NBA Lottery 2015: What Each Team Would Do with the No. 1 Pick
NBA draft prognosticators, gather 'round—it's time to whip out the pencils, legal pads and calculators in order to peg which player each lottery team would take if the ping-pong balls bounce just right Tuesday night.
While obtaining the No. 1 pick may seem like a pipe dream for most of the teams involved in this year's lottery, recent history suggests more franchises have a shot at snagging the draft's biggest prize than the percentages lead us to believe.
By examining each team's most glaring positional need and the prospect who can best address those deficiencies, we outline how fortuitous lottery proceedings can accelerate growth across the Association.
Specifically, we identified clubs' thinnest positions based on the lack of depth at those spots, last season's performances and the number of players set to explore their values in free agency.
For the purposes of this slideshow, lottery teams are listed in ascending order of their odds at obtaining the No. 1 pick. Thus, we'll start with the Oklahoma City Thunder and close with the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Oklahoma City Thunder
1 of 14
No. 1 Pick Odds: 0.5 percent
Ideal No. 1 Pick: Jahlil Okafor
No team with odds lower than 1 percent has ever leaped to the top lottery spot, so the Oklahoma City Thunder shouldn't be holding their breath in anticipation of Tuesday night's drawing.
But if they improbably make history, it would be hard for the Thunder to pass up on a dominant low-post presence like Duke Blue Devils star Jahlil Okafor.
The Thunder already have their franchise point guard in Russell Westbrook, so that eliminates Ohio State guard D'Angelo Russell from the equation. They also have a wildly athletic shot-blocker and jump-shooter at the 4 in Serge Ibaka, so that strikes Kentucky Wildcats big man Karl-Anthony Towns from the ledger.
That leaves Okafor, the dynamic low-post scoring presence Oklahoma City has lacked for so long. While Kevin Durant and Westbrook give OKC arguably the league's most dynamic one-two scoring punch with their combination of inside and outside prowess, Okafor is the sort of talent who can make magic with his back to the basket.
Okafor's acquisition would be a coup from a long-term standpoint in a number of regards, but it would afford the Thunder the luxury of not having to pay (or possibly overpay) for Enes Kanter this summer.
At present, the Thunder will need to extend a $7.4 million qualifying offer to make Kanter a restricted free agent. However, if the team were to land Okafor, it would renounce Kanter's rights and proceed with a more cost-effective option in the middle.
Phoenix Suns
2 of 14
No. 1 Pick Odds: 0.6 percent
Ideal No. 1 Pick: Jahlil Okafor
This is a process-of-elimination pick.
With Eric Bledsoe and restricted free agent Brandon Knight presumably holding down the two starting backcourt spots, Russell isn't a natural fit.
The same goes for Towns at the 4, where Markieff and Marcus Morris combined to eat up 77 percent of the Suns' available minutes last season, per 82games.com.
That leaves Okafor, who would be an immediate upgrade over incumbent starting center Alex Len.
Unlike Len, Okafor is a born post scorer who will step onto the NBA hardwood and immediately make his presence felt. A jump-hook maestro who uses his powerful upper body to complement some feathery foot movement, Okafor could change the complexion of Phoenix's offense in one fell swoop.
Utah Jazz
3 of 14
No. 1 Pick Odds: 0.7 percent
Ideal No. 1 Pick: D'Angelo Russell, PG/SG, Ohio State
Utah Jazz head coach Quin Snyder has preached the merits of positionless basketball ever since the team hired him last summer, and that philosophy is what makes Russell an intriguing fit with the Western Conference up-and-comers.
Although the Jazz have selected guards Dante Exum and Trey Burke in each of the past two drafts, Russell would allow the team to experiment with some funky new backcourt permutations.
Primarily, Snyder could roll with the 6'5'' Russell and the 6'6'' Exum, which would give Utah a frightening amount of length. Throw Alec Burks into that equation, and Snyder would rarely be short on options, as far as one-two punches go, at his guard spots.
With Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors already holding down the frontcourt and Gordon Hayward entrenched as the team's small forward, that's a group capable of building on tremendous late-season success.
And after Jazz point guards ranked 25th in scoring at the position last season, per HoopsStats.com, a confident, decisive Russell could provide the spark Utah needs to crack the playoff picture.
Indiana Pacers
4 of 14
No. 1 Pick Odds: 0.8 percent
Ideal No. 1 Pick: Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky
Let's have a little fun.
The Indiana Pacers reportedly want to play a faster brand of ball next season, and there's no better fit for that scheme than Kentucky center Willie Cauley-Stein.
That's especially true after Pacers president of basketball operations Larry Bird told Cauley-Stein he believes he's a "$100 million player," according to the Indianapolis Star's Candace Buckner.
Based on the Pacers' on-court direction and Cauley-Stein's skill set, the fit makes perfect sense.
Head coach Frank Vogel has openly discussed a diminished role for current starting center Roy Hibbert, whose plodding style is an aesthetic 180 from Cauley-Stein's aggressive, rim-rocking, ball-swatting approach.
During his junior season at Kentucky, Cauley-Stein finished second in the SEC in defensive rating (88.0) and topped the conference charts in defensive win shares (3.4). However, Cauley-Stein's physical tools and rare athleticism for a 7-footer are what make him a hot commodity at the next level.
DraftExpress' Jonathan Givony explains:
"He legitimately guarded five positions for Kentucky this season, showing incredible versatility and agility covering ground on the perimeter and staying in front of players much smaller than him. His exceptionally quick feet give him the ability to switch seamlessly on pick and rolls, and he does a great job of contesting shots on the perimeter or recovering into the paint and offering rim protection. Cauley-Stein averaged a terrific 3.6 blocks and 1.8 steals per-40 minutes over the course of his career at Kentucky, showing outstanding instincts for forcing turnovers.
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Not only can Cauley-Stein's quickness allow him to guard 1 through 5, but it will also help jump-start an offense that is seeking to push the pace and turn defensive stops into quicker buckets on the other end.
Miami Heat
5 of 14
No. 1 Pick Odds: 1.1 percent
Ideal No. 1 Pick: D'Angelo Russell, PG/SG, Ohio State
The Miami Heat struck gold with Hassan Whiteside, and you can't beat a $981,348 salary for a studly young center in the last season before a cap spike. That doesn't necessarily mean the team should forget Okafor and Towns, but it does afford Miami some flexibility in its decision-making process, should the Heat jump up nine spots.
In lieu of selecting a big, Miami could try to plan for the future by nabbing Russell, a combo guard who has all of the tools necessary to be Dwyane Wade's heir apparent and provide some desperately needed second-unit punch in the interim.
After all, he did deem himself "the best player in the draft" at a media session during the combine, according to the Philadelphia 76ers' Vine account.
In addition to heading up the Heat's lineups of the future with his special blend of skills that bridge the two guard positions, Russell's game has already matured enough to lead a second unit.
DraftExpress' Jonathan Givony provides the evidence:
"Russell is extremely difficult to contain in pick and roll situations for this reason, as he has an elite ability to operate at different speeds, utilize smooth hesitation moves, and take what the defense gives him. His passing ability is arguably his best attribute at the moment, as he sees the floor wonderfully at 6-5 and shows incredible creativity and skill for a player his age, constantly probing the defense and whipping balls all over the floor with utmost confidence.
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He's extremely unselfish, not afraid to throw the ball ahead in transition to ignite the offense, even if he won't get credited with an assist. He often sees plays developing before they actually materialize in the half-court, and will move the ball calmly and quickly in the flow of the offense, getting his team an easy quick-hitting basket before the defense can react.
The bigs will always be tempting, but Miami's never had a problem embracing smaller lineups. And if backcourt flash intrigues you, just consider the havoc a Russell-Goran Dragic pairing could wreak, should the Slovenian point man re-up with the Heat this summer.
