The Ideal 2015 NBA Draft Prospect for Every Lottery Team
Chances are, not every lottery team will emerge from the 2015 NBA draft with nothing but warm and fuzzy feelings. They'll all put on brave faces and make the best of their realities, but at least one organization is going to watch as all of its ideal picks are taken off the board before it's on the clock.
That won't happen in our ideal world, though.
As we run through the 14 lottery picks—essentially building a mini mock draft of sorts—we'll be looking at whom each squad would love to add. Each team is going to take the player who makes the most sense for their organization, regardless of rumors about early interest in certain prospects.
Once a player is listed as the ideal pick for a certain team, he's no longer eligible for the remaining lottery squads, which may put some of the franchises drafting later in the proceedings in a bit of a pickle. But they'll still manage.
This is a draft class with a wealth of upper-tier talent, even if there doesn't seem to be as much superstar potential as we've seen in some years.
1. Minnesota Timberwolves: Karl-Anthony Towns
1 of 14
School: Kentucky
Position: PF/C
Age: 19
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 10.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.5 steals, 2.3 blocks, 31.4 PER
The Minnesota Timberwolves really can't make a poor choice with the top overall selection. Drafting Jahlil Okafor would be just fine, as he'd add another element to an offense that struggled throughout the 2014-15 season.
That said, picking Karl-Anthony Towns is even more ideal. His developing jumper will help space the court for the relentless driving of the other young players on the Minnesota roster, and his rim protection brings something completely new to the table.
According to NBA.com's SportVU data, the Wolves were by far the most porous team at the rim last season, allowing opponents to shoot 57.9 percent in that situation. Fixing that issue has to be one of the team's biggest priorities, and the two top-tier centers are polar opposites in that regard.
Okafor doesn't play much defense at all, and his plodding, meticulous and occasionally unfocused style will only make Minnesota's primary problem worse. Towns, on the other hand, thrived when he was asked to serve as the last line of defense.
This decision really shouldn't be that hard, even if both options will significantly improve the team with the NBA's worst record.
Plan B: Don't need one when picking first
2. Los Angeles Lakers: Jahlil Okafor
2 of 14
School: Duke
Position: C
Age: 19
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 17.3 points, 8.5 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.8 steals, 1.4 blocks, 30.7 PER
With Karl-Anthony Towns off the board, the decision should be rather easy for the Los Angeles Lakers. Emmanuel Mudiay and D'Angelo Russell would both be franchise-changing players in the backcourt, but acquiring a big and continuing the organization's tradition of dominant centers would be an even more impactful move.
Of course, that's not guaranteed, as Bleacher Report's Josh Martin made clear while diving deep into the Lakers' lasting legacy at the 5:
"But upholding such a star-studded tradition will require much more of Okafor or Towns than simply being selected second overall. The proper quotient of instruction, patience and encouragement from the team's coaching staff, led by Byron Scott, will be crucial to creating the kind of environment in which the Lakers' next new hope can learn the ropes and thrive between the lines.
"
Towns would be the truly ideal pick here, given his two-way prowess, but Okafor is a tremendous consolation prize. He and Julius Randle would form a dynamic frontcourt duo long after Kobe Bryant had suited up in his final game, and they'd be complemented by a backcourt that already features a promising player in the form of Jordan Clarkson.
After moving up in the draft lottery, the guarantee of landing whichever center the Minnesota Timberwolves don't select is exactly what should have everyone in the organization jumping with joy.
Plan B: Emmanuel Mudiay
3. Philadelphia 76ers: D'Angelo Russell
3 of 14
School: Ohio State
Position: PG/SG
Age: 19
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 19.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.3 blocks, 26.6 PER
This one is about as easy as it gets. Even if the ping pong balls had bounced differently and left the Philadelphia 76ers drafting at No. 1, D'Angelo Russell would be the ideal choice.
With Nerlens Noel and Joel Embiid set to play together throughout the 2015-16 campaign, there's no need to acquire yet another big man. Finding a franchise player to run the point is a much better idea, and Russell narrowly edges out Emmanuel Mudiay.
Why? Because the Sixers need someone who can shoot the ball from the outside, not a player who thrives driving and kicking. Mudiay would certainly be a terrific pickup, but his skills would be depressed in Philadelphia, due both to clogged driving lanes and the necessity of passing to shooters who can't actually, well, shoot.
Plus, there's a chance the Sixers could be acquiring a Stephen Curry of their own, if you're to believe Russell himself.
"I don't want to sound like I'm overdoing it since he's the MVP of the league, but when I watch his game, I see myself," the Ohio State product told Philly.com's Keith Pompey. "The plays he makes, the shots he takes and passes he makes, I see it before it even happens. I feel like that's what separates me from a lot."
