Warriors vs. Rockets: Analysis, Predictions for Western Conference Finals Game 4
It's win or go home for the Houston Rockets, who find themselves in a 3-0 series hole after getting demolished, 115-80, in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals on Saturday night.
Following an embarrassment at Toyota Center, the Rockets will be tasked with bouncing back against a Golden State Warriors team that rode Stephen Curry's 40 points (7-of-9 shooting from three) to a blowout victory that pushed Houston to the brink of elimination.
Counting regular-season showdowns, the Warriors are now 7-0 against the Rockets during the 2014-15 campaign. Golden State's 35-point win in Game 3 also pushed its average margin of victory in the Western Conference Finals to a whopping 13.3 points per game.
With their season on life support, the Rockets now have to combat a litany of questions regarding their ability to play disciplined defense on Curry while finding an equilibrium on offense that frees James Harden from shouldering such a massive burden.
| 4 | Monday | May 25 | 9 p.m. ET | Houston, TX |
| 5* | Wednesday | May 27 | 9 p.m. ET | Oakland, CA |
| 6* | Friday | May 29 | 9 p.m. ET | Houston, TX |
| 7* | Sunday | May 31 | 9 p.m. ET | Oakland, CA |
Key Storylines
Golden State: Will They Finish Off the Sweep?
After sweeping the New Orleans Pelicans in Round 1, the Warriors have a chance to bookend their Western Conference playoff experience with sweeps and enter the NBA Finals with a 12-2 record.
One series removed from getting pushed and prodded by the pesky Memphis Grizzlies for six games, the Warriors have set out to make quick work of a Houston team that's been scrambling for answers.
However, the Warriors may have reason to look beyond a series sweep.
According to ESPN.com's Marc Stein, Golden State's cumulative record to this point suggests it should be considered the undisputed title favorite:
There's extra incentive for the Warriors to pad that historic win total with one more victory Monday night. If Golden State is able to close things out, it will be looking at nine days of rest before the NBA Finals get underway June 4.
Not only is that a huge bundle of time to rest some tired legs, but it will afford Steve Kerr and his coaching staff plenty of extra hours to game-plan for their next opponent.
Houston: Can the Rockets Experience a Revival on Offense?
Game 3 was a nightmare scenario for the Rockets. Beyond Curry blitzing them from beyond the arc, Houston was incapable of getting shots to fall with any sort of regularity.
In the loss, Houston shot 33.7 percent from the field and 20 percent from three while missing 12 of 31 free throws. That's a recipe for disaster, and one that could be the bane of the Rockets' existence again if they can't find success early in their sets.
When the Rockets were forced to settle down in the half court, they often looked discombobulated due to an absence of off-ball movement.
Rockets head coach Kevin McHale acknowledged that purposeful flow off the ball has been a major component of Golden State's success, according to Diamond Leung of the Bay Area News Group:
The key here will be quicker passes that force the Warriors' defense to scramble. At this rate, it's commonplace to see Houston shooters standing stagnant on the wing awaiting feeds for spot-up looks, which forces Harden to try to bail out the offense with an isolation late in the shot clock.
"The Warriors sent double-team help against him on the perimeter and often kept a center stationed in his path inside," the Houston Chronicle's Jonathan Feigen wrote. "The best way to defeat that would have been through excellent movement with the ball and of the ball, but when the Rockets struggled, they bogged down, playing into the hands of the Golden State defense."
Saturday night, the Warriors passed the ball 332 times, which was 50 times more than the Rockets, according to SportVU player-tracking data. The disparity in uncontested field-goal percentage was telling, too, as the Warriors drilled 48.8 percent of their open looks while Houston hit on just 25.7 percent of its uncontested shot attempts.
Obvious Adjustments Each Team Must Make
Golden State: Get Klay Thompson in a Rhythm
Curry has carried the offense through three games, but there would be no better time for Klay Thompson to break out than a potential closeout game.
Through three contests with the Rockets, Thompson is averaging an uncharacteristic 15.0 points on 36.7 percent shooting from the field and 18.2 percent shooting from three.
The real concern there is the long-distance efficiency, because that's where Thompson has long made his money. Surprisingly, Thompson has missed 15 of his 16 threes from above the break—a spot where he knocked down triples at a 41.7 percent clip during the regular season.
Golden State did a good job trying to get him in a rhythm early in Game 3, but Curry took over in the second quarter and never looked back.
If Thompson can snap out of his brief slump and gain confidence entering an extended layoff, the Warriors will be in great shape moving forward.
Houston: Scheme to Slow Down Stephen Curry
Curry has been next-level ridiculous against a Rockets team without feisty point guard Patrick Beverley. ESPN.com's Ethan Sherwood Strauss provided a by-the-numbers look at the MVP's output:
Here's the problem for Houston: Tight defense hasn't fazed Curry.
According to SportVU, nearly a third of Curry's shots in the Western Conference Finals have been classified as "tight," meaning a defender was within two-to-four feet at the time of the shot. Curry has knocked down 60 percent of those looks overall, including 50 percent from three.
