2015 Fantasy Football Outlook for Dallas Cowboys Stars
The Dallas Cowboys stars will take to the air in 2015 with an uncertain backfield situation in DeMarco Murray’s wake. Jason Witten, Tony Romo and Dez Bryant will threaten defenses deep and through the middle, allowing lesser running backs to carry some fantasy value behind the league’s best offensive line.
Scott Linehan officially takes over as Dallas’ offensive coordinator after he split duties with Bill Callahan in 2014. Linehan’s reputation as a pass-first coordinator didn’t materialize in the Cowboys’ balanced approach.
The offense finished fifth in scoring and seventh in yards—sixth in standard-fantasy scoring—in Linehan’s first season as play-caller. Dallas’ best players flourished because Linehan believes in focusing on the greatest talent regardless of scheme, according to ESPN.com's Jean-Jacques Taylor.
"You call plays that are very familiar to the players, plays you feel comfortable about and plays they have a lot of history with, and trust that Tony will find the guy who has the best matchup," Linehan said.
The running game should take a step back, since no single backup is capable of filling Murray’s shoes. However, fantasy owners can expect Dallas’ starters in the passing game to enjoy a more productive outlook in 2015 as a result.
Players are shown in ascending order from least to most valuable from a fantasy perspective in 2015.
Honorable Mentions
1 of 10
Brandon Weeden, QB
Last year Weeden started in Week 9 against the top-rated Arizona Cardinals defense and looked like a backup. If Tony Romo goes down again in 2015, look elsewhere for a replacement.
Synjyn Days, RB
Days earns mention simply due to his experience in Georgia Tech’s run-heavy scheme. Four backs are ahead of the undrafted free agent on the depth chart, but no Cowboys running back should consider his job solidified at this point.
Devin Street, WR
Todd Archer of ESPN.com reported Street is running with the first team during Dez Bryant’s absence at OTAs. The 2014 fifth-rounder out of Pittsburgh saw light duty with the offense in his rookie campaign.
His position in practice might be a good sign, except Dallas just signed A.J. Jenkins to compete with Street for a backup spot. He carries scant value in dynasty leagues and none in redraft.
A.J. Jenkins, WR
Dallas signed Jenkins Tuesday after he worked out for the team last week, according to the Star-Telegram’s Clarence E. Hill Jr. on Twitter:
"Per a source, the Cowboys are adding WR A.J Jenkins to roster. He was part of workout group last week.
— Clarence Hill (@clarencehilljr) May 26, 2015
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The Illinois product was the first-round pick of the San Francisco 49ers in 2012. He only played three games his rookie year and was subsequently traded to the Kansas City Chiefs in 2013. He made 17 catches in 25 games before his release in February.
Jenkins acknowledges this is his last shot in the NFL, according to Brandon George of the Dallas Morning News: “My clock is ticking. I got to hurry up and make some plays and do something.”
Romo is the first elite quarterback Jenkins will play for in the pros, which means he might be worth a speculative add to see if there’s anything left of his first-round potential.
Gavin Escobar, TE
The Cowboys spent a second-round pick in 2013 on Escobar, expecting the 6’6”, 254-pounder to replace the aging Jason Witten. So far, it seems Witten isn’t interested in passing the baton.
The San Diego State Aztec product is a touchdown machine, nabbing six in 18 career receptions. Perhaps with DeMarco Murray gone, Dallas will resort more to a two-tight end approach in the red zone, which would increase Escobar’s value from a fantasy afterthought to an interesting reserve in redraft leagues.
Otherwise, he should only be owned in dynasty leagues.
Lance Dunbar, RB
2 of 10
Dunbar agreed to Dallas’ one-year tender after no other teams showed interest in the restricted free agent, according to ESPN’s Adam Caplan on Twitter.
"#Cowboys RB Lance Dunbar signed his RFA tender.
— Adam Caplan (@caplannfl) April 21, 2015
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The 5’8”, 195-pound 2012 undrafted free agent from the North Texas Mean Green will continue to see light duty as a passing-down back. He could replace Dwayne Harris as the primary special teams return man, according to Todd Archer of ESPN.com.
Dunbar doesn't hold much fantasy relevance even if everyone above him on the depth chart were sidelined.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 300 all-purpose yards and zero touchdowns.
Ryan Williams, RB
3 of 10
Dallas signed Williams to a two-year deal in January after he spent all 2014 on the Cowboys’ practice squad, according to Clarence E. Hill Jr. of the Star-Telegram. The extension included a $240,000 signing bonus, $40,000 more than offered to Darren McFadden in March, per Over the Cap.
The Dallas Morning News’ Jon Machota tweeted Cowboys vice president Stephen Jones thinks Williams could be the No. 1 running back in 2015:
"Stephen Jones: Ryan Williams needs to improve pass blocking but "he'll certainly be a factor in who's going to be our [RB] this year."
— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) May 7, 2015
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Jones told season-ticket holders that Williams’ presence on the roster kept the Cowboys from drafting another running back in the later rounds, according to Machota: “Many times we were looking at backs later in the draft that we compared to Ryan and didn’t feel like they were as good as he was.”
But the Cowboys also tried out four veterans last week. Ben Tate, Daniel Thomas, Felix Jones and Ronnie Wingo all remain unsigned, but it’s a clear indication the franchise isn’t satisfied with its current cast in line to replace DeMarco Murray.
The Arizona Cardinals took Williams at No. 38 out of West Virginia in 2011, but he played in just five games over three seasons due to multiple injuries. Fantasy owners should stay mindful of that weak track record even if the four-year veteran ascends to Dallas’ RB1.
Don’t spend anything higher than a mid-round pick even if Williams gets the starting nod.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 100 carries for 350 yards and two touchdowns.
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Cole Beasley, WR
4 of 10
Dallas committed to Beasley—a restricted free agent—with a four-year contract extension in March, according to Yahoo Sports’ Rand Getlin on Twitter.
"Sources: The #Cowboys and WR Cole Beasley have agreed to terms on a 4-year deal worth $13.6M with $7M in guarantees and a $4M signing bonus.
— Rand Getlin (@Rand_Getlin) March 3, 2015
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The 5’8”, 174-pound slot receiver joined the Cowboys as a 2012 rookie free agent out of SMU. He averaged 38 receptions for 398 yards and three touchdowns the past two seasons.
The bulk of Beasley’s work came in the second half last season, which indicates he could become Tony Romo’s third receiving option in 2015, surpassing Terrance Williams.
Beasley is worth a reserve look in points-per-reception leagues, but he will need to sustain his second-half/playoff production to merit a roster spot in standard leagues.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 50 receptions, 550 yards and five touchdowns.
Terrance Williams, WR
5 of 10
Williams bookended a prolonged scoring drought with clusters of touchdowns to begin and end 2014. He caught only 37 passes, but eight went for scores. The ratio skyrocketed in the playoffs with three of his four catches ending in paydirt.
Williams is enjoying working with Tony Romo after the quarterback wasn’t available for offseason workouts due to back injuries the past two years, according to Todd Archer of ESPN.com.
“I'm still trying to find ways to come out there and have him look my way the same way he looks at Dez and Witten," Williams said. "Now, this spring, I'm just basically with Tony doing whatever he's telling me to do, because I want him, every time he breaks the huddle, to have somebody else he can count on.”
Even with the promise of more involvement for the 2013 third-rounder out of Baylor, Williams figures to be drafted as a reserve in the 11th or 12th round. He’s a good value deep in the draft but too inconsistent to count on regularly.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 45 receptions for 720 yards and five touchdowns.
Darren McFadden, RB
6 of 10
Dallas signed McFadden early in the free-agency process in search of replacements for DeMarco Murray, tweeted Adam Schefter of ESPN:
"Cowboys have agreed to a two-year deal with Darren McFadden, per multiple reports.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 13, 2015
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Yahoo’s Charles Robinson tweeted Dallas intended to use the 27-year-old as a backup:
"#Cowboys began entertaining idea of signing Darren McFadden weeks ago, & design was as a home run hitting backup. Not sure that has changed.
— Charles Robinson (@CharlesRobinson) March 13, 2015
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It’s tempting to believe the oft-injured speedster could flourish away from the Oakland Raiders' dysfunction behind the best offensive line in football, according to Pro Football Focus.
But even a seventh-round price tag isn’t worth spending to find out. Let somebody else in your league toil over the Cowboys’ running back committee on a weekly basis, unless McFadden drops past the eighth round.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 100 carries for 400 yards and three touchdowns, plus 30 receptions for 180 yards and one score.
Joseph Randle, RB
7 of 10
Randle is the highest-ranking returning member of the Cowboys' prolific backfield from 2014. He carried the ball 51 times for 343 yards and three touchdowns in relief of the league’s leading rusher, DeMarco Murray.
At 6’0”, 210 pounds, the 2013 fifth-rounder out of Oklahoma State might be the best candidate fill Murray’s shoes in 2015. Then again, Stephen Jones hinted no single player will be the lead back this season, according to Jon Machota of the Dallas Morning News: “[The Cowboys] may end up being more efficient and more explosive by doing our running back by committee rather than putting so much pressure on one back.”
Owner and de facto general manager Jerry Jones suggested the search for a true No. 1 running back could still take a dramatic turn in a recent interview with Shan & RJ on 103.5 The Fan:
"It's a bitter pill to swallow. I've done that two times, and I'm telling you that hurts bad the next draft day. I'd be reluctant to, but certainly if the right situation came along that could improve us now, with where we are with Romo, his career and where we are with what we've put together, it's a good time to go for it.
