasol offered a comment that shook up the months-long certainty he'd be staying with the Grizzlies as a free agent.
"I haven't put all the scenarios on the table yet," he said of his free-agency options, via Michael Wallace of ESPN.com.
Why is this news?
Because it implies there's more than one possible outcome—a return to Memphis—in play here.
Now, given Gasol's roots in Memphis and the chemistry he's established with the team's core, it still feels like the smart money is on his staying put. And that's to say nothing of the extra year the Grizzlies can offer him.
Yet Wallace also reported that the San Antonio Spurs, Los Angeles Lakers, New York Knicks and Dallas Mavericks are readying proposals to present to Gasol when free agency begins on July 1.
If he's keeping his options open now, who knows what a few max offers might do for that range of possibilities?
Rajon Rondo, PG, Dallas Mavericks
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Most Likely Destination: Los Angeles Lakers
After flaming out in Dallas, the market for Rajon Rondo won't be robust.
But he's a big name who wouldn't be intimidated by playing with Kobe Bryant, two qualities the Lakers seem to value. In addition, head coach Byron Scott has already explained his disdain for three-point shooting, so it stands to reason Rondo's inaccuracy from deep won't hurt his chances in L.A. as badly as it would elsewhere.
Could pairing Bryant and Rondo be a disaster? Absolutely.
"I think their styles on-court are not too complementary," SB Nation's Tom Ziller opined. "Both want the ball, both can pass very well, both are at their best driving the paint and both have lost at least one step in the last three years."
This isn't a list of the best destinations for each free agent. It's a list of the most likely. And because the Lakers are crazy and desperate enough to take the plunge on a player for whom there may not be much demand, Los Angeles feels like the surest bet.
Jimmy Butler, SG, Chicago Bulls
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Most Likely Destination: Chicago Bulls
Add Jimmy Butler to the stand-pat crew.
After turning down the Bulls' extension offer last summer, Butler's official rise to stardom in 2014-15 will almost certainly warrant a maximum salary. He's a restricted free agent, which gives Chicago the right to match another team's offer.
And now that Butler has added primary-scoring duties to a job description that already included the role of defensive stopper, there's just no way the Bulls will hesitate to pay whatever it takes to keep him.
Big offers coming in from teams with cap space and the desire for a young star won't matter.
Butler's not going anywhere, and he'll form a potent backcourt duo with Derrick Rose next season.
Kevin Love, PF, Cleveland Cavaliers
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Most Likely Destination: Los Angeles Lakers
Despite consistently professing his intent to stay with the Cleveland Cavaliers, Kevin Love isn't doing a very good job of convincing those close to him that he's serious.
ESPN.com's Brian Windhorst spoke with Grantland's Zach Lowe on The Lowe Post podcast, via RealGM.com:
""Every executive I talk to, every agent I talk to, every quasi insider, every girlfriend's cousin's sister's boyfriend all says this guy is out of there," said Windhorst.
"I hear the same thing from everybody," said Lowe. "From everyone that is two or three or four steps removed. I don't quite believe all of that ... Part of what's going on there is the Lakers' boogeyman. They don't just say he's out of there, they say 'He's going to the Lakers.' That has as much to do with the fear people have of the Lakers as it does with Kevin Love."
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Love never seemed happy with the Cavs, and it's hard to fault him for possibly seeking out a bigger role someplace else.
Love in Los Angeles just feels right.
Why fight it?
Draymond Green, PF, Golden State Warriors
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Most Likely Destination: Golden State Warriors
If the Warriors could find another minimum-salaried second-rounder to give them elite defense, hustle and across-the-board statistical production, they'd probably let somebody else pay Draymond Green max money this summer.
But since no such player exists, the Warriors have no choice but to pony up the cash Green has earned.
They'll be happy to do it, by the way.
A fan favorite nearly on the level of MVP Stephen Curry, Green makes the Warriors go and Oracle Arena go crazy. Whether he's defending point guards, battling for boards at center or pushing the ball up the floor at breakneck speed, Green is always doing something to endear himself to his supporters.
And the guys signing his checks.
Green's hometown Detroit Pistons might tempt him with a max offer, but the Warriors will quickly leverage their right of first refusal to match.
This guy's not going anywhere.
DeMarre Carroll, SF, Atlanta Hawks
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Most Likely Destination: Detroit Pistons
Sean Deveney of Sporting News reports the Lakers, Boston Celtics and Pistons are interested in unrestricted free agent DeMarre Carroll and are willing to pay what could be as much as $15 million per year to get him.
