2015 NBA Offseason Will Determine Ranging Value of Big Men in Today's League
Does size still matter in the NBA?
That's a question league executives will ponder and ultimately answer over the coming months.
Both the free-agent market and incoming draft class are overloaded with supersized frontcourt players of all types. Interior scorers, high-post producers, rim protectors and stretch shooters are all up for grabs in what should be a fascinating, revelatory offseason.
Conventional wisdom holds that conventional centers have been rendered ineffective by the game's shift to a more wide-open, up-and-down style of play. Plodding post players are seen as antiques. Charlotte Hornets back-to-the-basket center Al Jefferson even carries the nickname Big Classic, according to his Basketball-Reference.com player page.
"The NBA center has become more archaic than a typewriter," the Denver Post's Mark Kiszla wrote after the center position was removed from All-Star ballots in 2012. "Shaquille O'Neal's size 22 shoes should now be considered a museum piece."
Without question, traditional bigs are becoming harder to find. But no one should treat this breed as if it's closing in on extinction.
Not when Duke's Jahlil Okafor, whose low-post skills seem like they were plucked out of an NBA history book, is in the running to be the first overall selection of the upcoming draft, according to ESPN's Chad Ford.
Nothing about Okafor's skill set is conducive to the pace-and-space game.
The 19-year-old's strengths are obvious and impressive. He's an absolute beast on the low block who combines brute force and fantastic footwork into a wildly productive package (17.3 points per game on 66.4 percent shooting at Duke).
But if teams want versatility—perhaps this season's biggest buzzword—they won't find it in him.
"All of Okafor's strengths are ultimately packed into the same basket," wrote Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman. "He could be in trouble if that basket of post moves doesn't play as tough in the pros, considering he's not a difference-maker defensively and can't stretch the floor on offense."
If the NBA is devaluing Okafor's biggest weapon and coveting the things he doesn't have, one would think that Okafor is in for a long night on June 25. But Minnesota Timberwolves president of basketball operations and coach Flip Saunders reportedly "really likes Okafor," per Draft Express' Jonathan Givony.
Saunders, unsurprisingly, isn't tipping his hand.
"It's not really a two-player race," he said in reference to Okafor and Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns, per Basketball Insiders' Moke Hamilton. "... There's a lot of guys that intrigue me that we've looked at."
Even if Towns' name is the first one called, Okafor might not be waiting long to hear his. The Los Angeles Lakers are said to be eyeing either of the two big men at the No. 2 pick, according to Mike Bresnahan of the Los Angeles Times.
Okafor's final draft slot will show exactly what the league—or at least what one team—thinks of low-post scoring. With a contemporary big such as Towns, plus a pair of potentially prolific guards in D'Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay, close by on the draft board, Okafor's stock will indicate the throwback player's place in the modern game.
And another draft prospect could help shed light on the NBA's preferred brand of big man.
Latvia's Kristaps Porzingis plays a distinctly new-age game. The 19-year-old 7-footer plays both above the rim and beyond the arc. He's an excellent athlete, a versatile player on either end and a mountain of untapped potential.
"I think he's a lock for the top five, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him go as high as top three," one executive said of Porzingis, per NBA.com's Scott Howard-Cooper. "He's like Dirk Nowitzki or Pau Gasol."
Porzingis is also raw as sushi, beanpole skinny and a boom-or-bust prospect. The reward is obviously high—How good does an athletic Dirk-Gasol hybrid sound?!—but the risk is real. (One executive also said Nikoloz Tskitishvili "could be better than Nowitzki" in 2002, per ESPN's Ford. Tskitishvili was the sixth pick that year and out of the NBA by 2006.)
The draft is one big guessing game, but we can learn from how it's played. Will someone buy high on Okafor and hope his traditional talents translate to the big stage? How early will a team take up the Porzingis risk-reward gamble?
Those answers will help paint a picture of how the league views size. And the ones provided during free agency should help fill in the blanks.
No fewer than three post players should leave this summer with max money in hand: Marc Gasol, LaMarcus Aldridge and DeAndre Jordan. Each has something dramatically different to offer.
Gasol does pretty much everything inside the three-point line. He can anchor a team on both sides of the ball, score from the high post in, pick apart defenses with passes and build a defensive barricade around the basket.
Aldridge can't match Gasol's two-way impact, but the former has a wider shooting range and more per-game production. Aldridge has averaged at least 23 points and 10 rebounds during each of the last two seasons. No other player can make that claim, according to Basketball-Reference.
Jordan is probably one step below those two, which is saying something considering he was just named first-team All-Defense and third-team All-NBA. Jordan has led the league in rebounding and field-goal percentage both of the last two seasons—a feat last accomplished by Hall of Famer Wilt Chamberlain—and finished this campaign ranked third in total blocks.
Any team with salary-cap space and a frontcourt opening should try chasing any one of the three. The question then becomes which domino has to drop first for the others to find homes. And that may come down to which weakness are teams most willing to overlook: Gasol's underwhelming athleticism, Aldridge's so-so defense or Jordan's lack of self-sufficient offense?
Gasol might be the most skilled of the three, Aldridge is the best shooter, and Jordan's explosiveness provides two-way perks in the pick-and-roll game. So, what do NBA teams value most: post play, floor spacing or long, bouncy youth? And how do other free-agent bigs such as Paul Millsap, Draymond Green (restricted), Greg Monroe and Brook Lopez (player option) impact that discussion?
We probably won't know until the market officially opens on July 1.
Come summer's end, though, we'll get a clear view of the NBA's appreciation of its giants.