"
The only reasonable target of such a weighty offer is Adrian Peterson. The disgruntled Minnesota Viking and Texas native said “it would be nice” to come to Dallas, according to the Dallas Morning News.
As it stands right now Randle is a great eighth- to ninth-round flex if he wins the starting job over Darren McFadden and/or anyone else Dallas signs before training camp. There’s no reason to draft him as anything but a reserve if he doesn’t.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 150 carries for 600 yards and six touchdowns.
Jason Witten, TE
8 of 10
Witten’s career arc is well into natural decline at age 33. He finished 10th among tight ends in fantasy scoring for 2014, his first double-digit placing since 2006. Tony Romo took the reins from Drew Bledsoe that season, and Witten has been one of his top targets annually, including last year: He ranked second on the team with 90 targets.
The 12-year veteran is a 6’5”, 257-pound athlete who eats up yardage and finishes in the red zone.
Witten’s decline in production in 2014 was also due to a change in offensive philosophy. Dallas ran the ball so effectively in 2014 that it didn’t need to pass as often, which dropped Witten’s targets outside of triple digits for the first time since 2006.
A model of consistency, the All-Pro hasn’t missed a game since his rookie season. Witten is an accomplished blocker as well, as he stayed on the field for all but 11 of the offensive snaps, according to Pro Football Focus.
PFF graded Witten second only to Rob Gronkowski among tight ends.
Witten makes a great value pick in the lower tier of TE1s if he’s still around in the eighth round of 12-team drafts. He’ll be more reliable than Jordan Cameron, Julius Thomas and Zach Ertz in 2015.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 70 receptions for 770 yards and five touchdowns.
Tony Romo, QB
9 of 10
The biggest challenge for Dallas and Romo is for the Pro Bowl quarterback to stay healthy at 35 years old. The Cowboys committed three of their last four first-round picks to offensive linemen—per Wikipedia—while adding a first-round rated talent in La’el Collins as a rookie free agent after the draft.
Michael Florek of the Dallas Morning News reported Romo helped recruit Collins after the top prospect out of LSU plummeted out of draft contention while police questioned him regarding a double-murder. Romo believes Collins and the rest of Dallas’ top-rated O-line is the key to prolonging his career, according to Florek.
"When you have a good offensive line like we do the thought definitely crosses your mind to ensure you do everything possible to play longer than maybe what you had envisioned. We’ll reassess that in a few years. My wife will tell you, I’m talking a little more long term than I maybe had been. So we’ll see.
"
Romo enjoyed a career-best passer rating in 2014 (113.2), which was also good enough for tops in the league and sixth-highest all-time. He faced less pressure thanks to a punishing ground game that shouldn’t lose much steam despite DeMarco Murray’s departure to the Philadelphia Eagles.
Excluding the one start in 2014 the 11-year veteran missed with a back injury, Romo finished seventh in fantasy scoring average among quarterbacks with 17.5 points per game, according to ESPN.com.
He’s worth the fifth-rounder he’s currently projected to cost, with a possible bump ahead of Matt Ryan and Cam Newton given the Cowboys’ superior stability on offense. Trust Romo as a value QB1 in 2015.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 3,800 yards passing, 31 touchdowns and 10 interceptions
Dez Bryant, WR
10 of 10
Dallas already tendered Bryant the one-year, franchise tag worth $12.8 million, but Stephen Jones wants to lock up a long-term deal, tweeted Jon Machota of the Dallas Morning News:
"Stephen Jones on @gbagnation: Nothing new on Dez Bryant contract. "You have to be patient. Our #1 goal is still to get him signed longterm."
— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) April 21, 2015
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The deadline to sign the franchise tag is July 15.
The sticking point between Bryant and the Cowboys is not the money but the insurance, according to Jean-Jacques Taylor of ESPN.com. Dallas wants contractual assurances Bryant won’t get caught up in any more off-field trouble, which he hasn’t since a domestic violence incident involving his mother in 2012.
Taylor also reported Jerry Jones believes Bryant wouldn’t be a Cowboy except for character concerns dropping him to the end of the first round in the 2010 draft. Jones also asserts other teams wouldn’t have dealt with Bryant as constructively as the Cowboys did, who initiated guidelines to help the All-Pro curtail off-field problems, according to Calvin Watkins of ESPN.com.
Bryant’s leverage is his on-field performance, including the league-leading 16 receiving touchdowns he posted in 2014, according to ESPN.com.
He is deserving of a first-round selection in all fantasy formats regardless of his contract situation. The five-year veteran owns a comfortable seat in the top 10 among wide receivers since he got his life on track.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 90 receptions for 1,350 yards and 15 touchdowns.
NFL statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference , fantasy stats provided by CBSSports.com, fantasy draft projections courtesy of Fantasy Pros, contract and salary cap information provided by Over the Cap and h/t to Rotoworld for tweets and quotes unless otherwise noted.
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