The Hawks got immense value from the breakout two-way talent during their 60-win campaign, but bargains don't stay bargains forever. Keeping him at a price six times greater than what they paid him this season might not make financial sense—especially with Paul Millsap's free agency to consider.
Carroll's scary knee injury in the conference finals gave him a blunt reminder about NBA mortality, so he should be motivated to lock in as much cash as possible.
Detroit isn't going to get Green, so Carroll might be a nice consolation prize who'll bring much of the same toughness and versatility. Unless the Hawks really shake up the roster to accommodate a big new contract, the Pistons seem like the more plausible destination.
LaMarcus Aldridge, PF, Portland Trail Blazers
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Most Likely Destination: Portland Trail Blazers
Maybe LaMarcus Aldridge feels the pull of teams closer to his Texas roots, and maybe he'd like a change of pace after spending his entire career with the Blazers.
But as the sting of a postseason defeat recedes, he'll probably realize that leaving Portland won't guarantee him a smoother path to playoff success. The Dallas Mavericks need major changes, and the San Antonio Spurs are another year older.
Plus, there's the money.
If Aldridge signs a one-year deal to stay in Portland and then re-ups next summer, he'll be rolling in dough.
Danny Leroux broke it down for Sporting News: "Aldridge can top out at a five-year, $108.8 million contract this year or play out a single-year deal to get a five-year, $168 million contract next summer. Including the one-year maximum-salary deal, that’s a difference of more than $78 million dollars over the next six years."
The appeal of short-term deals this summer is a topic that deserves its own extensive coverage. All we need to focus on in this instance is how Aldridge can capitalize on it by staying in Portland.
An extra $78 million is tough to pass up, especially when there's no obviously superior team out there to join.
Paul Millsap, PF, Atlanta Hawks
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Most Likely Destination: Atlanta Hawks
Quiet optimism is precisely the right kind of optimism to have about re-signing a player as notoriously soft-spoken as Paul Millsap. And as it turns out, that's exactly what USA Today's Jeff Zillgitt says the Hawks have.
Millsap's willingness to defend LeBron James in the conference finals is indicative of the whatever-it-takes approach that has endeared him to fans and made him so valuable to the best Hawks team in franchise history.
He spaces the floor, moves the ball willingly and rebounds effectively despite being undersized.
Unrestricted free agency can bring about unexpected results, and Millsap could be lured by big dollars after playing the last two years on a below-market contract of about $9 million per season. But the Hawks are too smart to let such an important piece of what they've built get away.
Reggie Jackson, PG, Detroit Pistons
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Most Likely Destination: Someplace Else
How's that for specific?
Here's the thing: Reggie Jackson can't shoot the ball. He ranked 62nd in true shooting percentage among the 76 players who attempted at least 12 shots per game last year, according to Basketball-Reference.com.
There are ways to compensate for the lack of spacing that results from a point guard with a busted jumper, but having the non-spacing Andre Drummond as another franchise cornerstone makes the task immeasurably harder.
Jackson just doesn't fit on a team built around a camped-out big man inside. There's nowhere for him to drive, and defenders will only sag toward the middle anyway. That makes life harder for Jackson and everyone else looking for angles into the paint.
Coming off the bench for a team like the Hawks, who need penetrators to create kick-outs? Sure.
Leading a trigger-happy Philadelphia 76ers squad? Maybe.
But not in Detroit.
Jackson and the Pistons should part ways.
Goran Dragic, PG, Miami Heat
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Most Likely Destination: Miami Heat
Goran Dragic wants to run, and because the Heat have assured their free-agent guard that they'll pick up the pace next year, the chances Dragic sprints out of Miami are virtually nonexistent.
Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald wrote, "We’re told Dragic very much likes Spoelstra and Riley, and nothing to this point has changed regarding the Heat’s status as front-runners to keep him. The Lakers, Knicks, New Orleans, Milwaukee [and] Sacramento are all expected to have interest."
There'll be challenges if Miami transitions to a more uptempo attack. Wade and Luol Deng may not be suited to a faster pace, and let's also keep lumbering center Hassan Whiteside in mind. He thrives in half-court sets on offense, so integrating him into a speedier style could pose the biggest problems of all.
But Dragic has a good thing going in Miami. Wade works well as an off-ball cutter, and Chris Bosh's return will create a terrific pick-and-pop combo.
Don't be surprised if Dragic tests the waters elsewhere. He'd be wise to assess all his options.
But it sounds like a return to Miami is a foregone conclusion.