Plan B: Emmanuel Mudiay
4. New York Knicks: Emmanuel Mudiay
4 of 14
International Team: Guangdong Foshan
Position: PG
Age: 19
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 18.0 points, 6.3 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.1 blocks, 18.9 PER
Emmanuel Mudiay has already been featured as plan B for two of the first three teams on the docket, but now he's actually coming off the board.
Maybe he's not an ideal fit in the triangle offense. Maybe he needs the ball in his hands quite often, which will make for some interesting give-and-take alongside Carmelo Anthony. Maybe the New York Knicks won't even think about drafting him, instead trading their pick for a more established commodity.
But while players such as Justise Winslow, Willie Cauley-Stein and others are intriguing, Phil Jackson needs talent on his roster above all else. And with the two elite bigs, as well as D'Angelo Russell, already wearing different uniforms, there's only one member of the leading quartet left on the board.
Mudiay's game is eerily reminiscent of John Wall's, and as a result, the Knickerbockers would have to make adjustments somewhere. Either Derek Fisher would need to loosen the restrictions on his offense and tell Anthony that he can't dominate the ball quite so much, or Mudiay would have to work relentlessly on becoming more of a spot-up shooter.
That's a problem worth having, if for no other reason than the Knicks' dire need to acquire their first franchise point guard in a long while.
Plan B: Justise Winslow
5. Orlando Magic: Justise Winslow
5 of 14
School: Duke
Position: SF
Age: 19
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 12.6 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.9 blocks, 22.3 PER
The Orlando Magic don't have any glaring needs, given their youthful upside at virtually every position.
Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo are quite clearly the backcourt of the future. Nikola Vucevic is entrenched at center, and Aaron Gordon should use improved health to cement himself as a rotation stalwart at power forward. Tobias Harris could qualify here as well, but he's a restricted free agent and isn't guaranteed to be back with the Magic.
And that's why small forward should be the primary target, though acquiring Kristaps Porzingis—who has a completely different skill set at the 4 than that of Gordon—wouldn't be a bad alternative. Justise Winslow and Stanley Johnson are the two clear-cut elites at the position, and it's Winslow's well-rounded offensive arsenal that pushes him toward the top of the draft board.
Winslow doesn't need the ball in his hands to thrive, and he'll fit the uptempo mentality of the guards on the roster. One day, a fast break run by Payton or Oladipo with Winslow and Gordon sprinting down the floor en route to an alley-oop finish will give defenders nightmares.
Plan B: Stanley Johnson
6. Sacramento Kings: Kristaps Porzingis
6 of 14International Team: Baloncesto Sevilla
Position: PF
Age: 19
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 11.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 0.9 steals, 1.1 blocks, 19.7 PER
The Sacramento Kings have to put a big man next to DeMarcus Cousins who can either protect the rim or spread out a defense with his perimeter shooting. Both would be ideal, but none of the players who seem capable of filing those roles—Myles Turner, for example—should be taken with such an early pick.
Everything will boil down to Kristaps Porzingis and Willie Cauley-Stein.
The former has shooting ability that makes him look quite a bit like a younger version of Dirk Nowitzki, draining mid-range jumpers while using fadeaways and great body control in the air. The latter is a fantastic defender who can serve as an anchor on the interior and also display some mobility against perimeter players.
But due to Cauley-Stein's offensive limitations, Porzingis has the higher ceiling, and that should push him just ahead on the Kings' draft board. After all, he profiles as a quality defender and adequate rim-protecting presence, so long as his strength catches up with his length.
Plan B: Willie Cauley-Stein
7. Denver Nuggets: Stanley Johnson
7 of 14
School: Arizona
Position: SF
Age: 18
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 13.8 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.4 blocks, 22.5 PER
The Denver Nuggets need a player with superstar potential, and it would be terrific if he could line up on the wing. After all, the team is entering the offseason with Ty Lawson, Kenneth Faried and Jusuf Nurkic still on the roster, and though there's no telling whether that will change at any point during the summer, small forward still has to be a priority.
Fortunately, there's a player who could fill both criteria.
"I'm the best player in the draft," Stanley Johnson said when asked why a team should pick him, per MassLive.com's Jay King.
That confidence is a positive, even if his statement is a bit inaccurate. While Johnson's not the best player in this class right now, he could be down the road.
Already one of the best defenders set to enter the NBA ranks, Johnson's ability to knock down outside shots and attack the rim with athletic slashes show he has all sorts of upside. On top of that, his work ethic should allow him to get close to his ceiling.