Charlotte Hornets
6 of 14
No. 1 Pick Odds: 1.7 percent
Ideal No. 1 Pick: D'Angelo Russell, PG/SG, Ohio State
This is the pick to watch.
Twice in the last seven years, a team with a 1.7 percent chance of capturing the No. 1 overall selection vaulted all the way up to scoop it.
Occupying what was presumed to be the ninth spot in the lottery, the Chicago Bulls and Cleveland Cavaliers both struck gold, emerging with Derrick Rose and Andrew Wiggins, respectively.
So why does Ohio State's Russell make sense? Well, for a couple of reasons.
First, the Charlotte Hornets desperately need a secondary ball-handler to complement Kemba Walker after Lance Stephenson proved incapable of filling that role.
Second, Charlotte has a carbon copy of Okafor in the middle with Al Jefferson, and it just spent a lottery selection on versatile 4-man Noah Vonleh last year.
With the team able to void Stephenson's contract following the 2015-16 season, Gerald Henderson entering the final year of his deal (should he exercise a $6 million player option) and P.J. Hairston still a work in progress, the Hornets need to think about how they can harvest long-term stability at the 2.
Charlotte could also stand to add a dynamite perimeter scorer, but there aren't any available this year worth spending the No. 1 overall pick on.
The answer, then, would be Russell. At 6'5'', he can orchestrate the offense or play off the ball. Plus, his ability to probe will function as a dual-threat tool that results in determined looks at the cup or open looks for outside shooters.
Detroit Pistons
7 of 14
No. 1 Pick Odds: 2.8 percent
Ideal No. 1 Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns, PF/C, Kentucky
The Detroit Pistons' most pressing need is at small forward, and that's not up for debate.
Duke swingman Justise Winslow could provide a huge lift to a group that will—at best—return Caron Butler and Cartier Martin and at worst watch both depart alongside unrestricted free agent Tayshaun Prince.
However, the Pistons would be foolish not to make a play for Towns if they leapfrog six other teams and land in the top spot—and it all has to do with Greg Monroe's potential departure.
After Monroe accepted the Pistons' qualifying offer last summer, he set himself up for a generous payday this July—finishing as one of eight players to average at least 15 points and 10 rebounds during the 2014-15 campaign.
Based on that production, teams should be lining up to throw sacks of money Monroe's way. And that could open up a starting spot at the 4 in Detroit.
Enter Towns, who could work beautifully with Andre Drummond in a frontcourt partnership. While Drummond is largely confined to working around the restricted area and on the low blocks, Towns has the skills to float outside the paint and play a role similar to Monroe's.
"He is very mature and polished for a player his age and should be able to develop into quite a weapon in pick-and-roll, pick-and-pop or dribble-handoff situations with better spacing and shooting around him in the NBA—giving him the ability to play alongside another paint-oriented big man if needed," DraftExpress' Jonathan Givony wrote.
An improved mid-range jumper would do wonders for Towns' game, but the fact that he could team up with Drummond to form one of the NBA's most imposing rim-protecting duos is reason enough for Pistons fans to drool over the 19-year-old's talent.
Denver Nuggets
8 of 14
No. 1 Pick Odds: 4.3 percent
Ideal No. 1 Pick: D'Angelo Russell, PG/SG, Ohio State
The Denver Nuggets' relationship with Ty Lawson is reportedly on the rocks, so it only makes sense for them to target Russell if their slim odds transform into some good fortune.
According to the Denver Post's Christopher Dempsey, Lawson's suddenly "as susceptible to the next good trade offer as any other tradable player in the NBA." On top of that, Grantland's Zach Lowe reported that the Nuggets and Boston Celtics had discussions regarding a potential Lawson deal at the February deadline that never materialized.
So as Lawson wades into uncertain waters, Denver can hedge its bets by adding a bigger, stronger playmaker like Russell, who's better suited for modern schemes that value versatility.
