Does Monta Ellis Hold the Key to Dallas Mavericks' Offseason?
The summer of 2015 holds a lot variables for the Dallas Mavericks, the biggest of which is Monta Ellis.
According to HoopsHype, Ellis has a player option that would net him $9 million next season, a figure his production has surpassed. As he nears 30, Monta will almost certainly opt out of the last year of his deal in pursuit of what could be the last major contract of his career.
Assuming Ellis opts out and isn't re-signed, Dallas could create enough cap room for a max-contract offer to a big-time free agent.
Ideally, the Mavs would have Ellis on hold while they scavenge the league for another superstar. If they strike out, they could keep Monta and perhaps offer him a four-year deal worth something in the vicinity of $12 million per year.
Unfortunately for Dallas, that's hardly an acceptable process from Ellis' perspective. It makes no sense for him to twiddle his thumbs and wait while other teams fill their precious cap space. If Dallas would end up landing a big free agent, Monta would then miss out on a big payday.
If Dallas chooses to gauge the interest of players like LaMarcus Aldridge or DeAndre Jordan, Ellis will most likely, simultaneously meet with other teams, even if he wouldn't mind staying with the Mavs. That would put pressure on the Mavericks to act hastily.
That's partially why it would be better for both parties if they were on the same page going into the process. Ellis is either in the team's long-term future plans and re-signs early, or he isn't and they part ways instead of keeping each other hanging.
But making a decision on whether or not to keep Ellis isn't that simple.
On the con side, he relies a ton on explosiveness, which will start to decline as he enters his thirties. While Ellis' offensive game is still top notch, his defensive effort isn't consistent, and it was especially lacking in the NBA playoffs.
The Mavs are unlikely to build a solid defensive backbone—one of the primary keys to championship contention—with Monta and Dirk Nowitzki playing big minutes together.
Still, replacing Ellis is a tall task. He is an essential part of the offense, a key cog who gets the machine going.
He ranked 12th in the league in total drives last season, per NBA.com. Monta was at the very top of that list early in the year, but he was forced to take a step back when Rajon Rondo joined the team through a trade last December.
There is a direct correlation between Ellis' driving statistics and the historic numbers Dallas put up before trading for Rondo. He initiated most possessions through pick-and-rolls with either Tyson Chandler or Nowitzki screening, forced his way into the paint and either finished or kicked the ball out for secondary action. He manipulated the open space on the court expertly, and the Mavericks thrived as a result.
It's hard to find guys as explosive off the dribble as Ellis in the league, let alone in this summer's free-agency crop. Even though he struggles defensively, his ability to break down a defense is extremely valuable.
That's why this will be a tough decision for the Mavs. It's scary to accept the fact that an aging Ellis won't be good enough to get this team over the hump, then venture into the unknown instead.
But the Mavericks' front-office people aren't blind. They know bringing back the same core won't help them compete against the Western Conference juggernauts. If that's the case, the only way to spring up the ladder is to make drastic changes and hope things click.
Dallas probably wouldn't mind taking a little hit offensively to improve its defense. If Ellis is gone, there is no reason to look for another ball-dominant wing who isn't a great defender. A solid three-and-D guy could potentially do the trick.
Jimmy Butler won't be attainable, but there are interesting names further down the free-agent tier list. Danny Green and Khris Middleton would both be fabulous replacements. They are likely to stay with their current teams, the San Antonio Spurs and Milwaukee Bucks, but Dallas could throw rich multi-year deals worth over $10 million per season their way to gauge interest.
Paying Green the big bucks would be a little dangerous, as his market value has risen in huge part due to his excellent fit in the Spurs' system. But Dallas can run a similar offense and should be able to integrate him if needed.
Neither Green nor Middleton can match Ellis' ability to penetrate, but they will likely cost less money and are both significantly superior defenders. They also bring different offensive skill sets to the table—Middleton has a nice post game, while Green is one of the best spot-up shooters in the league—and would force head coach Rick Carlisle to slightly adjust the identity of the team.
Final Thoughts
Whether or not Ellis remains with the Mavericks will likely have to be the first big decision of the summer. Him staying or leaving will have a domino effect on the rest of the free-agency period, and other pieces likely won't start falling into place before Dallas makes a decision one way or the other.
Monta's future status won't just determine how much cap space Dallas can allocate to bring in more talent. Finding him a competent replacement is one thing, but the Mavs will have to rebuild their whole backcourt with the Rondo trade turning into a disaster.
If Ellis stays, Dallas will have to focus on finding a gritty defensive point guard with three-point range. If he bounces and the Mavs settle on a 2-guard who can't reliably break down a defense, the new floor general will have to fill some of that void.
The new point guard would then have to be a solid pick-and-roll attacker and passer who comes at a cheap price. There are veterans who fit the bill and could serve as placeholders before Dallas finds a more reliable option. Devin Harris could also step into a starting role if needed, forming a competent backcourt with a potential newcomer.
There have been rumors of the Denver Nuggets' Ty Lawson looking for a way out of his current situation, and the player himself posted an ill-advised message on Instagram, saying he wished he could join Dallas. The Mavericks don't have a ton of assets after trading some draft picks for Rondo, but they could muster something up if a player of Lawson's caliber became available.
One way or another, Ellis is the elephant in the room that has to be addressed before Dallas settles on a new direction and perhaps a new identity.
You can follow me on Twitter: @VytisLasaitis
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