Keys for Golden State Warriors to Close Out Series with Houston Rockets
The Golden State Warriors will make tactical tweaks ahead of their second shot at a closeout win against the Houston Rockets in Game 5 on Wednesday, but the real secret to advancing will be avoiding freak accidents.
There were two of those in Game 4, and their combined effect kept the Rockets alive.
We all know about the first one—the play that sent MVP Stephen Curry toppling wildly over Trevor Ariza and crashing to the floor with a sickening thud. We've seen dozens of replays by now, and the tops-over-tails spill gets uglier every time.
Avoiding another fluky fall like that won't be difficult, but there should be lingering concern over Curry's health going forward. Golden State's medical staff determined Curry was banged up but didn't have a concussion, and general manager Bob Myers explained to reporters: "If he did, he wouldn't have played. That's a pretty hard line."
Still, mum's been the word on Curry's prognosis, per Ethan Strauss of ESPN:
During the year, the Warriors were 17 points per 100 possessions better than their opponents with the MVP on the court.
If Curry can't go in Game 5 or is significantly limited, this series could get more interesting than the Dubs would prefer. But you already knew that.
What you probably didn't know was that the Rockets could score 45 points in a quarter with the most stunning quick-strike shooting onslaught of the postseason. Don't feel bad; nobody else knew that either—probably not even the Rockets themselves.
That incendiary first quarter was Freak Accident No. 2.
No disrespect to the Rockets, but making 17 of 22 field goals, even against a complacent defense, is a flat-out anomaly. Houston hit all six of its off-the-dribble threes in that opening period, according to ESPN Stats & Info.
Look at all of that green, via NBA.com:
That's not happening again, partially because no team sustains that kind of hot streak (the Rockets shot 48.1 percent in quarters 2-4 of Game 4), and partially because the Warriors' league-leading defense won't allow another such embarrassment.
Freak injuries and unsustainable shooting aside, there are a handful of strategic moves the Warriors can make to assure they finish out the series on Wednesday.
Take Care of the Ball
Turnovers continue to be a problem for Golden State, as it ranks dead last among playoff teams with a turnover ratio of 15.6 percent. When the Warriors take care of the ball, they force the Rockets to attack a set defense.
And nobody's defense is more stout when set than Golden State's.
We saw what a more careful effort looked like in Game 3, when the Dubs committed zero live-ball giveaways in the first half en route to one of the most dominant victories of the postseason. In Game 4, the Warriors' sloppy play let the Rockets dictate a scattered tempo, and Houston scored 37 points on 65 percent shooting in transition, per ESPN Stats & Info.
The Warriors have struggled to toe the line between aggression and carelessness all season. If they stay on the right side of it in Game 5, Houston will struggle to score.
Make Harden Work
James Harden erupted for 45 points in Game 4, and his offensive consistency sustained the advantage that the big first quarter created.
Unlike the rest of Houston's offense, Harden's scoring may not regress. He spent a full season crushing opponents in one-on-one situations, drawing fouls and hitting tough, contested shots.
Golden State has some of the best perimeter stoppers in the league in Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston. But none have had consistent success against Harden.
So maybe it's time to wear him down in other areas.
Whoever Harden guards has to make him work—whether that means running him through screens, attacking him directly or simply forcing him to expend energy chasing bodies in transition. To some extent, the Rockets will always be able to hide Harden; slotting him on Barnes, who spends a fair amount of time camped in the corners, is a good way to save his energy.
The Warriors won't break from their offensive scheme to tire Harden out, but they can at least make sure that whoever he's assigned to is as active and physical as possible. Heck, if Harden is on Barnes, maybe a few post-ups are in order.
Get Some Official Help
Dwight Howard drilled Andrew Bogut in the face with an elbow in Game 4. And though the play only drew a flagrant-1 foul at the time, that could change, per former NBA executive Stu Jackson:
If the league upgrades Howard's play to a flagrant-2, he'll be suspended for Game 5, according to NBA.com's John Schuhmann:
And that could open up a world of possibilities for the Warriors.
Without D12 inside as a lob threat, Harden loses his main bailout option on drives. Golden State defended those situations poorly in Game 4, with Thompson's inattention to help rotations standing out as especially egregious. If Howard isn't suspended, we should expect Houston to go back to the alley-oop well often.
If he is banned, though, the Warriors could break out the small-ball lineup that has buried opponents all year. Draymond Green at center is a gamble against some bigger foes inside, but Clint Capela, Josh Smith and Terrence Jones don't have any advantages against Green and the Warriors' rangy collection of wings.
In this series, the lineup featuring Curry, Thompson, Livingston, Barnes and Green has outscored the Rockets by 25.2 points per 100 possessions.
Houston doesn't want to see that unit in Game 5, but it will if Howard has to sit.
Trust the Process
Trust the process. Believe in what got you here. Don't change who you are.
This is the drum you beat whenever a dominant regular-season team runs into spats of postseason adversity, and it applies to the Warriors in Game 5.
Golden State can't erase the 45-point quarter that preserved the Rockets' playoff lives, but it can take solace in knowing that it won't happen again. And unlike the trouble Golden State faced against the Memphis Grizzlies, fixing this won't require a major adjustment.
The Warriors and Rockets have shown us their baseline levels of performance through 82 regular-season games and three playoff rounds. Golden State outscored opponents by 10.1 points per game this season, while Houston won by an average of just 3.4 points. In the playoffs, the Warriors' net rating is plus-8.0, while the Rockets' is actually negative, at minus-2.3.
Golden State's typical level of play is simply higher than Houston's.
That's been the case all year and all series, save for that one quarter.
If Golden State changes nothing, it will almost certainly close out the series in Game 5.
Toss in some small adjustments, a raucous home crowd and the wake-up call in Game 4, and it's hard to envision anything but a comfortable Warriors win.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise indicated.
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