5 San Francisco 49ers Starters Facing Make-or-Break Season in 2015
The one constant in the NFL is change. Between 2013 and 2014, the San Francisco 49ers lost Jonathan Goodwin, Carlos Rogers, Donte Whitner and Tarell Brown from their starting lineup. It looks like they’ll be hit even harder this season, with previous opening-day starters Michael Crabtree, Mike Iupati, Frank Gore, Ray McDonald, Justin Smith, Patrick Willis and Chris Culliver all having left the team this offseason.
By the time the 2016 season starts, another batch of players will be replaced. While we don’t have a crystal ball here at Bleacher Report HQ, we can certainly try to identify which players have make-or-break seasons upcoming. That can give us ideas as to which positions are most likely to see replacements next season, as well as what players would have to do to avoid being replaced.
This is somewhat similar to last week’s look at players on the hot seat, but that looked at the entire 90-man roster, not just the starters. While it’s true, for example, that Erik Pears is far from guaranteed to make the 2015 roster, much less the 2016 roster, he’s not competing for a starting position. In fact, Joe Staley and Anthony Davis might be the two most secure starters on the roster.
Instead, we’re limiting the look to the 22 players listed as starters as of right now on Ourlads, with the exception of replacing the just-retired Justin Smith with Darnell Dockett. While there are some odd choices on that list—Nick Moody over Michael Wilhoite? Tony Jerod-Eddie over Tank Carradine?—it’s the best list available in absence of an official team depth chart.
In determining which five players have the most to do to re-earn their starting jobs, I looked at five major indicators:
- How successful the player has been in the recent past. Did they have a bad 2014? Are they recovering from a major injury? Someone like Ian Williams can rest easy simply because he’s been consistently solid when healthy, whereas Marcus Martin has a lot to prove after an awful 2014.
- Who is available to replace the player. Do the 49ers have a young stud waiting in the wings, or would they have use a draft pick to find a replacement? Anthony Davis likely doesn’t have much to fear from Erik Pears, for example, whereas Carlos Hyde has several talented backs behind him.
- How old the player is. As players age, they tend to become less effective as the grind of an NFL career catches up to them. There are fewer seasons left in Anquan Boldin’s legs then there are in Aaron Lynch’s.
- How much the team would save by moving on from the player. Getting rid of Colin Kaepernick would save the 49ers more than $9 million in 2016, according to Over the Cap, whereas Eric Reid would cost the 49ers nearly $3 million more than just keeping him would, making Kaepernick better to cut.
- How much money the team already has penciled in for the player. Upcoming free agents like Vernon Davis don’t currently count anything against the future salary cap, whereas $8.8 million of Joe Staley’s deal isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, making Davis more expendable.
Every single one of San Francisco’s projected 22 starters throws up a red flag in at least one of the five categories. Joe Staley’s over 30-years old, Aaron Lynch would be cheap to cut, Eric Reid had an off-year in 2014, and so on. Some players stand out more than others, however. Here are the five with the most red flags entering the 2015 season.
5. QB Colin Kaepernick
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There is no player more important to the 49ers’ fate in 2015 than their franchise quarterback. After a fantastic season in 2012 and a very solid one in 2013, Kaepernick crashed to earth in 2014. While he started off the season just fine, completing 66.9 percent of his passes over the first four games, Kaepernick eventually cratered out. He threw more interceptions than ever before, absorbed an insane 52 sacks, and set career-lows in yards per attempt, quarterback rating and QBR.
We covered all this in some depth last week, but Kaepernick just looked off last season. He was constantly overthrowing receivers when he wasn’t busy running for his life. An injury-plagued offensive line is certainly a major part of that, and players with similar struggles to Kaepernick have bounced back in recent history, but he played essentially at replacement level in 2014. That’s simply not acceptable.
Kaepernick is scheduled to count $16.8 million against the cap next season, according to OverTheCap nearly doubling any other player on the roster. If he can’t get his play back up to the level it has been in years past, that’s far too much for him. Cutting him after the season would save the 49ers $9.4 million against the 2016 cap, which is enough to cover a rookie with room to spare.