Brook Lopez, C, Brooklyn Nets
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Most Likely Destination: New York Knicks
Brook Lopez has faced injuries for most of his career, which should make him particularly amenable to a long-term contract. He needs to lock in money now, because he knows his health isn't guaranteed.
The Knicks have money, and they're not going to get any of their primary targets like Gasol or Dragic. Those players are at points in their careers where winning matters, and New York just isn't ready to succeed next year.
This isn't a knock on Lopez's desire to win; it's more an acknowledgement of the opportunistic position he can put himself in.
By opting out of the final year of his deal with the Brooklyn Nets, Lopez might wind up as the only big name willing to take the Knicks' money. And New York is probably willing to take on the injury risk in exchange for a splashy signing.
Especially one that could fit into the triangle and anchor the team going forward (health permitting), as noted by Bleacher Report's Zach Buckley: "At 27 years old, he's exactly the type of player New York should covet. He's experienced enough to seamlessly slot in alongside Anthony and young enough to take the baton a few years down the line."
Rim protection will be an issue, and it's hard to know if anyone can make the triangle a viable system anymore. But Lopez and the Knicks seem like a solid match.
Brandon Knight, PG, Phoenix Suns
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Most Likely Destination: Phoenix Suns
You don't blow up your team to get a player and then let him walk away for nothing.
Brandon Knight, the Suns' return on a midseason roster shakeup that sent Isaiah Thomas and Goran Dragic packing, is now integral to the front office's effort to save face. He's also a pretty talented basketball player, which is another reason Phoenix will do what it can to hang onto him.
"I'm optimistic about the situation," he said in a Sirius XM radio interview, via Bright Side of the Sun. "I like it here, and I like the way I've been treated so far. Top-notch, class organization and, like I said, I'm looking forward to a future with the Suns. I think we have some special things to look forward to next year."
Knight is a good fit in the dual-point guard system the Suns seem intent on running. As one of just seven players to hit at least 125 threes and hand out at least 330 assists last year, according to Basketball-Reference.com, he proved he could work on or off the ball alongside Eric Bledsoe.
Knight is restricted, so the Suns can sign him outright or let the market dictate what he's worth and then match.
But it sounds like he's happy, and Phoenix should be committed to making last season's trades worthwhile.
DeAndre Jordan, C, Los Angeles Clippers
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Most Likely Destination: Los Angeles Clippers
Like Aldridge, DeAndre Jordan is another prime candidate for a one-year deal and a bigger cash-in try next summer. And because the Clippers' title window is probably still open wider than the one in Dallas, sticking in Los Angeles makes the most sense.
And from the Clips' perspective, retaining DJ is an absolute must.
They're capped out and have no way to replace him with a similarly valuable player if he leaves. That means that re-signing Jordan to whatever deal he wants (short-term, long-term, max, you name it) is a no-brainer.
What happens next summer is anybody's guess. Jordan could look for a higher five-year max than the Clips would be willing to pay or could seek out other options elsewhere.
This summer, though, Jordan will stay with the Clippers.
Tobias Harris, SF, Orlando Magic
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Most Likely Destination: New York Knicks
Hey, the Knicks are going to use that cash on somebody.
So why not Tobias Harris, whom Grantland's Zach Lowe wrote earlier this year could attract New York's eye and might even warrant a max offer?
Harris is unquestionably talented, and he's a restricted free agent the Magic can control. But he's not a consistent defender and might ultimately be in the way of Aaron Gordon's development in the frontcourt.
A good athlete who could develop into a better cutter and spacer with seasoning, Harris might fit in the triangle. If New York makes a sizable offer, don't expect Orlando to match.
Tyson Chandler, C, Dallas Mavericks
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Most Likely Destination: Dallas Mavericks
You can't let Tyson Chandler go twice. You just can't.
After winning the 2011 title, the Mavericks decided not to re-sign their big man, the boldest in a series of moves that shook up a championship core and set the Mavs back.
Chandler returned in 2014-15, averaged a double-double and once again endeared himself to the franchise. So even though he's not as defensively dominant as he once was, and even though at 32, Chandler is slowing down, it's too hard to imagine Dallas repeating its mistake.
According to Eddie Sefko of the Dallas Morning News, Chandler doesn't sound sure of his fate:
"You never know what the future holds. I don’t know what’s going to happen. I think it’s different because the first time around it was the lockout, it was all kind of crazy and the [salary] cap was changing. Now the business is moving in more of a positive direction. I think teams have more flexibility, so we’ll see where that goes.
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Nothing's certain, but the Mavericks have to be conscious of the familiar situation they're in. This is their do-over, and they'll get it right this time around.