Okafor and Towns would deserve consideration, but with Kenneth Faried under contract for four more years and Jusuf Nurkic on a team-controlled rookie deal, it makes sense to target the draft's most skilled guard.
Sacramento Kings
9 of 14
No. 1 Pick Odds: 6.3 percent
Ideal No. 1 Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns, PF/C, Kentucky
Who's up for a 10-year reunion? The last time a team with 6.3 percent odds landed in the No. 1 spot was in 2005, when the Milwaukee Bucks went on to select Australian center Andrew Bogut.
Sticking with the big-man theme, the Sacramento Kings would be silly not to go after a guy who can single-handedly solve their woes at the 4.
That man would be Towns.
With Towns saddled up next to DeMarcus Cousins, the Kings would instantly tout one of the NBA's most intimidating frontcourt duos—one that could do everything from scoring in the post and facing up from mid-range to dropping dimes with slick big-to-big passing while leading the occasional fast-break opportunity.
After the Kings passed on Vonleh in order to select Nik Stauskas a year ago, the team can't afford to go small again and toy around with retread options at the 4.
Towns is the answer—one Sacramento would be lucky to have.
Orlando Magic
10 of 14
No. 1 Pick Odds: 8.8 percent
Ideal No. 1 Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns, PF/C, Kentucky
If versatility is the name of the game, then the Orlando Magic should be salivating at the chance to select Towns with the draft's top pick.
At 7'0'' and 248 pounds, Towns is capable of playing both power forward and center, with his developing jump shot serving as a nice complement to his brutish strength on the blocks. His post game may not be—and may never be—as refined as Okafor's, but his style of play would mesh brilliantly with Magic center Nikola Vucevic.
Since Vucevic isn't pigeonholed as a back-to-the-basket or face-up big, Orlando will be able to craft sets that utilize both players' strengths.
If the Magic want to drag Vucevic's defender away from the basket, they can slide him out to 18 feet and let him shoot the mid-range jumpers that he nailed at a career-best 46.8 percent clip this season.
Or, if Vucevic has a matchup conducive to post play, Towns can hover around the free-throw line and work from mid-range.
In short, the possibilities with those two would be endless.
And since Vucevic isn't an above-the-rim athlete, Towns could bring some shot-blocking reinforcements for a team that ranked 29th in rejections during the 2014-15 campaign.
Los Angeles Lakers
11 of 14
No. 1 Pick Odds: 11.9 percent
Ideal No. 1 Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns, PF/C, Kentucky
All Kentucky all the time.
With former Wildcats star Julius Randle on the mend after suffering a broken leg in his first game as a pro, the Los Angeles Lakers will finally get an extended look at what their big bully looks like down on the blocks.
So to complement him, why not roll with another Wildcats star in Towns?
As Randle prefers to accentuate his strength and muscle by bowling over opponents below the free-throw line, Towns can be the offensive supplement the Los Angeles Lakers need to help provide balance.
While his jump shot is a work in progress, signs point to its becoming a significant part of his NBA arsenal down the line.
"Unlike most 7-footers, Towns has no problem operating from the high post or even further out, being very smart and reliable with the ball in his hands," DraftExpress' Jonathan Givony wrote. "He can execute half-court sets intelligently, passing the ball accurately out of the low post or the elbow, doing a nice job in high-low situations."
The Lakers will need to avoid transferring their top-five-protected first-round pick to the Philadelphia 76ers, but if they do, Towns could be the multipositional and multidimensional talent they need to help generate success as a new era gets underway.
Philadelphia 76ers
12 of 14
No. 1 Pick Odds: 15.6 percent
Ideal No. 1 Pick: D'Angelo Russell, PG/SG, Ohio State
Two years ago, the Cleveland Cavaliers accomplished what the Philadelphia 76ers are dreaming of achieving on lottery night. With the third-best odds to obtain the top pick, the draft gods smiled down on Cleveland and granted it the No. 1 pick for the second time in three years (now three times in four years after last summer).