Plan B: Mario Hezonja
8. Detroit Pistons: Willie Cauley-Stein
8 of 14
School: Kentucky
Position: C
Age: 21
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 8.9 points, 6.4 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.7 blocks, 23.8 PER
Filling a glaring hole at small forward has to be a top priority for the Detroit Pistons, but it would be too big a reach to take either Kelly Oubre or Sam Dekker with the No. 8 pick. Rest assured that if Stanley Johnson or Justise Winslow slips this far in the proceedings, either would easily supplant Willie Cauley-Stein as the ideal pick.
But even if they don't, acquiring a versatile defensive center is another need, per Vince Ellis of the Detroit Free Press:
"It might seem odd for the Pistons to consider a center with Andre Drummond on the roster.
But president Stan Van Gundy stresses that a team must be able to match up against smaller, quicker teams and lumbering teams like Memphis.
The Pistons struggled guarding the pick-and-roll and gave up too many points in the paint.
Cauley-Stein is considered a solid pick-and-roll defender and is good at rim protection.
"
Had Karl-Anthony Towns gone to a team other than Kentucky, Cauley-Stein may not have looked like an intriguing candidate at No. 8.
But being forced out of the paint and then showing off his stuff against more versatile players proved just how quick this big man is on his feet, and that ability to hedge and recover is doing wonders for his draft stock.
Don't be scared by the drama when the Pistons last rostered too many big men. Cauley-Stein has an entirely different skill set from that of either Drummond or Greg Monroe (if he returns in free agency), making him more complementary than conflicting.
Plan B: Kelly Oubre
9. Charlotte Hornets: Mario Hezonja
9 of 14International Team: FC Barcelona
Position: SG/SF
Age: 20
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 6.1 points, 2.0 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.1 blocks, 13.4 PER
The Charlotte Hornets have to improve on the offensive end, and the best way to do that is by adding a wing player who can create his own shot on a consistent basis while knocking down looks from the perimeter. Gerald Henderson is an athletic slasher who can provide some points, but Michael Kidd-Gilchrist's shot is still broken, and Lance Stephenson was an unmitigated disaster.
Charlotte scored only 100.1 points per 100 possessions this past season, giving the former Bobcats an offensive rating better than only those produced by the New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers—two offenses you definitely don't want to be compared to.
An infusion of talent is vital, and Mario Hezonja can provide it.
The Croatian scorer is a fantastic isolation player who can get his shot up in nearly any situation, and he thrives running pick-and-roll sets as the primary ball-handler. Plus, he drained 39.1 percent of his deep looks while playing for FC Barcelona in the Spanish ACB. The arc there is closer to the hoop than it is in the NBA, but it's worth noting that Hezonja lofted up 6.7 three-point attempts per 36 minutes.
Still only 20 years old, Hezonja is a potential superstar. If he were a more established commodity, he'd have a serious chance of going in the top three, so Charlotte could be looking at a major steal here.
Plan B: Devin Booker
10. Miami Heat: Kelly Oubre
10 of 14
School: Kansas
Position: SF
Age: 19
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 9.3 points, 5.0 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.4 blocks, 21.1 PER
The Miami Heat need help across the board but only so they can have more depth for their expected starting five. Assuming Dwyane Wade, Luol Deng and Goran Dragic all return to finish what they started, the Heat will have one of the better cores in the NBA, even if a glaring lack of depth could ultimately hold them back.
It doesn't need help at point guard (see: Chalmers, Mario; and Napier, Shabazz), but Miami could justify taking the best player available at any other position. For example, adding more depth to the frontcourt is important, since relying on an aging Chris Andersen and post-meniscus tear Josh McRoberts is a scary proposition.
Finding a wing contributor, however, should be the top priority. With Deng, who has a player option for next year, serving as the starting lineup's biggest flight risk and the huge need for an insurance policy behind both him and the oft-injured Wade, Kelly Oubre is the obvious choice.
The Kansas freshman needs to add strength and prove that he can be mentally engaged throughout an entire game after he proved prone to checking out of plays and forgetting to involve his teammates during his lone season under Bill Self. But when he's giving 100 percent, his outside shooting, length and athleticism make him look like the second coming of Paul George.
Just imagine the Heat trotting out Dragic, Wade, Deng, Chris Bosh and Hassan Whiteside with a developing version of the Indiana Pacers superstar coming off the bench.
Scary, right?
Plan B: Frank Kaminsky
11. Indiana Pacers: Myles Turner
11 of 14
School: Texas
Position: PF/C
Age: 19
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 10.1 points, 6.5 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 0.3 steals, 2.6 blocks, 25.5 PER
Myles Turner is by no means a polished product, but he has the potential to morph into the two-way presence the Indiana Pacers haven't had at center in a long time. Whether Roy Hibbert leaves in free agency or stays, a healthy Paul George means this franchise can afford to take time for development.
