Free Agency or Draft: How Should Houston Rockets Fill Biggest Offseason Needs?
In the midst of an inspirational playoff run, the Houston Rockets will ultimately need to prepare an offseason strategy. With a solid draft class, some quality free agents and some in-house questions to address, it should be another interesting summer for general manager Daryl Morey.
First of all, the Rockets need to decide which of their own they'd like to bring back. They have a few potential free agents that could be on the loose.
Jason Terry and Josh Smith have expiring deals after these playoffs. Both of these guys have been starting in the postseason, but only because of injuries at their position. At 37 years old, Terry may have another season in him, but any new deal would be for minimal money and short term.
Smith, on the other hand, has an interesting decision heading into free agency. Already due about $26 million from the Detroit Pistons, J-Smoove can sign wherever he chooses, with money not a major concern. At least, that's the hope if Houston wants to re-sign him. The Rockets let him shoot threes and he gets to throw alley-oops to his former AAU teammate Dwight Howard, but they can't afford to pay him the big bucks. The ball is in his court.
Houston also has to worry about a few options and qualifying offers.
Corey Brewer has a sizable player option next season if he decides to stay in Houston. With the salary cap expected to burst the season after next, taking the one-year option wouldn't be a bad move for Brew or the Rockets, who would love to have him back.
Patrick Beverley and K.J. McDaniels each have qualifying offers this summer, which would make them restricted free agents. Beverley is an emotional leader and solid defender at the point, and Houston is likely to retain him despite his current injury. However, the Rockets will definitely be on the lookout for another point guard this offseason to add to the rotation.
McDaniels has a lot of potential, and the Rockets will want him back, but only for the right price, considering he hasn't played a meaningful minute all season long. Unless another team tries to pry him away with a hefty contract, he could be back in a Rockets uniform as well.
It's unclear who the Rockets will retain and who will suit up elsewhere, but it could be that most if not all of these guys will be back next season. That being said, the Rockets do have some areas of need they'd like to address over the summer, either through free agency or the draft.
The biggest needs/weakest links currently for Houston are point guard and another big man, preferably a stretch power forward.
With Beverley coming back healthy, that still leaves old men Terry and Pablo Prigioni as the backup options. There is a definite possibility of an upgrade, and Morey likes to groom young talent as well. Nick Johnson could see a boost in playing time next season, but if the Rockets have a realistic shot at a championship next year, they'll want someone more reliable.
Also worth noting, the Rockets could dip into their stash of overseas rights to bring in an additional rotation player. The most likely candidate is point guard Sergio Llul, who may finally come to America after winning the championship with Real Madrid in Spain this past year. Llul is a ball-dominant combo-guard that could add something extra to Houston's bench.
In terms of free agency, however, the pickings are slim at point guard. Beyond Goran Dragic, who will most likely stay on board in Miami with the Heat, there isn't any top-tier talent available. Brandon Knight and Reggie Jackson are next best, but they are both restricted free agents on teams that just acquired them at the deadline and are almost undoubtedly staying put.
After those three, there really isn't anyone worth going after. Rajon Rondo is certainly not near the top of Morey's watch-list. Do the Rockets take Jeremy Lin back? Not likely. C.J. Watson, Norris Cole and Mo Williams are guys that could probably help, but they're nothing to get excited over.
Odds are Morey stands pat at the point position in terms of free agency. It's unlikely he'll break up this core with a blockbuster trade either, which leaves the draft. There are some quality options that Houston could realistically land at No. 18 in the first round. The likes of Jerian Grant, Terry Rozier and Tyus Jones could be available.
As far as big men go, it's pretty much more of the same. LaMarcus Aldridge, Paul Millsap or Kevin Love would obviously be huge, but it's pretty unlikely that Houston could land either of them. Thaddeus Young or David West would be intriguing, but Morey would have to meticulously move some money around.
Odds are, the Rockets use the draft to address most of their pressing needs, and basically stick with their guns to give it another go next season. A trip to the Western Conference Finals without two starters in Beverly and Donatas Motiejunas is nothing to hang your head over.
The current core obviously already has the talent and pedigree to make a deep run. If Morey gets his chance to bring in a third star over the summer or at the trade deadline he'll probably pull the trigger but expect a very similar team to return to the court in October.
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