Somehow, that's nearly 13 percentage points higher than his field-goal percentage (47.1) on "open" shots, but it pales in comparison to how lethal he's been when left wide-open.
During instances when the closest Houston defender has been more than six feet away, Curry has hit 83.3 percent of his total shots and 84.6 percent of his threes.
Let that sink in for a second.
Press up on him, and he's probably going to burn you. Leave him open, and the result is a foregone conclusion.
Houston can try to throw double-teams at Curry like crazy, but he's such a threat to burn the Rockets' defense with quick reads and passes upon recognizing the double that such a strategy carries extreme risk.
X-Factors
Golden State: Andre Iguodala
Yes, Andre Iguodala.
On a team renowned for its versatility at all five spots, Iguodala has epitomized the positional ambiguity that Kerr has used to switch everything on defense and allow his most lethal shooters to fly around for off-ball touches on offense.
In the postseason, Iguodala has dished out 43 assists and committed a grand total of four turnovers. That's an assist-to-turnover ratio of 10.75:1.
As a ball-handler, Iguodala has long been underrated. He's an expert at pushing the ball in transition, and his ability to feed lane-fillers, rim-runners and trailing shooters has added another dimension to the Warriors' second unit.
On the other end, Iguodala has continually flashed the chops that earned him first-team All-Defensive honors last season.
Thirteen games into his most successful postseason stint yet, shooters defended by Iguodala have recorded field-goal percentages 5.1 percentage points below their average, according to SportVU. On threes, wings are hitting just 26.7 percent of their shots, which clocks in at 7.8 percentage points below their average.
With max-contract studs all around him, Iguodala will never get proper recognition on a national level. However, his contributions remain an indispensable component of the Warriors' title solution.
Houston: Trevor Ariza
Given the struggles Houston has encountered trying to stop Curry, its most viable path to salvaging the series with a win may come in the form of matching the Warriors shot for shot from beyond the arc.
But in order to do so, swingman Trevor Ariza will need to rediscover a three-point stroke that has been elusive for the past two games.
In Games 2 and 3, Ariza shot an identical 3-of-8 from the field and 1-of-4 from three while scoring seven points per outing. After he went off for 20 points on 7-of-10 shooting (4-of-5 from three) in Game 1, Ariza has all but disappeared.
That drop-off isn't going to play kindly against the Warriors, who have made a concerted effort to smother Harden—daring supplementary scorers to swing the ball and eventually knock down open looks off of ball reversals.
Ariza is a huge piece of that equation, and he can jump-start the Rockets' last gasp by setting the tone with some early composure from beyond the arc.
Key Matchup
James Harden vs. Golden State's Waves of Defenders
The Rockets live and die on Harden's left-handed stroke, so it's no surprise they floundered when the MVP runner-up scored 17 points on 3-of-16 shooting in Game 3.
A huge reason for those struggles stemmed from Golden State's ability to start Harrison Barnes off as his primary defender and then sprinkle in Draymond Green and Iguodala throughout.
"Harden struggled to get clean looks against the bigger, stronger Barnes—who despite an 0-for-9 shooting performance in Game 3 has made a big impact for the Warriors in the playoffs," SB Nation's Liam Boylan-Pett wrote. "Barnes did his best to stay attached to Harden at the hip. And when Harden would get free, Barnes' length allowed him to get a hand up."
Golden State also stymied Harden with double-teams, which is why McHale urged his star 2-guard to read and react with more urgency in Game 4.
"Well, you've got to be more aggressive," McHale said, according to ESPN.com's Calvin Watkins. "It’s just all earlier decisions. If there's two [defenders] on you, get off it. It's the same thing we've talked about all along. He's just got to go play basketball."
According to SportVU, more than 50 percent of Harden's shots against the Warriors have come when he's touched the ball for more than six seconds at a time, while 42 percent have come when he's dribbled the ball at least seven times prior to shooting.
Isolations will always be a key component of Harden's arsenal, but against a Warriors defense that's hellbent on making him uncomfortable, a little less stagnancy could go a long way.
Prediction
Dwight Howard isn't going to let the Rockets go quietly.
"We just got to go out there and sell out to each other," he said after Game 3, per Feigen. "Trust each other and don’t quit on each other. We've got to believe. If there’s any doubt or any disbelief in your spirit, then you might as well say we’re finished."
Houston should come out guns blazing with its season on the line, but it needs to do so in a controlled manner. The Warriors can capitalize on nerves and sloppy play, so the Rockets must take after the West's No. 1 seed and whip the ball from side to side if they want to shift the series back to Oracle Arena.
However, it's playing with fire to pick against Golden State after Saturday night.
The Warriors looked like world-beaters in Game 3, and even if Curry does experience slight regression as a scorer Monday night, their defense should be able to frustrate Harden and limit Howard enough in the pick-and-roll to punch a ticket to the NBA Finals.
Prediction: Golden State 106, Houston 101
All statistics are current as of May 24 and courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless noted otherwise.
Alec Nathan covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @AlecBNathan.
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