He also will be turning 28 in November. While that’s still well in a quarterback’s prime, he’s moving from being a young player who can still progress as a quarterback to simply being a finished product. Perhaps his offseason work with Kurt Warner will help him with some of the holes in his game, but at a certain point, he is who he is a player. I wouldn’t expect leaps and bounds from him going forward.
Kaepernick’s only fifth on this list because he has two aces in his back pocket. First of all, cutting Kaepernick prior to the 2016 season would put nearly $7.4 million in dead money on the books. While that’s still a significant net-gain for the 49ers, that’s a massive amount of dead money. That’s more than 12 teams currently have in total dead money, for instance, and only five players have larger charges this season than Kaepernick would in 2016—Lamarr Woodley, Ndamukong Suh, Dwayne Bowe, Ray Rice and Jimmy Graham. In short, it’s still a very large pill to swallow.
Secondly, the 49ers do not have a replacement currently ready. Blaine Gabbert is the backup, and he’s already failed as a starter down in Jacksonville. The only other quarterback on the roster is college free agent Dylan Thompson. The $9.4 million in savings isn’t enough by itself to sign a solid veteran quarterback, either; the replacement would essentially have to come from the 2016 draft.
That leaves two ways for Kaepernick to remain on the 2016 roster. First, he could simply revert to form and play like a top-15 NFL quarterback once again, returning to the duel-threat that led the 49ers to the Super Bowl in 2012. Alternatively, he could do just enough to push the 49ers out of range of a top quarterback in next year’s draft—say, drafting somewhere in the 11-15 range. In that scenario, the 49ers might decide to stick with Kaepernick for one more season while developing his successor gradually.
4. CB Tramaine Brock
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After breaking onto the scene in 2013, Brock suffered through an injury-plagued 2014. Hamstring strains and a bum toe limited him to just three games last season, and ineffective ones, at that. After grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 14th-best cornerback in 2013, Brock couldn’t get enough snaps to even qualify for the leaderboards last year. His -3.6 grade would have had him tied in 69th place, for the record.
Brock, who will be 28 when the 2016 season starts up, has also watched as the team has added cornerback after cornerback since he signed his contract extension in November 2013. In the past two years, the 49ers have added Chris Cook, Leon McFadden, Marcus Cromartie, Jimmie Ward, Dontae Johnson, Keith Reaser, Kenneth Acker and Shareece Wright to the roster. That’s a lot of time and capital spent trying to find cornerbacks, and the sheer numbers game implies that at least a few of them will work out.
If Brock can’t return to his 2013 form, he might find himself being pushed out thanks to that 2013 extension. Cutting Brock prior to the 2016 season would save the 49ers $2.4 million against the cap, according to OverTheCap. That’s not enough to sign a number-one cornerback like a Darrelle Revis or Richard Sherman, but there are plenty of projected started who will make less than $2.4 million in 2016. If, say, Jimmie Ward and Dontae Johnson burst onto the scene this year while Brock has another injury plagued season, that salary hit might be enough for the 49ers to move on.
Brock’s not entirely free to cut, of course; a $1.5 million dead-money charge is quite a lot for a cornerback. Even if a couple cornerbacks do burst onto the scene, Brock would still likely be better than any nickel option out there. His recovery from his various injuries will be key to watch, however; it may just leave him vulnerable if the cornerback class of 2014 matures quickly.
3. DE Darnell Dockett
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The defensive line is still very much in flux, with Justin Smith’s retirement announcement on Monday throwing things for a loop. Unlike the Patrick Willis retirement, Smith’s retirement was somewhat expected. However, no firm plans could be made while he was still deliberating.
Dockett was brought in from Arizona as something of a safety option—if Smith retired, Dockett could provide veteran leadership and experience. Dockett has had the best career of anyone else on this list by far; there’s nothing in his history of on-field performance that would make you question his position on a roster.
The major issue Dockett is facing is the fact that he missed the entire 2014 season with a torn ACL, coupled with the fact that he’s turning 34 years old next week. That’s a major injury to recover from at any age, but Dockett’s career was already entering the winding-down phase before his injury. Justin Smith just retired at age 35, and Dockett’s not that much younger.
Dockett has not yet been cleared for minicamp, according to Matt Barrows. It’s only been nine months since his ACL surgery, and he’s still very much in rehab mode, as opposed to getting ready for the season.
