With 1st Place Secure, NL East Likely in Nationals' Hands for Good

A couple of weeks ago, the Washington Nationals were 7-13 and in a spot where nobody expected them to be at any point in the 2015 season: dead last in the NL East. Disappointment, thy name was Nats.

Fast-forward to the present, however, and the Nationals are now 24-17 and exactly where everyone expected them to be: in first place in the NL East.

And given the circumstances, it's probably for good.

The latest act in Washington's surge went down Wednesday evening at Nationals Park, where the Nats beat the New York Yankees 3-2 to complete a two-game sweep.

Things got tense when an #UmpShow broke out in the third inning, resulting in star right fielder Bryce Harper and skipper Matt Williams being ejected, but seven innings of two-run ball by Jordan Zimmermann and a go-ahead RBI single by Denard Span in the seventh turned that into a mere subplot.

With the win, the Nationals have now won five in a row and 17 of their last 21. After starting out the season as cold as an iceberg's backside, they're now roughly as hot as the surface of the sun.

Meanwhile in New York, the Mets are headed in the opposite direction. The 11-game win streak that ran their record to 13-3 in late April is a distant memory, as more recent days have seen them lose seven out of 10. After losing sole possession of first place on Tuesday, it's now out of their hands completely.

Technically speaking, this doesn't mean the Mets can't win the NL East. But after ceremoniously accepting the first-place torch on Wednesday evening, it's just plain hard to see the Nationals giving it back.

Alex Brandon/Associated Press

It wasn't by accident that the Nationals started off so slowly this season. Early on, nothing was working. Their pitching staff, which was hyped as a potentially historic unit, was decidedly "meh." Their defense was a lot worse than that. Their offense, meanwhile, did little to help things.

But if you want reasons for Washington's turnaround, that's where you have to start.

According to FanGraphs, the Nationals began Wednesday with 149 runs scored and a .787 OPS over the last 30 days of action. Both figures were tops in baseball, and it was a collective effort.

Of the eight Nationals hitters who got the most playing time, only three rated as below average in adjusted offense (otherwise known as wRC+, where an even 100 denotes league average):

Player	G	PA	wRC+
Bryce Harper	27	119	248
Ian Desmond	27	117	60
Ryan Zimmerman	27	114	92
Yunel Escobar	25	108	124
Denard Span	22	103	145
Danny Espinosa	25	97	117
Jayson Werth	21	93	75
Wilson Ramos	22	87	117

It's easy to notice Bryce Harper at the very top, as he's been hotter than the hottest hot that ever hotted over the last month. But overall, this is basically a snapshot of the deep and dangerous offense the Nats were always likely to have in 2015.

Patrick Smith/Getty Images

"We were going to [start hitting]," Harper recently told Bill Ladson of MLB.com. "I think everybody knew that. ... One through nine is such a good lineup. Even our pitcher rakes. It's a lot of fun going in and playing games every single day. We are going to score runs; we need to do things to help our pitchers win ballgames. It's going to be fun."

Obviously, Harper can't stay this hot forever. Neither can the other guys. But at the same time, they don't need to stay hot.

According to their track records, Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond and Jayson Werth are bound to provide their own hot hitting eventually. To that end, Zimmerman has Tuesday's walk-off homer to get him going. Desmond, meanwhile, is heating up with homers in back-to-back games. Werth will have to make his second return from the disabled list before he can do his damage.

As if the Nats needed something else to look forward to, Anthony Rendon won't be injured forever. He's not going to return from knee and oblique injuries anytime soon, but he will eventually.

Once the Nats get Rendon back, they'll be welcoming back a guy who hit .287 with an .824 OPS, 21 homers and 17 steals in 2014. Washington's already-dangerous offense will be glad to have him.

So will its defense, for that matter. While it's definitely a unit that's more than just one good glove away from being the class of the league, having Rendon and his excellent defense back at third base on an everyday basis won't hurt.

And even a modest defensive upgrade could be enough for Washington's pitching staff.

Greg Fiume/Getty Images

It's been something of a disappointment with only a 3.75 ERA, but it also has peripherals that say it's been better than that. This particularly applies to Gio Gonzalez and Stephen Strasburg.

Assuming Gonzalez and Strasburg come around, the Nats will no longer need Max Scherzer (1.75 ERA) and Zimmermann (3.52 ERA) to do all the heavy lifting. That would give them something close to the awesome rotation they were expected to have, and Doug Fister could complete the ensemble if he returns strong from a right forearm injury that currently has him on the disabled list.

At any rate, the Nationals are really good now, and yet they still have the potential to get even better.

You can't say that about any of the other teams in the NL East—no matter how hard you try.

The Miami Marlins were a trendy sleeper pick at the start of the year, but they're currently 16-25 and seemingly directionless. The rebuilding Philadelphia Phillies are 18-24. The Atlanta Braves are 13-19 since a 6-1 start to the season. 

As for those Mets, the good news is that they have one very special asset that should keep them relevant. Led by Matt Harvey and now featuring top prospect Noah Syndergaard, their rotation is awesome. But what they need now is an offense that actually has some teeth, which they simply may not have the parts for.

In the end, we can turn to the fancy-pants computers. The Nationals have already won 24 games, and both Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs project them to win about 70 more. No other team in the NL East is projected to win more than 62 the rest of the way.

So right now, the NL East looks pretty much how it was supposed to look. The Nationals are on top, and all anyone else can hope to do is keep up.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.