If the Pacers do, this former Texas Longhorn could absolutely pay off, asserting himself as the incumbent big man's long-term replacement.
Though Turner struggled to connect from the perimeter during his lone season in Austin, he shows good shooting mechanics, and his work at the charity stripe gives hope that he'll develop more consistency from the outside in the future. There are obviously no guarantees, but his high release and desire to function as a stretch big does bode well.
Plus, he's a strong defensive prospect, per Derek Bodner of DraftExpress.com:
"While not an explosive athlete, Turner combines his plus length with excellent timing and great shot blocking instincts to be a consistent factor on this end of the court. Similarly, while Turner could certainly stand to fill out his frame with much-needed strength, he has good technique on the defensive glass and shows a nose for the ball, and does a good job collecting rebounds outside of his area for a guy who isn't all that quick.
"
Turner can contribute on both ends of the floor, and he has plenty of upside. That type of player is rather difficult to find outside the top 10, which makes the need for patience easier to swallow.
Plan B: Frank Kaminsky
12. Utah Jazz: Frank Kaminsky
12 of 14
School: Wisconsin
Position: PF/C
Age: 22
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 18.8 points, 8.2 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 0.8 steals, 1.5 blocks, 34.4 PER
It's best player available here. The Utah Jazz don't have to target any specific position, as they're brimming with young talent across the board.
Even as Trey Burke continues to look like a bust, Dante Exum's potential gives the team hope at the point. Alec Burks will return and join Elijah Millsap and Rodney Hood at shooting guard, while Gordon Hayward is entrenched at small forward. Meanwhile, Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert are locked in at the two biggest spots in the lineup.
So, what exactly do the Jazz need?
They could stand to acquire some depth and a veteran presence, but they don't have to target a specific spot in the lineup for those new arrivals. Again, they can just take the best player available. In this case, it would be Frank Kaminsky, fresh off his incredible final season with the Wisconsin Badgers.
There's nothing complicated about it.
Plan B: Sam Dekker
13. Phoenix Suns: Sam Dekker
13 of 14
School: Wisconsin
Position: SF
Age: 21
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 13.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.5 blocks, 25.5 PER
Phoenix Suns head coach Jeff Hornacek, doubling down on the desires expressed by general manager Ryan McDonough, told reporters what type of player his team needed to acquire this offseason, per Bright Side of the Sun's Dave King.
"We have two guys who can really penetrate, really good on pick and rolls. We need some shooting. If you have shooters to go with those main guys who can really penetrate, it's tough. How do you guard it?
Just look at the Clippers from last night. They've got shooters all over the place. They've got a guy who can go to the rim and catch lobs, a point guard who can break down pick-and-rolls and they basically get whatever they want. We just need to try to add some of those pieces
"
If Sam Dekker is off the board, there are plenty of shooters the Suns could acquire—Devin Booker, R.J. Hunter and others. But the Wisconsin small forward should be the top name on the wish list.
The 21-year-old can spread the defense with his ability to catch and shoot, and he can also connect from deep by creating his own look at the basket. Plus, his versatility allows him to contribute in plenty of other areas.
Dekker isn't a consistent marksman yet, as his 41.7 percent shooting from beyond the arc during the NCAA tournament is well above his career rate of 34.8 percent.
But why draft a specialist when you can get a more well-rounded player who also fills the primary need?
Plan B: Devin Booker
14. Oklahoma City Thunder: Devin Booker
14 of 14
School: Kentucky
Position: SG
Age: 18
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 10.0 points, 2.0 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.1 blocks, 19.4 PER
Per 40 minutes, Devin Booker averaged 18.7 points, 3.7 rebounds and 2.1 assists. His per-game numbers were significantly depressed because he had to share the court with so many other stars while playing in a platoon system under Kentucky head coach John Calipari. Additionally, the sharpshooting 2-guard hit 41.1 percent of his deep looks, taking 3.7 of them during his average outing.
The Oklahoma City Thunder don't have any huge needs, as Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka should be healthy going into the 2015-16 campaign, once more giving OKC one of the best trios in the Association. But with Jeremy Lamb having failed to pan out, it's time for a change at the 2, and Booker has star potential.
At the very least, he could help space the court with his marksmanship while providing some extra depth off the bench. As Shehan Peiris wrote for Bleacher Report while arguing that Booker should interest OKC, "The Thunder need a third scoring option on the wing, especially as a spot-up weapon (as opposed to an off-the-bounce playmaker) to maximize the team's offensive potential."
That's the best-case scenario—Booker turning into the third scoring option and slotting into the starting five. But when the worst-case scenario involves bringing a threatening three-point shooter off the bench, it's a solid addition at the end of the lottery.
Plan B: Cameron Payne
Note: All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from Sports-Reference and RealGM.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @fromal09.
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