Sadly, the Cavs spent that selection on Anthony Bennett, but the Sixers brain trust—unconventional as it may be—isn't in a position to shock the league like that.
Rather, the Sixers should have their sights set on one player: Russell.
With Joel Embiid and Nerlens Noel locked in as the franchise's frontcourt of the future, the team needs to start rounding out its starting five with scorers and ball-handlers. Russell checks both of those boxes.
But how unique is Russell's talent? Let's just say he's not bashful when it comes to making comparisons to Stephen Curry.
"I don't want to sound like I'm overdoing it since he's the MVP of the league," Russell said, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer's Keith Pompey. "But when I watch his game, I see myself. The plays he makes, the shots he takes and passes he makes, I see it before it even happens. I feel like that's what separates me from a lot."
With Tony Wroten being the only sure ball-handler in Philadelphia's rotation at the moment, Russell and his vast array of combo-guard skills could help accelerate the Sixers' rebuild in tandem with a healthy Embiid.
New York Knicks
13 of 14
No. 1 Pick Odds: 19.9 percent
Ideal No. 1 Pick: Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke
The New York Knicks are searching for hope, and Okafor can provide some in a big way.
Not only is Okafor the most polished offensive player in this year's draft, but he also fills a need smack-dab in the middle of the Knicks lineup.
"Okafor is a rare breed, a true center who can score in the post with a variety of moves," ESPN.com's Jeff Goodman wrote. "He's a high-basketball IQ guy with tremendous footwork and hands. He would take some of the pressure off Carmelo Anthony on the offensive end, but needs to improve on the defensive side of the floor."
Despite a perceived lack of foot speed, Okafor shouldn't be viewed as a deficient defender, according to his trainer, Rick Lewis.
The New York Post's Marc Berman relayed Lewis' comments:
"Defensively there is no issue with his lateral movement or rim protection. Every team has a different style of defense and scheme of defense that they promote off the pick and roll. In his last two years of high school, he had an aggressive defensive scheme and had to come up and defend on the pick and roll, and was able to.
When you get a coach whose assignments are different, he has to do what his coaches tell him to do. The rim protection piece is basically foul trouble. Having guards coming at you, he was trying to stay out of foul trouble, trying to stay on the floor versus being off the floor. You will see his lateral movement and rim protection and see him defend help-side defense and on-the-ball defense. They allow more contract in the NBA.
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After leading the ACC in player efficiency rating (30.7), total points (657), offensive rebounds (134) and field-goal percentage (66.4) during his freshman season, Okafor should be a no-brainer selection for the Knicks if they get bumped up a spot.
Minnesota Timberwolves
14 of 14
No. 1 Pick Odds: 25 percent
Ideal No. 1 Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns
Towns has the versatile toolbox the Minnesota Timberwolves need at No. 1 overall. The question is this: Will they be the first team on the clock?
According to RealGM, the last club with top lottery odds to actually pick in that spot was the Orlando Magic in 2004.
Eleven years ago.
But if things play out according to the odds, Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman believes Towns should be the Timberwolves' pick:
"Towns just makes too much sense for the Minnesota Timberwolves, who could use some frontcourt versatility and rim protection defensively.
Towns' low-post game got sharper with every month of the season. And though he didn't take many jumpers, his 81.3 percent free-throw stroke highlights his stretch 4 or 5 potential.
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Should Towns make his way to the Land of 10,000 Lakes, he would likely have an opportunity to learn from a former developmental stretch 4 in Kevin Garnett.
Back in February, the Associated Press' Jon Krawczynski reported that the Timberwolves were looking to sign Garnett for two more years now that his deal has expired.
Should Garnett return, Towns would have a mentor to help accelerate his growth as an outside shooter, passer and rebounder—advice that would be invaluable to a player entering the league at 19 years old.
All statistics are courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and Sports-Reference.com unless noted otherwise.
All salary information retrieved from Basketball Insiders.
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