As he misses time, that’s giving players like Quinton Dial, Arik Armstead, Tony Jerod-Eddie, Glenn Dorsey and Tank Carradine chances to impress. There’s a few fascinating long-term names in that group, including first-round selection Armstead and Dial, who Jim Tomsula praised at the coaching meetings. If Dockett’s unable to go, the 49ers do have other options.
Dockett’s 2016 salary is entirely non-guaranteed, and weighs in at $3.5 million, according to OverTheCap. That’s a substantial chunk of change for a 35-year old. He’s not only going to have to prove that he can come back from his ACL, but that he’s a better option than those five players listed above, all of whom will be cheaper to keep.
Dockett does have a great career and plenty of experience to lean back on, but that’s his one advantage at the moment. If that doesn’t come through on the field, he’s an easy cut after the season.
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2. CB Shareece Wright
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Twenty of the 22 projected starters for the 49ers have something that they can point to as being in their corner when trying to keep their starting job through 2016. Darnell Dockett has years of high level play. Tramaine Brock has significant amounts of dead money. Colin Kaepernick lacks a logical replacement. Marcus Martin is very young. Tony Jerod-Eddie is cheap. The list goes on.
The last two players, however, raise up red flags in all five categories mentioned at the beginning, making them the two players with the most to prove in 2015, if they want to remain 49ers next season.
Shareece Wright was brought in as a free agent from San Diego to partially replace the departed Chris Culliver. That’s not precisely a trade up, as Wright has struggled in his NFL career. He led the NFL in pass interference penalties last season with eight. His Pro Football Focus grades over the last two seasons have been -13.4 and -16.8, putting him in the bottom 10 in both 2013 and 2014. In short, his on-field play hasn’t inspired a lot of hope recently.
He can’t really be considered a developmental player at this point either; this will be his fifth season in the league, and he turned 28 in April. We should be in the prime of his career, but that hasn’t really been the case in San Diego.
His contract is fairly massive for a player with that track record. It’s a one-year deal for just under $3 million, with half of it fully guaranteed. That pretty much assures him of a roster spot in 2015, which is an odd total to give a player who’s play has been questionable for multiple seasons.
Like Tramaine Brock, Wright also has to fend off the large group of second-year cornerbacks the 49ers took in 2014, with Dontae Johnson being the most likely to beat him out for a starting spot on the outside. The 49ers have other options besides Wright.
It’s the definition of a one-year prove it deal, and Wright will have to be an entirely different player than he has been the last two years to justify getting a longer contract next offseason.
1. TE Vernon Davis
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Vernon Davis held out of minicamp last year, wanting a new contract. He didn’t end up getting one, and returned to the 49ers.
He then put up his worst season since at least his rookie year. He caught only 26 passes for 245 yards and two touchdowns. His blocking was notably worse. He was banged up with injuries. He simply wasn’t the same player who made the Pro Bowl in 2013. His Pro Football Focus grade of -15.8 is, by far, his worst in his career, and had him 62nd out of 67 qualifying tight ends. It was a disaster.
Davis turned 31 this offseason, as well, and that’s getting up there for a tight end. The list of 31 and older tight ends who have really contributed in the last decade is Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates, Jason Witten and Heath Miller. Performing at a high level in your 30s at the tight end position is simply not normally done.
Davis will cost the 49ers nearly $7 million against the cap this season, and is not under contract for 2016 and beyond. If he wants to continue his 49ers career after this, he’s almost certainly going to have to accept a significant pay cut going forward.
Even if he does, the 49ers are suddenly quite bloated at the tight end position. Behind Davis, the 49ers have Garrett Celek, Derek Carrier, Vance McDonald, Asante Cleveland, Xavier Grimble and this year’s two draft picks, Blake Bell and Busta Anderson. The 49ers are clearly planning for life without Davis, whenever that occurs.
Simply put, Davis is old, expensive, coming off of his worst season and has players nipping at his heels, all while playing on an expiring contract. He would have to put up a phenomenal season to be re-signed as a free agent this off season. He’s going to need to return to his form of 2013 or before, or he might have trouble finding a contract with any NFL team next offseason.
Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Follow him @BryKno on twitter.
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